Financial Observation: Interpretation Of Supply Side Structural Reform

In the deepening of supply side structural reform, consumption, investment and exports are driving our country.

How can the "three carriages" advance? Where is the policy force?

"To promote the expansion and upgrading of consumer spending, the total volume of retail sales of consumer goods is expected to increase by about 10% this year. The effective expansion of effective investment will lead to an increase of 9% in fixed assets investment in the whole society, and push forward the steady growth of foreign trade."

This is related to the deployment of the national development and Reform Commission's report on the implementation of the plan for national economic and social development in 2016 and the draft plan for national economic and social development in 2017 (hereinafter referred to as the plan report).

Entrusted by the State Council, the report was submitted to the five session of the twelve National People's Congress for examination and approval.

Consumption slow load "slow variable" fast upgrade

In March 12th, Li Wei, director of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out at the "Ministerial channel of the two sessions" that China's economic development is changing from the first half of the first half to the upgrading stage of the second half, and the economic trend is expected to change from "L" to "one vertical".

From the perspective of macro economic structure change, it is an effective way to bid farewell to extensive expansion and seek endogenous growth.

Gu Shengzu, vice chairman of the finance and Economic Commission of the National People's Congress and vice chairman of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China, told Xinhua that in the process of economic growth, investment is a "fast variable", which can turn the tide when the economy is down. Consumption is a "slow variable", and its role in economic growth is becoming more and more important.

Since 2011, consumption has gradually started to play a leading role, and its contribution to GDP growth has been maintained at more than 45% annually.

Li Xiaochao, deputy director of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that in 2016, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth was 64.6%, 22.4 percentage points higher than the total capital formation, and the situation of economic growth driven too dependent on investment has changed.

"Consumption is the most powerful in the" three carriages ", and this momentum will continue this year.

Gao Hu Cheng, member of the CPPCC National Committee and former chief of the Ministry of Commerce.

Online shopping is a major highlight of consumption growth.

In 2016, the volume of online retail sales in the first place broke 5 trillion yuan mark, and the growth rate was 15.8 percentage points faster than that of social consumer goods retail sales.

In 1-2 months of this year, online retail continued to grow, with a growth rate of 31.9%.

According to the index established in the "13th Five-Year development plan" of e-commerce, the total retail sales of the network will reach about 10 trillion yuan in 2020.

In addition, the plan report also put forward a clear decision signal to promote the consumption of information, such as the combination of medical care and family, tourism and other emerging consumption and digital family, online education and so on, and create a new consumption engine.

The sustainable growth of quantity is closely related to the effective promotion of quality.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of School of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, believes that there is still much room for improvement in consumer motivation and the need to improve matching between supply and demand.

Li Wei also suggested opening up the intermediate links from demand to enterprises to expand the supply of high quality products and services.

Investment is stable and rebound, value Entrepreneurship

Economic development has entered a new normal, and the demand for accurate and effective investment and short board has been further improved.

Li Pumin, Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the scale of investment in fixed assets of 32 provincial units (including Xinjiang production and Construction Corps) will reach about 65 trillion this year.

From the perspective of composition, investment demand depends on the growth of the three fixed assets investment in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing industry. The growth rate of investment started this year has rebounded in an all-round way.

Wang Yiming, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, predicts that investment growth is expected to stabilize bottom this year, infrastructure investment remains high, manufacturing investment rebounded slightly and new cycle of enterprise inventory cycle will be hedged in real estate investment callbacks.

From the regional perspective, investment in the eastern, central, Western and northeast areas increased by 9.1%, 12%, 12.2% and 23.5%, respectively.

This year, the "four big plates" will be strengthened and short and classified, and the development pattern will be optimized.

For example, the three year rolling plan for promoting the revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China has been fully landed, and the scale of investment in major projects is over trillion yuan.

Last year, private sector fixed assets investment, which accounted for about 60% of the total, increased by 3.2%, which was somewhat lower than the double-digit growth rate in 2015.

