The Stock Market Shows A Slow Bull Market, And Gold And The Dollar Change.

The core variables of Macroeconomic in the first quarter are "infrastructure + real estate + supply side clearing + monetary policy turning point".

In this environment, in general, the general categories of asset performance are: commodities > stock > Gold > Real Estate > bonds, which is basically in line with our judgement.

Commodities have continued to expand since the four quarter.

From the fourth quarter of the adjustment began to continue the downturn, gold and the dollar change, gold from weakening to strong, the dollar from strong to weak.

Macro logic determines the core logic of asset performance in three categories: (1) whether the economy is over expected -- Based on the logic of the demand side; (2) whether inflation is beyond expectations - based on the logic of the supply side; (3) whether interest rates exceed expectations - based on the logic of monetary policy.

That is to say, the macro economy can be divided into 3 x 3 x 3=27 cases.

Different situations have different effects on asset performance.

With the growth rate of M2 and social harmony meeting expectations, the scale of foreign exchange reserves is stable at 3 trillion, and domestic incremental capital is basically stable.

Structurally, commodities,

It shows strong capital inflow, and the debt market is short of incremental capital.

The flow of funds is consistent with the price of large class assets.

The core variables of the two quarter are overseas, first of all, the interest rate increase.

The two quarter's important macroeconomic variables must first be concerned about changes in the interest rate side, and foreign concerns about the Fed's interest rate increase and domestic concerns.

Secondly, we should pay attention to inflation (PPI). We should also pay attention to Trump's policy, the French general election and the uncertainty of the international political situation.

In general, stocks may still appear as slow cattle, more as structural market, industry rotation and sector rotation accelerating.

The overall risk of bonds increases, and yields may rise further.

Commodity gains will narrow sharply in the two quarter.

The real estate may be flat. It is suggested that the implementation of the notice on strengthening the management and regulation of housing and land supply in the near future jointly issued by the Ministry of housing and the Ministry of land and the Ministry of land.

Affected by the international political situation, gold should be given enough attention again.

Judging from the disk, since the construction of cement represented by the middle reaches of this year, the consumption of liquor and household appliances represented a rise in consumption, coupled with the upstream resources that have gone up last year, it seems that many industries have gone through the market. Is the market not going to go up well? I think such a rise is a surface phenomenon. The essence is that A shares have entered the era of two-dimensional investment.

In the past, when making industry configuration and style choice, it is often divided into cycle and consumption, growth and value from one dimension, attack cycle, growth, defense, consumption and value. Now the market environment has changed subtly, and consumption and cycle have opportunities.

Consumption is led by consumption upgrades of brand consumption, the cycle is a big increase in the leading or policy themes, growth stocks in the valuation of a little larger market value of the rise, value stocks only performance growth has been shown.

The so-called theme cycle + consumption upgrade + value growth, all sectors are the first half of the stock market rose.

The change of this structure stems from two aspects: first, structural changes in the economic structure, in the adjustment, in the cycle and in consumption, this is a good thing.

Second, the structure of investors in A shares is changing, and the proportion of funds such as insurance, banking and social security that pursue absolute income is rising, and value investment and trend investment are more balanced.

This characteristic will continue, and some industries are lagging behind, valuations are low, and they will be longer. We should pay attention to financial stocks in the second half.

Financial stocks are a large and low allocation of public funds. Public funds have already balanced the cycle, consumption and technology allocation. Low allocation finance, especially banks, is essentially not confident of macroeconomic stabilization.

In the second half of the year, as long as the economic growth is stable, A share investors may restore expectations for financial stocks. Besides, the dynamics of big banks are only 5-6 times that of PE, and PB is only 0.8 times.

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