&#34 Of The Stock Market; Asset Bubble " Why Is It So Big?

Since the beginning of the year, the RMB exchange rate has been very stable. Therefore, many people believe that the performance of China's stock market should be good. The reason is that the demand for foreign exchange decreases after the exchange rate stability, and the outflow of hot money will decrease. In addition, the government's regulation and control of the property market is becoming more and more powerful and the means are more and more.

But the performance of the stock market has not been satisfactory recently. Even the inspiring theme of the "one belt" and "Xiong an new district" has failed to infuse the stock market with lasting vigour. It seems that everyone has turned a blind eye to the recovery of the global economy and the recovery of the domestic economy.

The reasons for the weakening of the stock market are nothing more than the following points: first, the economic indicators have improved, but I am afraid they have already reached the top. The stock index is the leading indicator of the economy, not the lagging reflection of the economic data. Two, financial supervision is becoming more and more severe, leading to the upward trend in the interest rate of the financial market and the double killing of the stock debt.

From the perspective of policy regulation, the severity of the property market policy is much higher than that of the stock market. For example, the number of restricted cities is increasing, interest rates on mortgage loans are rising, the proportion of Shoufu is rising, and the price of Yishoufang is restricted.

In addition, the tightness of financial regulation policy has a negative impact on the property market. But why is the property market not as fragile as the stock market? I'm afraid this is not related to the property market still in a bull market.

Compared with the stock market, the property market has three advantages: first, in addition to investment or speculative demand, there are still rigid demand and improved demand in the property market; second, China's pition from an agricultural society to an industrial society for less than 30 years, coupled with the far-reaching impact of farming culture, has led to a preference of people to land and housing more than other investment varieties, far more people than many people, and the ancestors of the nomadic people are Westerners. Third, as a new market, A shares have various defects in the governance structure of the listed companies, so that the exercise rights of minority shareholders are limited.

From the current situation in China, the hot spot of property sales is shifting from a second tier city to a three or four tier city, which seems to be related to the reversal of the population flow. It is also related to the lower inventory of the three or four tier property market and the relatively low price to income ratio. It seems to be experiencing a "bullish market" in the bull market. However, with the experience of the stock market, "bullish" often means the bull market is coming to an end.

For the stock market, its trend can not be overcome.

Constraints.

China's economic growth has been in a slow downward process since its peak in 2010, and there has been no sign of continuous improvement in earnings growth of listed companies.

Therefore, after a brief bull market in the first half of 2015, it is at least a "adjustment period" even if it is not defined as a bear market.

Most people would think that the property market bubble is bigger than the stock market. After all, the stock market has been falling and the property market has been rising. Perhaps the average price earnings ratio of the stock market should not be high, such as the average price earnings ratio of the A stock exchange of the Shanghai Stock exchange is only 16 times.

The price earnings ratio of the property market is comparable to that of the stock market, because both the P / E ratio and the ratio of house price to income can be regarded as the corresponding year.

At present, the national average housing price income ratio is about 21 times, which is obviously higher than the Shanghai Stock Exchange's A stock average price earnings ratio.

If the main board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange,

Considering the shares of gem, the average price earnings ratio of all A shares is about 35 times.

In addition, in the more than 3000 listed companies, the stock price ratio is more than 50 times that of 2000 stocks, that is, more than 2/3, and the median price earnings ratio of all A shares is about 70 times.

Housing prices and income ratio of the highest city is Shenzhen, about 45 times, ranking first in the world, Beijing, Shanghai and so on not more than 40 times, the median income ratio of all cities in China is about 22 times. Therefore, compared to the real estate market income ratio, A shares, both the average price earnings ratio or the price earnings ratio of the median, far exceeds the property market.

Someone counted the dividend payout data of 2011- share listed companies in the year of 2011- 2015, and found that only 207 companies had an average dividend yield of more than 2% in five years, and only 80 companies with an average dividend yield of more than 3%, accounting for 6.55% and 2.53% respectively in the total number of listed companies.

The ratio of rent to housing is the ratio of rent to housing, which is about 2% of the national average.

Average dividend yield.

The above analysis shows that if asset bubbles exist in the property market, the asset bubble of the stock market is even greater.

After China's stock market has experienced a sharp decline from more than 5000, why does it still have such a big bubble? This is related to the strong liquidity of the A share market, that is, liquidity determines the level of risk premium. The better the assets with liquidity, the lower the demand for risk return, that is, the lower the discount rate of the paction price.

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