Is The Omen Of China'S Economic Collapse Going To Be True Or False?

China's foreign trade achieved a good start in the first quarter of this year.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China's foreign trade import and export value increased by 15% in the first quarter, and its exports increased by 8.2%, and imports increased by 24%.

In particular, in the first quarter of this year, China's import value has achieved rapid growth under the dual promotion of the sharp rise in commodity prices and the sharp rise in imports.

This is a high growth rate of over 20% of imports in the first quarter after 5 years.

Among them, the volume of crude oil imports increased by 15% over the same period, the price rose by 55.7% over the same period, the iron ore imports increased by 12.2%, the price rose by 70.5%, coal imports increased by 33.8%, prices rose 88.5%, rubber imports increased by 35.8%, and prices increased by 50.3%.

It is estimated that only the growth of import value of the 4 commodities will increase the growth rate of China's import value by 10 percentage points over the same period.

Meanwhile, the export value in the first quarter of this year increased slowly.

Among them, textile, clothing, shoes and furniture and other traditional labor-intensive products and the export of agricultural products are in a low slump, which is the main factor of dragging down the whole export. In the first quarter, the clothing export value dropped by 0.1%, the textile increased by 1.2%, and the furniture increased by 2.1%.

An increase of 6% and an increase of 1.1% of agricultural products were significantly lower than the overall growth rate of China's export value of 8.2% over the same period.

In contrast to the sluggish export of traditional labour intensive products, the export of high value-added products is booming. For example, the export value of electromechanical products increased by 8.6% in the first quarter, of which the value of mobile phone exports increased by 13.8% and the value of auto exports increased by 22.9%. Such products are becoming an important support for China's exports.

On the same day when China Customs announced the first quarter of China's import and export data, another group of striking data is the import and export of goods trade in the world or major economies in 2016 by the world trade organization.

Among them, the most important concern is the change in the ranking of the world's largest trade in goods. China's title of the world's largest power for three consecutive years has once again returned to the former champion of the United States, and the difference between the two countries is only 20 billion dollars.

The reason for this change is, on the one hand, that

Leading to the narrowing of the gap, although China has maintained the status of the world's largest exporter for ten consecutive years since 2007, the gap between the US and the US has increased from 70 billion 400 million US dollars in 2007 to US $770 billion 900 million in 2015. The gap widened nearly ten times in the past ten years, but in 2016, the gap was narrowed for the first time to 643 billion 600 million US dollars, narrowing US $127 billion 300 million compared with 2015. On the other hand, the global commodity prices remained low in 2016, resulting in a sharp decline in the scale of China's imports, which is closely related to the relatively high proportion of the bulk commodities in China's imports of products.

There have been comments that the status of China's largest trade in goods is not guaranteed and exports continue to slow down, which is a harbinger of China's economic collapse.

However, the author thinks that such a change is normal. China has only slowed down its pace in the long development of foreign trade.

There is an old Chinese saying, "don't be afraid of slow, afraid of standing."

The same is true of the development.

In the past ten years since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, global economic development and trade in goods have been stagnant. No matter the developed economies such as Europe, America and Japan, or emerging market countries, they have all been spared. Countries all over the world have made joint efforts to improve this predicament.

Today, however, such efforts have been divided.

In some western developed countries, the trend of anti globalization and protectionism were beginning to set up artificial obstacles for the recovery of Global trade.

In such a complex environment, China, as the leader of the world's second largest economies and trade in goods, has taken the initiative to shoulder the heavy responsibility of promoting economic globalization. No matter last year's G20 summit in Hangzhou or the Boao forum for Asia this year, China has appealed to conform to the trend of economic globalization, insist on promoting the process of trade and investment facilitation, and advocate that all countries should strengthen communication, coordination and cooperation, and push economic globalization towards a more open, inclusive, inclusive and balanced direction.

Faced with the severe external market environment, despite the slowdown in the pace of foreign trade development, China has always been working towards the goal of global economic prosperity.

While giving an initiative to the world, China pays more attention to the pformation and upgrading of its own trade structure.

Especially in the export field, while weakening the traditional competitive advantage, China is improving the added value of export products by encouraging enterprises to actively carry out technological innovation and the high-end extension to the value chain, thus making up for the decline of traditional export products.

The phased slowdown in the pace of China's foreign trade export is not a harbinger of any economic collapse, but a prelude to the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

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