The Location Of The Main Board And Small And Medium Sized Enterprises Should Be Rational To Invest In The Stock Market.

In the past 2014-15 years, the ups and downs of the market and the sharp rise and fall of the market have left us with too much memory and even unforgettable memories.

And all this, loose and tight liquidity plays a very crucial role.

Therefore, attention is paid to mobility.

One of the logic of pessimists is that the central bank raises the open market.

It is a disguised increase in interest rates, liquidity has inflection point.

Historically, interest rates have two scenarios.

One is systematic uplink, such as 07 -08 March, 10 October, -11 July, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio. Once this happens, we will switch to bear market thinking, whether it is Xiong Mingtian bear or bear bear today, anyway, it is bear market anyway.

Because the central bank shrinks the money, it signs that money will go back to the banking system, and all asset prices will fall, whether it is stocks, bonds, futures or artworks.

Another scenario is that the central bank only adjusts interest rates structurally, and has raised the repo rate for deleveraging in 2013, which has little impact on the market.

What is the difference between the two? The core is to see a value - inflation has no pressure in CPI.2013, and the central bank has not systematically tightened the currency, only to adjust the open market interest rate for the leverage of the debt market. In that year, the stock market had structural opportunities, and the main board was in a state of concussion and concussion.

This year's monetary policy environment is more like 2013, but only the main board and small and medium sized companies have changed their positions.

Another worry about liquidity is deleveraging.

Pessimists believe that when banks restore their balance sheets, the real economy has a lot of downward pressure.

Indeed, from the point of view of the US, Europe and Hongkong, deleveraging of these economies is often the beginning of a new economic downturn, but China's deleveraging is likely to be the end of the previous economic downturn.

Because our institutional background is different.

The developed economies in Europe and the United States are highly market-oriented.

They adjust the real economy through financial means. When deleveraging, the business cycle is shrinking and the real economy is slowing down.

China is not a complete market economy. The government is a very strong participant. It will interfere in the economy and affect the rhythm and order of economic operation.

In 1999, when the Chinese government set up four major management companies to deal with bank bad debts, the growth rate of GDP was the lowest.

Because before that, the real economy has already demolished the "thunder". GDP has dropped 6 years from 1993 to 1999, which has inhibited the overheated investment, and a large number of state-owned workers have been laid off for re employment.

The supply side structural reform put forward "to capacity, leverage, inventory", in reality, the implementation of the order is "to capacity, inventory, leverage", deleveraging has not yet been implemented, the first year to shrink capacity, deal with real estate to inventory, the real economy "thunder" has been removed, then deleveraging is just a tail, after all, our total debt rate is not terrible, the government to leverage, leveraged, is in time for space.

China's economic growth is likely to have found the bottom of the medium term, and economic stability is the prerequisite for improving corporate profits.

There is no difference in the short term. They all think that the short-term inventory will be upward and the difference will be in the medium term.

In the medium term, we can see the Kuznets cycle and the Zhu La cycle, representing the growth rate of real estate investment and fixed capital growth rate representing the Kuznets cycle, representing the capacity utilization rate and the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry, which are basically at the bottom stage of the past twenty or thirty years.

One of the logic that worries that economic growth is not stable is not seeing new growth momentum, similar to real estate and WTO after 2000.

In fact, growth does not need such a great deal of strength. What is discussed is stability, not rebound.

Looking back, the developed economies such as the United States and Japan have gone through two stages. GDP accelerated growth from small to large. After that, the L type went back to the middle and low level, that is, GDP grew steadily from big to strong.

China's economic growth is likely to enter this stage, and consumption upgrading supports the resilience of economic growth.

Two, in the context of economic stability, why can corporate profits go up? In the past 30 years, the growth of corporate earnings has indeed been accompanied by economic growth.

If we look at it from a long-term perspective, we can divide the relationship between the two into two stages.

Drawing on overseas experience, economic growth can be divided into two stages. One is Adams's intensive investment growth driven by factor inputs, which is the growth of volume. At this time, the speed of corporate earnings growth is closely related to the growth of GDP. The two is the innovation driven growth of bear and Pete style, which is a qualitative improvement.

For example, Japan, after World War II, was the first stage from 1945 to 1968. A large number of investment drove the economy to take off rapidly. GDP was around 9% in the same period last year, and the profit growth rate and the economic growth rate changed synchronously.

The 1974-1989 year is the second stage. After 68-74 years and a few years of economic downturn, GDP fell from 9% to 4% in the same period last year. In the 74 years, GDP began to run smoothly compared with the same period last year, but the level of corporate profits rose steadily, and ROE increased from 15% to 20% last year.

Obvious changes have taken place in the industrial structure, and the profit margins of precision machinery manufacturing, such as electronic machinery, electrical machinery and so on, have increased significantly.

China is stepping into the second stage, the industrial structure has undergone subtle changes, and the proportion of the third industry has risen from 44% to 54%.

The concentration of cyclical industries is changing, especially in industries with high proportion of private enterprises, such as chemical industry, paper making and construction machinery.

China's Thai Chemical Industry in the PVC industry, Hua Lu Heng Sheng in the urea industry, and Sany in the machinery industry have performed well in the past year compared with their industries. Although the industry demand can not go back to the previous height, the position of the company in the industry has risen.

Micro view

In the continuous upgrading, Moutai and other high-end brands such as high-end liquor, Geely and the Great Wall auto brands sell continuously and share prices continue to rise.

Overall, the net profit growth of A shares has been flat in the middle of 12, and the net profit growth of the consumer industry has increased from 1% at the end of 12 to 20%. The technology industry has returned to nearly 30% from the negative level at the end of 12.

At the same time, the proportion of profit in science and technology and consumer industries is rising. Only 5 years ago, 7-8% had exceeded 15% and contributed more to market profits.

The net profit of the A share market is expected to be 3% in 2016 compared with 8% in 2017.

The shock market is also divided into benign and malignant. The former is like spring, and the temperature continues to pick up, symbolizing the preparation of the summer bull market. The latter is like autumn, and the temperature keeps falling down, and finally it becomes a bear market similar to winter.

09 years in August -11 April, the Shanghai composite index high point 3478 point shock dropped to 3067 point is the vicious shock, finally ushered in the bear market.

The concussion since the end of January 16 is the positive shock of the central uplift, the two retreat and the one type. It is spring, the first half of the 16 year, the Shanghai Composite Index 2638-3100-2800, the second half of the year 2800-3300-3000.

The improvement of fundamentals is the core reason for the continuous uplift of the central cities.

Now that we are moving forward in two, we will have a retreat, and there will be a cold spring in the spring. In the second half of the two quarter, we will be concerned about the policy side and the capital side.

First, domestic factors are concerned about the deleveraging policy.

The two is foreign factors to track Sino US economic and trade relations.

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