China Should Continue To Implement A Proactive Fiscal Policy And A Prudent Monetary Policy.

This year, the PMI in the 3 months is 51.3%, 51.6% and 51.8% respectively. The growing data show the trend of China's economic operation in 2017.

Part of it can be attributed to the foreshadowing of 2016 and beyond.

Judging from the development of our country in recent years, our government has no longer pursued the speed of economic development, but rather dominated by stability in the great environment. This also laid a solid foundation for China's economy to run within a reasonable range in 2017.

In the process of China's economic growth pressure, the quality of the economy is developing rapidly, for example, our government's strict policy on real estate has further suppressed the rapid growth of asset bubbles, and a lot of capital has begun to flow to various entities, so that a part of the funds will be pferred from the investment plane to effectively promote the development of the real industry.

If viewed from the long cycle of the whole economic development, China's economy as a whole will be better, from the perspective of short cycle with annual units, there will still be a lot of uncertainties in China's economy in 2017.

On the one hand, the current economic fluctuation cycle is much shorter than before. In short, it was shortened from "thirty years of Hedong" to "three years of Hedong".

On the other hand, there are too many uncertainties in economic development at this stage, and unexpected situations are likely to occur at any time.

From the whole world

In view of the instability of the European Union, the turmoil in the Middle East, the possible changes in crude oil prices and commodities, and the uncertainty of the US economy under Trump's administration, the development of the global economy has taken a lead.

As far as the domestic situation is concerned, the capacity of steel and coal is still serious surplus, and the real estate of the three or four tier cities is still depressed. A large number of start-ups have entered the "death period" which is difficult to manage, and there may be excess labor force in the society. These are negative factors that affect the economy.

These negative factors, some of which are left over from history, have been demolished in the early days in order to make up for the west wall. Some are designed to curb the policies of some asset bubbles. Others are bottlenecks arising from the development of certain industries and industries to a certain stage. They will be objective, artificial and natural. This means that China's economic development may encounter pressure at any time.

However, under the background of our country's stability based development, our government has made adequate plans for all kinds of risks that may affect the economy.

Therefore, even if the economic development in the late 2017 is under pressure again, the impact will be very limited. China's economy will still advance steadily according to the original and planned steps.

Under such circumstances, China is adjusting the economy through fiscal policies and monetary policies that are in line with the national conditions. From the current situation, tightening monetary policy is inevitable, and positive fiscal policy will play an important role.

Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, mentioned in this year's report on the work of the two sessions that we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy this year.

From this work report, the monetary policy to be adopted in 2017 is proceeding from two aspects.

First, the deficit rate will be set at 3% this year, with a deficit of 2 trillion and 380 billion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan over last year.

Among them, the central budget deficit is 1 trillion and 550 billion yuan and the local fiscal deficit is 830 billion yuan.

Local special bonds will be allocated 800 billion yuan, and local government replacement bonds will continue to be issued.

The deficit rate remains unchanged this year, mainly in order to further reduce taxes and reduce fees. The tax burden of enterprises will be reduced by around 350 billion yuan a year and about 200 billion yuan in fees related to enterprises.

The two is,

Arrangements should focus on key points, maintain pressure, intensify efforts to make up for deficiencies and improve people's livelihood.

The scale of local general pfer payments increased by 9.5%, with emphasis on balanced pfer payments and financial assistance in difficult areas.

Reduce non key expenditures and reduce budgetary arrangements for projects with low performance.

Governments at all levels must stick to tight dates, and the central departments should take the lead in reducing the general expenditure according to the range of not less than 5%, and never increase the "three public" funds, and squeeze more funds to reduce taxes and reduce fees.

To put it simply, our country adopts active fiscal policy at the present stage, through fiscal investment and financing to carry out national infrastructure and infrastructure construction, readjust the economic structure, guide, promote and support industrial upgrading, form new economic growth points, promote investment, increase employment and expand domestic demand, so as to realize stable development of China's economy.

In terms of supply side structural reform, our government mainly brings reform dividends from six aspects.

First, we should adjust and improve the population policy, adapt to the changing trend of the total population and the structure of our country, and solve the problems of population quantity, quality, structure and distribution, and promote the long-term and balanced development of population. Two, we should promote the reform of land system, safeguard the land rights and interests of Guo Lao people, and promote social harmony and stability; three, speed up the reform of the financial system, improve the efficiency of financial services, and lower the efficiency of the real economy.

We should actively foster an open, pparent and healthy capital market.

The four is to implement the innovation driven strategy, accelerate the pformation of the mode of economic development, push forward the structural reform of supply side, implement the innovation driven development strategy unswervingly, improve the quality and efficiency of development, accelerate the cultivation of new growth momentum; five, deepen the reform of decentralization and decentralization, and really let go of the power, so as to put more energy into the matter of supervision and optimization of services after the event; six, build a social service system, and build related supporting services for the development of the whole society.

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