What Is The Impact Of Us Continuous Interest Rate Increase On The A Share Market?

Again to the US interest rate season. According to the arrangement, the Fed will discuss the interest rate increase next week. From the current economic indicators released by the United States, the overall economic situation in the US has been improving. This also makes the Fed raise interest rates next week. Despite the increase in the US interest rate season, despite the fact that market participants are talking about raising interest rates in the US, the impact of US interest rate hikes on A shares is negligible. Instead of paying close attention to the impact of US interest rate hikes on A shares, investors should pay close attention to the impact of IPO accelerating the issuance of A shares. Instead, we should pay close attention to the impact of important shareholders' cash dividend on the A share market, because the impact of IPO and important shareholders on A shares is much more direct than that of the US.

Originally, if only for this interest rate increase, talking about its impact on the A share market, we can say that the US interest rate increase has limited impact on A shares. But our industry has a strong sense of urgency. It seems that the United States is afraid of raising interest rates to scare investors in the A share market. It is hard to say that after the interest rate increase in March, the United States has 3 interest rates hike this year. And eventually raise interest rates several times, of course, only time can give an answer. But the United States raised interest rate series of guns is really scary. As a result, domestic investors are more concerned about the impact of US interest rate hikes on the A share market.

So what is the impact of the US interest rate increase, especially the continuous interest rate increase, on the A share market? In a sentence commenting on the impact of IPO on accelerating the issuance of the A share market, it is "not a scourge". And the impact of US interest rate hike on the A share market is accelerating with the issuance of IPO. A share market In contrast, I believe that the impact of US interest rate hikes on A shares is much less than that of IPO. According to Liu Shiyu, chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, it is impossible to stabilize the stock index and finance. In other words, IPO has limited or no effect on the development of the market, so the impact of US interest rate hike on A shares can be ignored.

After all, when the United States Conference on interest rates is convened at all times, it is open and transparent. If the economic situation of the United States is optimistic, the possibility of raising interest rates will be greater. If the economic situation becomes worse, the possibility of raising interest rates will become smaller. In short, the sudden increase in US interest rates is very small. Therefore, the news of interest rate increase can usually be digested ahead of time. Once true Increase interest On the contrary, it is all bad. Therefore, the impact of US interest rate hike on the market is not big. As for the United States this year, the 3 time of raising interest rates or raising interest rates for 4 times, we need to combine the specific situation at that time to make a judgement. Moreover, even raising interest rates is a one time increase, rather than a few interest rates to concentrate together, the stock market has been bombarded. And this interest rate rises to the stock market. negative effect The stock market can also be digested again and again.

Of course, there is another important reason why the US interest rate increase has limited impact on A shares, which is that the A index is not high at present. Because the A share index is only around 3200, rather than at 6124 near historical highs. The current position for the A share market, the overall decline in the space is limited. So in this case, even the introduction of US interest rate increase has little impact on A shares. In other words, if A shares are standing near historical highs, or like the US stock market, the impact of US interest rate hikes will be much larger. But unfortunately, A shares are not American stocks, but they are still just reptiles, and they can not constitute the target of US interest rate hike. Therefore, for the A-share market, it is not necessary to be self serving, even swollen and cheeky. It seems that A is standing at 8000 or even 10 thousand points.

In addition, the A share market is a market with limited opening to the outside world. This also determines the fact that foreign factors have little impact on the A share market, and also determines that the A share market has some immunity to foreign factors. This is the case in Britain, and so did Trump's election to the US presidency, including the impact of US interest rate hikes on A shares in December last year. A set of data is very revealing. At present, the total market capitalization of the A share market reaches 53 trillion yuan, and at the end of the three quarter, the market value of QFII holding A shares is 122 billion 523 million yuan, accounting for only 0.24%, and the weight in the A share market can almost be fooled. Therefore, even if the US raises interest rates, all of these foreign capital withdrawal from A shares (in fact is impossible) will not affect the A share market.

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