On The Truth Behind The "Resumption Limit" Of The "Noble Bird" Brand

About right

The truth behind the brand "resumption limit"

This week, the Chinese sports industry, Rhine sports, and the three sports concept stocks have resumed their trading cards, but they have experienced a sharp drop in varying degrees.

In contrast, the movements of the two companies in China and Rhine do not necessarily have a certain predictability in the market.

For example, in the case of China Sports Corporation, the price of the company itself is too expensive, its core assets are running poorly, the cooperation with the buyers is very difficult, and the state-owned complex background directly under the administration of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of finance makes the outside world not optimistic when the company throws the information about the pfer of major shareholders' equity.

Under this background, the four acquirers that have been exposed are a bit like speculation. The form is bigger than the content.

For Rhine sports, this is a sad and demanding farce.

They bought overseas clubs at the policy and market high points, but when the company announced the suspension, the market quickly entered the callback cycle.

The funds went to sea to be strictly monitored. Investors in the two tier market were skeptical about the club's purchase and sale.

Resumption on Monday.

Limit for two consecutive days.

Market expectations are already in, and falling is sensible.

But at the end of last year, it announced the acquisition of Welsh, the largest chain fitness brand in the industry, but both in the sports industry and in the two tier market caused heated discussions.

The excitement of the market is that, at last, one of the sports listed companies has begun to make a big acquisition of the assets that are actually profitable. But the industry is excited that the mystery of the fitness industry that has not been carried out for many years and has never been announced by the financial industry will be unveiled, and whether spring in the fitness field will come.

But in the past four months, the market has been so cold and unpopular.

"Should the trading negotiations be over?"

In fact, it is not the end of the world, or even expectation.

The logic and changes behind this concern are worthy of attention.

1, the environment changed, A shares continued to fall in the first quarter.

Many people do not understand that such a heavy industry mergers and acquisitions, may be the birth of A shares of the first concept of fitness concept, the final resumption of the market will be so cold.

But the M & a paction of A shares is not just a single logic between the company and the target. The whole market environment and policies may also play a decisive role.

In December 9th, over the past four months, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell to 3100 points from 3300 points. During the same period, Shenzhen's index dropped from 13100 to 10300 today, and the whole market is in a period of A.

The direction of policy is even more obvious.

After the middle of last year, the regulation of the whole A share market is to release IPO and suppress all kinds of speculative pactions such as backdoor and mergers and acquisitions.

Within this cycle, there has been a wave of systematic decline in recent years in the emerging industries, which are highly valued by the market, including VR, sports, film and television entertainment, games and marketing.

Let's take another look at two examples: Sanfo outdoor, which was launched in 2016, has dropped from 122 yuan to 46 yuan since the end of November last year. The market value has been depressed to 3 billion 400 million yuan.

In March this year, the newly released sports new stock, Gao Gao Di, was listed on the stock market in March 27th. After the stock market ended, the stock price dropped from 83 yuan to 52 yuan, and the market of a newly listed company was also suppressed at about 3 billion yuan.

After the listing of the stock market, the stock price trend has continued to fall in the near future.

Sanfo's recent outdoors share price trend, and its share price dropped by 24% after March.

It is not difficult to understand the limit of your return.

During the suspension period, the policy is more stringent, the market callback, and the environment itself is not good. After the resumption of the market, the market will surely fall, and the stock price callback is not unusual.

2, the market value of listed companies is relatively high, and the valuation of takeover pactions is too expensive?

If we do some simple and qualitative prediction, we can actually judge the trend of the stock price after the paction.

According to the previously announced paction volume, the valuation price of the two sides' acquisition of Welsh fitness brand is 2 billion 700 million yuan.

In 2016, the profit from the whole Welsh fitness program was about about 40000000 yuan.

According to the information received in the industry, the two sides' agreement purchase should be part of cash plus equity issuance.

The terms of gambling may be over 500 million yuan in Welsh's fitness brand in the next 3 years.

If the average contribution to each year, Welsh needs to complete the profit index will be changed to 100 million yuan, calculated by the end of 2017, the corresponding acquisition price earnings ratio of 2 billion 700 million yuan may be about 20 times.

