Monetary Policy Is Not A Universal Drug Market.

The central interest rate is hard to fall.

In the last week of the last quarter, the central bank's open market zero delivery showed that the central bank maintained a tight policy.

In March, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on schedule, the US economy also tightened monetary policy. The Fed was also considering the possibility of shrinking. Therefore, the domestic monetary policy will follow the global monetary cycle and it will be difficult to relax.

The main objective of China's current policy is to leverage financial leverage and guard against asset price bubbles, and maintain a 7 day repurchase rate center at 3%.

Easing may be coming to an end.

3 at the end of the month, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said that after the implementation of many years of quantitative easing monetary policy, the current round of easing policy cycles may be drawing to a close.

After 15-16 years of substantial monetary easing, mortgage loans are driving domestic prices up.

Last year, bond yields were low and the interest rates were down to a low level, making it easy to form asset price bubbles, indicating that monetary policy is not a panacea.

Market expectations are tight.

The results of Haitong 2 quarter bond survey show that most of the respondents expect future interbank deposit certificates to be included in the interbank liabilities in batches and MPA will be strictly assessed.

Specifically, 84.3% of respondents chose interbank certificates to be included in the interbank liabilities in batches. 75.9% of respondents chose MPA to be strictly assessed, and the consistency of financial regulation was higher.

Overseas: the Fed has cut the tables.

Last week, Dudley, the Fed's "three figure", said that if the economy meets expectations, it will not be surprising this year.

The Fed's open plan is to allow debt to expire naturally and no longer to be reinvested, which means that the demand for long-term treasury bonds in the United States has declined, or the interest rate of long-term treasury bonds has risen, and its tightening effect is even stronger than that of raising interest rates.

At present, the market expects us interest rate hike in June to be as high as 62.6%.

Last week, US President Trump tried to reopen fair trade and increase manufacturing jobs. He signed two executive orders on Friday to study the reasons for the US trade deficit.

Domestic economy: the official PMI rebounded.

In March, the PMI of the manufacturing industry continued to rise to 51.8%, 8 consecutive months higher than the ups and downs, and a record high in 13 years, pointing to the continued improvement of the manufacturing boom.

Among them, the new orders rose to 53.3%, and the new export orders rose to 51%.

Production rose to 54.2%, a record high in 14 years since August, confirming that the growth rate of electricity consumption in March rose to 18.6%, indicating that industrial production is still booming.

But in March, the PMI of the new manufacturing industry dropped to a level of 16 in October, and the growth rate of real estate sales dropped significantly since March. The growth rate of auto sales continued to be sluggish, which means that the replenishment cycle will enter the second half, and the improvement of manufacturing industry will continue to be doubtful.

Domestic prices: PPI growth fell.

Last week, vegetable prices continued to fall and food prices declined.

Forecast CPI food prices in March than -2%, down March CPI forecast to 1%.

Last week, oil prices dropped sharply, coal prices and steel prices fell, and production data prices fell significantly.

In March, PMI purchase and factory prices all hit a new low of six months.

Forecast for March PPI ring rose 0.3%, PPI year-on-year increase to 7.6%.

After a substantial increase in prices, the supply of industrial goods improved significantly, while the real estate bubble forced regulation and overweight, and financial leverage.

The rise has restrained demand expansion, so the supply and demand relationship of industrial goods has been reversed this year, and the price of industrial products has obviously weakened. The weakening of food demand has weakened the price of food, which means that the current inflation trend has been reversed.

Liquidity: easing is coming to an end.

Last week, the R007 average dropped to 3.68%, and the R001 average dropped to 2.53%.

Last week, the central bank suspended reverse buy back, the reverse repurchase expired 290 billion, net return 290 billion.

Last week, the US dollar rebounded sharply, and the offshore and offshore RMB exchange rate stabilized at around 6.9.

Last week, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said at the Boao forum that the current cycle of easing policy is coming to an end.

After the financial crisis, in order to revive the economy from the crisis, the world has adopted a loose monetary policy, at the same time also caused high inflation, or led to asset bubbles in financial markets, real estate markets and other fields, and showed that monetary policy is not a panacea.

From a rational point of view, the policy mix should be adjusted to other policies such as fiscal policy and structural reform at this stage.

Although monetary authorities have begun to tighten liquidity, it will also be a gradual process.

Guard against regulatory risks.

In the first week of the week, the market passed smoothly through the end of the quarter, and the capital interest rate dropped sharply in the early April. Some points for attention in the coming period will come from: the bank will submit MPA assessment materials in April 10th or so, and whether the central bank will impose severe penalties on some banks that fail to meet the standards, thus bringing about tight financial resources. When will the new regulation of the information management and the industry supervision policy be introduced, will the liability side specification lead to the adjustment of the assets side risk?

The new regulation and interindustry regulation will not be released until the results of the MPA assessment come out, which means that the first half of April is at a risk vacuum. At this time, if the underlying data is weak, the risk of game trading opportunities is low, but for the institutions whose cost is unstable, the central bank still needs to be on the alert.

Still tight capital flows.

Short term reduction of 10 years of treasury bond interest rate range to 3.0-3.4%.

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