A Shares Fell Collectively, The Market Will Remain Vibrant In The Future

On Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities opened slightly down the road, and the downward trend continued to widen. At the close, the Shanghai stock index fell by nearly 1%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.26%, the gem fell 1.15%, and the volume continued to languish. From the disk side, the concept of Inner Mongolia plate and gold became the only rising theme in the two cities.

It is worth noting that in recent days, geopolitics continued to be tense. On Friday morning, the US Army dropped the largest non nuclear bomb attack on Afghanistan's ISIS target in Afghanistan. On Saturday, the DPRK will celebrate the birth of Kim Il-Sung, the 105th anniversary leader of the founding of the people's Republic of China. It is likely that sixth nuclear tests will take place, and the gold plate will be the only remaining hot spot in the two cities.

On Thursday, after 13 trading days, the central bank finally reopened the open market.

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On the same day, the central bank offered 110 billion yuan reverse repurchase funds to the market by means of interest rate bidding, while issuing PSL (mortgage supplementary loan) 83 billion 900 million yuan.

Although the central bank has been absent from the open market for nearly half a month, the market liquidity has remained relaxed since the end of the cross season, especially the short-term interest rate has continued to decline in recent years.

But even so, the whole market is worried about the central bank's continued contraction of liquidity. With the increase of late capital maturity, we believe that the central bank may accelerate the pace of capital recovery.

And recently, regulators have been deleveraging and strict control.

The documents on risk and standardization of interbank business have been promulgated, which shows that the attitude towards controlling the continued expansion of the industry chain is still firm.

The biggest hot spot on Friday is the sudden emergence of the Inner Mongolia plate, leading the index to fight back.

During the two sessions this year, Premier Li Keqiang said in the government work report, "organize the celebration of the establishment of the 70th anniversary the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region."

It is worth noting that this is the first time that the Inner Mongolia region has been named in the government work report in recent years, and the significance is self-evident.

By reviewing some historical data, we find that the Xinjiang plate and Tibet plate, which are the contrast objects in Inner Mongolia area, respectively, after 60 weeks and 50 weeks, the yield of the entire plate is far more than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the same period. In September 1, 2015, Tibet set up 50th anniversary anniversary, and the Tibet plate index 3 months later, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 20.71%, leading to 33.39% by March 31, 2017.

In October 1, 2015, the 60th anniversary anniversary of the founding of the Xinjiang was established. The Xinjiang plate index led the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index for 5.47% in 3 months and ended 30.27% in April 14, 2017.

The main reasons for this are: 1. during the period of Daqing, the political attention of the autonomous region was high; 2. celebrations were often accompanied by

3., as a hot spot, it is easy to get the attention of capital; 4., in order to welcome the celebration, enterprises fully mobilize their enthusiasm.

In the current situation that the whole market is gradually recovering and hot concentrated, we believe that the Inner Mongolia index will win the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the 70 year period of Daqing, which is a big probability event.

At present, the specific time of the 70th anniversary celebration in Inner Mongolia has not yet been announced. According to historical experience, around August, appropriate layout can be made at this time.

To sum up, there are two main reasons for the decline of the market: first, because the concept of "male security" in the early stage of leading the market has led to a sharp adjustment in the market, the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau have also made large adjustments, and the market has plunged more enthusiastically. The two reason is that the geopolitics of the periphery has become more intense, especially the DPRK or nuclear tests.

In view of the weakness of the market in recent days, the situation of low volatility and low paction has appeared continuously, the mood of the whole market has been reduced, and the atmosphere of incremental funds is heavier, and the back market rate will continue to concussion.

On the operation, we suggest that we should focus on defensive, light market and heavy stocks, grasp the structural opportunities under the premise of controlling the overall position, and pay attention to the theme and quality growth stocks such as Xiong an new area, state owned enterprises reform and the belt road.

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