The Best Time To Configure The "Big Financial Sector"

Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.44%, while the gem index fell 2.94%, but the financial sector showed a better performance, especially when the bank went against the trend by 0.98%.

The performance of the market has fully verified what we did in the weekly newspaper.

Logic.

Looking back in March, although the index was flat, the industry's rotation and theme dancing made the market look better in March.

Recently, the Yangtze strategy group and investors have discussed more about the direction of the industry allocation.

Through exchanges, we find that in the background of "exponentially static" and "industry like rabbits", investors often worry that whether the management products will deviate from the overall market orientation in the fast track industry.

As we observed that the volatility of industry performance in March is bigger, especially in the early stage of strong industry, there will often be "ups and down" in the daily market.

Therefore, the Yangtze River Strategy Group believes that the market allocation can be qualitatively judged through the fluctuation analysis of the fund's net value.

We can see from the change of net value that the concentration of institutional industry is higher.

Based on the qualitative analysis of the industry configuration framework, "boom + valuation + configuration + style" and superposition of the concentration degree of institutional configuration, we believe that at this point in time, considering the "risk return ratio" of the industry allocation, we need to consider the next sector that has better "boom + valuation" or will be the best choice.

We believe that this time point is the best time to configure the "big financial sector".

Industry allocation, April is still dominated by defensive, the first choice is relatively low valuation of the large financial sector, followed by selected sectors of the high performance, while valuing relatively attractive industries.

Recommended attention (Finance and Banking), banking, non banking, (consumption valuations are relatively low) medicine, and low valuation industries (cycle valuations) electrical equipment, power, and attention (growth from PEG perspective) electronics and other industries.

Theme: focus on Xiong an new area, new energy vehicle and military industry theme, Xiong an new area is undoubtedly the hot topic of this week, and has medium and long-term logic, is not a one-day travel theme; new energy vehicle policy level to continue to exceed expectations; military industry will welcome intensive accelerator, in the short term, China's first domestic aircraft carrier may be launched in April 23rd naval Festival, and the army 90th anniversary, handling the United States and South Korea Saad events are important catalysts.

From the market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.44%, the gem index fell 2.94%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.96%, but the financial sector performed better, the bank's contrarian increased 0.98%, and the non bank fell 1.28%, which is still relatively positive compared with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The performance of the market fully validates the logic that we have deduced from last week's weekly report that the financial sector has a strong investment cost performance ratio.

Looking back in March, although the index was flat, the industry's rotation and theme dancing made the market look better in March.

Recently, the Yangtze strategy group and investors have discussed more about the direction of the industry allocation.

Through exchanges, we find that in the background of "exponentially static" and "industry like rabbits", investors often worry that whether the management products will deviate from the overall market orientation in the fast track industry.

As we observed that the volatility of industry performance in March is bigger, especially in the early stage of strong industry, there will often be "ups and down" in the daily market.

Therefore, the Yangtze River Strategy Group believes that the market allocation can be qualitatively judged through the fluctuation analysis of the fund's net value.

We can see from the change of net value that the concentration of institutional industry is higher.

Based on the qualitative analysis of the industry configuration framework, "boom + valuation + configuration + style" and superposition of the concentration degree of institutional configuration, we believe that at this point in time, considering the "risk return ratio" of the industry allocation, we need to consider the next sector that has better "boom + valuation" or will be the best choice.

We believe that this time point is the best time to configure the "big financial sector".

From the market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.44%, the gem index fell 2.94%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.96%, but the financial sector performed better, the bank's contrarian increased 0.98%, and the non bank fell 1.28%, which is still relatively positive compared with the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The performance of the market has fully verified the logic we deduced from last week's weekly report: the industry is now moving rapidly, the market game is large, and the financial sector has a strong investment cost performance ratio.

Further analysis is made on the stage performance of the fund.

We use the data of "common stock fund" and "partial equity hybrid fund" to analyze the data. Each point in the chart represents a fund in the market.

We choose the net value changes of funds in March 21st and March 27th for two days respectively as abscissa and ordinate, as shown in the following figure.

At the same time, we will depict the rise and fall of the CITIC first level industries in the two trading days. The horizontal axis indicates that the trades in March 21st are going up and down. The vertical axis indicates that the trades in March 27th are going up and down, as shown below.

When we combine the ups and downs of the industry, we seem to be able to see interesting phenomena: Although the number of fund products contained in the four quadrants of the "fund product net quadrant" is the same, but the vast majority of CITIC first level industry "two day" coordinates are in the second quadrant. Assuming that if the allocation of the industry is relatively balanced, there should be no four quadrant industrial coordinates in the "fund product net quadrant" so concentrated in the second quadrant.

