The Trend Of Tightening Global Monetary Policy Has Begun To Spread.

At the Boao forum for Asia Forum in late March, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, pointed out that "after the implementation of years of quantitative easing monetary policy, the current policy cycle is drawing to a close."

After eight or nine years of easy money, the trend of tightening global monetary policy has begun to spread.

Not only is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates several times, but also the turning point of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the people's Bank of China.

Tokyo MITSUBISHI daily bank recently issued expectations that the role of the Fed tightening monetary policy has been little. Unless the Fed management changes ahead of schedule, Yellen has no reason to accelerate the pace of raising interest rates.

Economist Paul Sheard said that after the Fed raised interest rates, the exchange rate of countries was different from that of the US dollar, while most countries adopted floating foreign exchange rates. Therefore, central banks should indeed adapt to monetary policy according to the economic situation.

So will all countries in the world follow interest rate increases? Can all currencies be pressurized?

Zong Liang, principal research fellow of the Bank of China, said in a media statement: "as far as China's economic development is concerned, monetary policy is neither too loose nor tight.

Specifically, we should keep the total amount moderate and stable on the scale of money supply, and constantly optimize the structure of capital investment and attach importance to serving the real economy.

According to the latest survey, after the central bank raised the MLF interest rate in January and raised the reverse repo rate in February, 54% netizens believed that China had entered the cycle of raising interest rates.

Ren Zeping, chief economist of Fangzheng securities, said that China could adopt the structural interest rate increase of economic L type lower cycle recovery.

Raising interest rates in an all-round way is neither necessary nor a solid foundation.

The RMB exchange rate will not depreciate in 2017 as much as in the past two years.

The early stage distortion has basically been released, coupled with the improvement of the fundamentals of the domestic economy. Stable exchange rate is the need for China and the us to maintain diplomatic relations.

European Central Bank's attitude: short-term interest rate increases without interest rate increases

The ECB said it would not tighten monetary policy in the short term. Members of the Executive Committee said in an interview that the ECB should be prepared to change its monetary policy because the inflation data had begun to approach the target: "we should be prepared for changing policies; once the data are stable, it shows that we have embarked on a path towards price stabilization. Then we will be well prepared to increase interest rates."

Inflation is a crucial indicator for the ECB to develop its monetary policy, which has improved in the past few months, but still below the target level of the bank.

The European Central Bank will hold its next monetary policy conference in June, when inflation figures are expected to improve.

Flig, member of the MPC of the Bank of England, said that rising inflation does not mean raising interest rates. The current level of wages and consumer spending will eventually slow down. The central bank's interest rate hike will not cool the economy, and the risk will continue in the next few years, and monetary policy should not stop.

In August 2016, the Bank of England lowered interest rates to a record low, in order to prevent the economy from dragging down by the British referendum, but last year's Sterling plunge by 20% has driven inflation back to the 2% target of the central bank.

Now is the time to recalibrate monetary policy's support for the British economy.

The attitude of the Bank of Australia: keeping loose and not increasing interest rate + guard against overheating of real estate

Economists believe that, in view of the slowdown in China's economy and the downside risks brought by the new deal of President Trump or the Australian economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia may not keep pace with the Fed's interest rate increase. It will also wait until 2019 to adjust its monetary policy as early as possible.

However, Australia Reserve Bank has been worried about the local property market overheating and home buyers' credit risk. If banks fail to tighten their housing loan standards in a timely manner, Australia reserve bank or new measures will be introduced.

Therefore, we can not completely exclude the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in certain circumstances in the future.

The attitude of the Central Bank of Japan: negative interest rates continue to be withdrawn cautiously and loosely

On the 2017 day, the central bank will carry out a negative interest rate policy of 1st anniversary. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will eventually withdraw its very loose monetary policy, which is likely to be in the first place this year.

But recently, the Japanese yen has been boosted by a number of positive gains.

It is expected to rise to 2% in the future, and the salary increase in 2018 is expected to be lower than this year.

Japan's inflation rate has continued to rise, but the rate of increase has been slightly slower.

Therefore, the Central Bank of Japan is more cautious about the prospect of inflation. There is still a certain gap between the target of inflation and 2%, so monetary easing is appropriate.

South Korean Central Bank's attitude: slow rising interest rate to maintain loose

As of March 24th, the stock market and bond market showed a net inflow, the ROK said: the Fed's interest rate hike may hurt South Korea's economy, but if it slows up interest rates, its impact will be limited, so monetary policy will remain loose because of slow economic growth and moderate inflation pressure.

The Central Bank of India has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and shifted its monetary policy stance from "loose" to "neutral". This is the first time that the bank has changed its monetary policy stance since June 2015.

The shift in monetary policy stance is mainly due to many signs that the "waste note order" has had a greater impact on the economy of India.

India's central bank expects India's inflation range in the first half of this year to be 4%-4.5% and the inflation interval in the second half of this year to be 4.5%-5%.

Analysts say India's central bank's policy stance has become a signal of ending the easing cycle, and the trend of capital outflow may further intensify.

The Bank of Canada has considered raising inflation targets to reduce interest rates in the future, but unconventional monetary policy is also an important way relative to interest rate policy.

Russia's central bank announced that in March 24th, the key interest rate was reduced to 9.75%, inflation expectations continued to decline, and the CPI rate fell to 4.6% in February.

Analysts say that interest rates will be further lowered in the future.

Brazil central bank: in February, second consecutive interest rates cut by 75 basis points, the monetary policy statement looked at the possibility of easing monetary policy, but did not imply that it would accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

Singapore Central Bank: the recent strong trend of the new yuan exchange rate seems to reflect the possibility of tightening monetary policy in April.

Philippines central bank: foreign exchange market is still affected by the policy of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

"The monetary policy of all countries in the world is very necessary in the past few years, and it is very meaningful for the slump economy, like" the coffee on the second morning after hangover ".

But after a few years of loose monetary policy, what we need to consider now is how to withdraw from this loose monetary policy. We need to guard against excessive inflation when the loose monetary policy is withdrawn.

Li Daokui, Dean of the Su Shimin College of Tsinghua University, said at the Boao forum for Asia.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, said in an interview: "at present, the trend of gradual withdrawal of global quantitative easing monetary policy is gradually clear, but the pace of countries is different.

However, the prevention and control of financial risks is a necessary consideration for monetary policy. We should establish a "two pillar policy" of monetary policy and macro Prudential policy.

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