Li Wei's analysis shows that there are both old contradictions and new problems, among which entrepreneurs are expected to be very critical. "We need to take practical actions to enhance entrepreneurs' confidence and focus on innovation and entrepreneurship."

Last year, the State Council launched a nationwide supervision of private investment organizations in order to boost investment confidence in private enterprises.

In September, the NDRC and the relevant departments formulated 26 articles to promote private investment.

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In November, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the full text of the proposal to improve the property rights protection system and protect property rights according to law.

In this year's "government work report", a complete paragraph is set forth to "strengthen the building of property rights protection system" and further respond to the concerns of the business community and even the whole society.

Gu Shengzu agrees with this: "to improve the institutional environment for the development of private enterprises, reconstruct the new relationship between government and business, protect property rights, enable private enterprises to invest in confidence, and have a good expectation of investment."

Zhang Yong, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said during the two sessions: "the measures adopted by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council are in effect.

Since last August, the growth rate of private investment has begun to stabilize.

The latest data confirm this study.

In the 1-2 months of this year, private investment increased by 6.7%, a 11 month high.

"I think this trend will continue."

There are three main reasons for the interpretation of Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics: the policy effect continues to appear; the market environment is improving; the government's PPP project is landing faster.

Speaking of the PPP project, Xiao Jie, Minister of finance, said that as of the end of last year, 1351 contracts had been signed, with a total investment of 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan, and the project landing rate exceeded 30%. Compared with the beginning of the year, the number of projects landing and the scale of investment increased by more than 4 times.

What is worth noting is that the plan report also proposes that we should implement the system of property rights protection and protect property rights according to law this year, and implement the policy of stimulating and protecting entrepreneurship. We should improve the policy system that supports entrepreneurs to concentrate on innovation and entrepreneurship.

Two effective ways to cultivate new advantages in foreign trade

The industry generally believes that with the gradual appreciation of the appreciation of the dollar, the fundamental improvement of the emerging economies, the stabilization of commodity prices and the improvement of the foreign trade environment, if there is no big change in the world economy, the export situation will improve this year and is expected to turn negative.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said the external environment of exports was not optimistic. But considering the low base, the efforts of stabilizing exports and the competitiveness of exports increased.

In fact, compared to the growth target, China's foreign trade in the "13th Five-Year" period is more focused on optimizing the structure and cultivating new competitive advantages.

All sides have high hopes for the potential of service trade and the opportunity of "one belt and one road".

"Promoting exports to be pformed from goods to goods, services, technology and capital output" is listed as the main goal of the "13th Five-Year plan" of foreign trade development, and is also one of the most effective starting points for China to foster new competitive advantages in foreign trade.

The scale of service trade has increased continuously in recent years.

In 2016, the import and export volume of goods in China decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous year, while the total import and export volume of services increased by 14.2% over the previous year, accounting for 18% of the total foreign trade.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that from the perspective of the international industrial chain, services, technology and capital will occupy a more important position. Trade in services is the potential for China's future growth in foreign trade.

Last year, the demand for international market was sluggish, and the import and export counter trend of China and the countries along the "belt and road" was increasing positively, and accounted for 25.9% of the total foreign trade volume in the same period.

Gu Shengzu said that because of the rise of trade protectionism and the emergence of "reverse globalization" this year, our foreign demand will be affected. Promoting the construction of "one belt and one road" can hedge the risk of external demand to a certain extent.

At the same time, we should pay attention to docking with the strategies put forward by the countries along the line, and mobilize the enthusiasm of the countries along the line.

On the policy mix, we must focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development, innovating supply and activating demand: the combination of long and short management, meticulous management of investment expectations; the upgrading of consumption engines under the Internet; the coordination of internal and external coordination, and the promotion of exports to the middle and high end by multiple factors, so that the "three horse riding vehicle" can release new kinetic energy. This year, China's economy is expected to move at a more stable pace and always be in a more balanced, coordinated and sustainable development track.

More interesting reports, please pay attention.

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