In order to see more carefully the problem of high concentration of configuration, we choose two time windows. As shown in the figure below, the horizontal axis indicates that the net value of funds in March 27th ~3 31 is up and down, and the vertical axis indicates that the net value of funds in March 1st to March 26th has risen and fallen.

At the same time, we will depict the rise and fall of the first tier industries in the two stage, as shown below.

From this set of data, we also see the "fund product net quadrant", the uneven distribution of industry.

From the above two groups of verification process, we should be able to qualitatively get important conclusions, that is, agencies in some industries.

The degree of concentration is high.

In the context of high concentration of configuration, which sector still has cost allocation? In last week's weekly report, we traced the correlation coefficient between shwan industry and the market in the past 15 years. From the past data, we can see that the correlation coefficient of some industries in each stage is basically at 0.85.

But at present, there are some different changes: we can see that the correlation coefficient of almost all plates and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has dropped sharply to about 0.75.

Fully explain that the industry accelerates differentiation, and most industries speed up.

Based on our industry configuration framework, "boom + valuation + configuration + style", we overlook the above qualitative analysis of the improvement of the concentration of institutional configuration. We have greater assurance that the stock fund will consider configuring the next sector with better "boom + valuation" when considering the allocation of "risk to earnings ratio".

We believe that this time point is the best time to configure the "big financial sector". Our reasons are as follows:

1, from a strategic point of view, the valuation of blue chip stocks has undergone a round of repair since the beginning of the year, and more active factors still need to be continued in the future market; secondly, the recent real estate control policies and financial regulatory policies have been introduced, and liquidity expectations are also tightening at the margin. The market environment is tight, and the market needs to guard against risks. We are cautious about market judgement.

2, through the communication with industry researchers, the big financial sector has the advantage of "boom + valuation" in the current time: Banks: from the annual report data, the annual net profit growth is basically consistent with the expectation. If the abnormal value of Bank of China is eliminated, the 2016Q4 single quarter net profit will grow at a rate of 1.9%, which is equal to the growth rate of 2016Q3. The net interest margin will decrease year by year, individual banks will stabilize in a single quarter, asset quality will be further consolidated, stocks will be differentiated, investment assets will expand rapidly, and active liabilities will be strengthened.

At the same time.

As market liquidity worries about MPA assessment fade away, this factor of suppressing valuations will be eliminated.

Insurance: as the interest rate moves upward, the insurance industry profits far outweigh the disadvantages. At present, the valuation of the insurance sector is high; secondly, insurance is the most important financial consumption in the next 2-3 years, and the premium growth will continue. The increase in the demand for insurance products indicates that the consumption attributes of the industry are improving. The insurance products are the only financial products with consumption attributes. Finally, the side benefits from industry regulation and financial regulation, MPA assessment and a new regulation of three line management and management. There is no slip in premium, and there is no time mismatch and channel problem in the use of insurance funds.

In the 2017-2018 years, the securities industry will have a big change, which is reflected in the income structure. The proportion of investment bank + information management revenue will definitely exceed that of brokerage business, while investment bank and information management profit model, ecology, ROE and valuation methods are obviously different from brokers. So, in the past 1-2 years, brokers should have a new round of valuation remodeling, and there will also be a new market structure.

At present, the PB valuation of the brokerage industry is about 2 times.

It mainly recommends that IPO stockholders are rich, direct investment and perfect customer resources.

On the whole, we think that the industry configuration in April should be mainly defensive, and the first choice is the relatively large financial sector with relatively low valuations. Secondly, the industries with high certainty and high valuation will be selected.

Recommended attention should be paid to banking, non banking, medicine, electrical equipment, power and other industries.

From the defensive point of view, we believe that the big financial sector is more cost-effective, and it is recommended to focus on Banking and non banking finance.

For consumer goods, we believe that the valuation of the leading sectors, such as home appliances and liquor, has reached the peak. Further expansion of future valuations also requires continuous improvement in performance expectations.

It is recommended to pay attention to other consumer goods, such as pharmaceuticals, which are relatively low valuation.

For the cyclical plate, we are not optimistic.

From past experience, in the history of economic falsification cycle, after the end of the spring restlessness, cyclical stocks usually have a significant adjustment.

But in the cyclical industry, we think we can focus on some stable industries with low valuation, such as electrical equipment and power industry.

For growth stocks, we do not believe that there is a market condition for overall growth.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.