Generally speaking, it is about 15 times for the listed company to purchase the bid.

More than 20 times the price of mergers and acquisitions is clearly not cheap.

On the other hand, if the market value of the bird is about 19 billion yuan before the suspension, it will be about 22 billion yuan after the completion of the merger. The 300 million profit of the original company's main business, plus Welsh's annual profit of 200 million yuan, is 500 million yuan.

22 billion yuan market capitalization divided by 500 million yuan of single year profit, we can see that after the merger and acquisition paction, the company's P / E ratio is at least 40 times.

For a listed company that has acquired the profit target, there is still a 40 price earnings ratio after the merger of profits. This is a relatively high valuation.

The buyer of the two tier market will be disturbed. After the completion of the M & A, the valuation is still so high.

As a matter of fact, there has been a wave of market advance in the early days when the birds were suspended.

From September to December last year, the company's share price rose from 24 yuan to 31 yuan, or nearly 30%.

If we remove this part of the market value that has risen earlier, then the space for upward impact of the price of the bird will be further compressed after the resumption.

That is why it is easy to understand the cautious attitude of funds on the market.

3, fitness industry is too traditional, lack of effective growth and imagination?

In fact, since the announcement of Welsh's acquisition in December last year to a few months now, the two level market is also a process of heating up to cold.

In the early days, everyone was interested in the fitness market.

Fitness is undoubtedly the best part of cash flow in sports industry, except for shoes and garments.

As well as the rapid expansion of fitness crowd, all two level market investors are full of expectations.

But objectively speaking, this Welsh is a veteran and traditional company.

Since it is tradition, there are certain disadvantages.

For example, the traditional fitness industry's heavy assets running cash flow business mode, can not reflect profits in the book, is the most headache problem in the gym industry.

In addition, the traditional gym has heavy sales and light service, and the ceiling of performance scale is too obvious.

These are the problems that investors in the two tier market have begun to ask for more than a few months.

It may also be another factor that they hesitate to bet on.

"The bid is good, but the valuation is a bit high. In the short term, Welsh's performance is no problem, but in the long run, the mode of heavy sales and light service may overdraw future growth."

A Beijing large buyer fund manager said.

4, there will still be uncertainties.

Up to now, the agreement between the two sides has been announced, but because it may involve the issue of the issue of the issue of the issue of the additional shares, and the interests of the small and medium-sized shareholders, it needs the approval of the SFC.

Up to now, there is no clear information about whether or not it will pass smoothly.

For regulators, as soon as the middle of the year is coming, they may see the completion of the semi annual performance of the bid in the first year and decide whether to pass it in the end.

This may be another factor that worries investment institutions.

But in any case, in today's A share market, the logic of merger and acquisition storytelling is really not so popular.

To sum up, in the whole A shares fell, the M & a paction policy supervision is more stringent, sports and other emerging plates are being suppressed in the short term, the valuation of the company and the valuation of the bid are relatively high, and the paction is uncertain.

Whether the future will continue to fall or when to open up is hard to judge, but in the short term, a strong upward trend is impossible.

For many sports concept stocks, such as "noble bird", an irreversible fact is that the whole A stock environment is entering the cycle of value return.

IPO opened the gate, and all kinds of backdoor mergers and acquisitions were strictly controlled. The promotion of similar registration system showed the attitude of regulators.

That is to say, in the future, the supply of new shares in the A share market will continue to flow and supply will increase. The price of the entire stock market will be diluted, and the overall valuation center of the market will be lowered, and the value of shell resources will shrink greatly.

In the future, the prospect may be the state of the new three boards today. The companies in the head absorb large amounts of capital, and the large number of listed companies fall sharply because of the lack of quality assets.

Therefore, whether Future Ltd's market value can grow is infinitely close to the core value of the company itself.

The real thing to do is to abandon the glitzy capital operation and conceptual hype, make achievements grow, and effectively release profits, similar companies will become new favorites.

Similar to today's market for the return of birds, unreasonable purchase price will be callback, unreasonable high market value will also decline, everything is following the trend of value return.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoe and hat net information report.