Private Equity Gangs Are Still Generally Optimistic About The Hong Kong Stock Market This Year.

Judging from the recent performance of various funds, stock fund performance is more prominent, which is also related to the stock market this year.

Looking back at the first quarter, whether the market is divided about whether the domestic economy will really stabilise in the future, the domestic economic data in 1 and February have exceeded expectations, the growth rate of industrial added value has accelerated, the economic recovery has continued, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has picked up.

As of March 28th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.44%, which has been out of December last year's haze.

However, in the case of the equity fund's brilliant performance, the CTA fund did not enjoy the market's rising.

Nanhua commodity index and Nanhua precious metals index rose 6.58% and 4.27% respectively in 1 and February this year, while the CTA fund fell 0.55% during the same period.

This is due to the suspension of the commodity spot market paction in the middle and late 1 months. The supporting role of fundamentals and supply and demand factors to the commodity market is weakened, and the capital driving effect has been enhanced. Especially in the last week before the Spring Festival, the commodity futures market has risen collectively, and the rebar has increased by 7% a week, even if the futures price exceeds the spot price.

This abnormal rise is no lack of irrational speculation of funds.

In such a market situation, if we continue the trend tracking in December last year, we will be beaten.

In January this year, some of the better performing mid long term trend following CTA

There are varying degrees of retracement.

Most of the best performing investors this year are investors in Hong Kong stocks, such as Gao Yi's new equation Xiaofeng 2, which has risen more than 15% this year.

In our research and communication with many fund companies, we find that private equity chiefs are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market this year.

In the pformation stage after the economic slowdown, the survival of the fittest in all industries will be beneficial.

Fundamentals continue to improve.

Not only traditional industries, but also cyclical industries will be differentiated by the supply side reform, and the profits of emerging industries will also be differentiated.

The weights of the Hong Kong stock index are mostly the leading industries in the mainland.

The new stage will benefit from the increase in market share (operating rate), and profitability is expected to continue to improve.

According to the historical experience of developed economies, China's wealth has stood at the starting point of the big trend of overseas allocation, and Hong Kong stocks have become the first stop for Chinese capital to go to sea.

With the gradual opening of the cross straits capital corridor, we can see some changes. Since the end of last year, the momentum of the mainland's capital going south has been increasing rapidly, and the share of the paction volume has also been higher.

From the perspective of specific capital flows, the capital in the south is more likely to prefer high dividend, undervalued and high priced A shares.

At present, Hong Kong stocks pass 422 targets, and they all have a shareholding in the south, holding an average of 3.57% shares.

In the medium term outlook, the bull market of Hong Kong stocks is still in its early stage, maintaining the view of slow and smooth market and upward shock, but it will still encounter many uncertainties.

Hong Kong stocks are still dominated by foreign capital, while mainland capital is the absolute leader of incremental capital.

Therefore, the risk of retracement of Hong Kong stock often comes from the selling of foreign investors.

At present, paying attention to performance driven investment opportunities, "sweeping" funds are preferred to blue chip and value stocks.

The stock of foreign capital usually favors Hong Kong stock blue chips, and the current incremental capital is also favored by the blue chip stocks and value stocks of the state-owned enterprises in the valuation stage of the Hong Kong stock market. Its advantage lies in its low valuation and high dividends.

Data from the Hong Kong stock exchange channel show that the industry with strong profitability and undervalued value is the first choice for Chinese capital in the sea allocation, and is expected to take the lead in the fight for the pricing power of Hong Kong stocks.

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