PTA Doubts Remain Whether The June Trend Can Get Rid Of The Weak Pattern.

At the beginning of May, following the recovery of crude oil prices, PTA futures ushered in a slight rise. In the middle and last ten days, oil prices dropped sharply, and PTA showed a marked decline. In June 1st, the price of the futures price hit a new low this year.

Although PTA has rebounded this week, I still have doubts about whether the trend of PTA6 months can get rid of the weak pattern.

In June 2017, the negotiations on PX ACP (Asian contract price) ended without any result. The final negotiating range of the trading set remained at 790 to 810 US dollars / ton CFR, which was 27 to 7 US dollars / ton CFR compared with May Taiwan PX average monthly price.

In June, the ACP negotiations failed to achieve. On the one hand, in the background of the weak oil price, the market kept a partial expectation of the PX price trend. On the other hand, the PX market supply and demand loosely also had a certain pressure on the price.

With regard to crude oil prices, the trend of oil prices is not matched with supply and demand changes since the end of May.

There is a contradiction between the reduction of OPEC production and the increase in US production, so that the pressure on the supply of crude oil remains.

It is more optimistic that the consumption of oil products in the US, China, India and the Middle East is in an upward cycle, and the stock of crude oil is also in the process of continuous improvement.

Therefore, before the oil price returns to supply and demand, market sentiment will still be the recent leading factor. Whether the short-term oil price can stabilize or stabilize is related to the change of PTA cost line.

PX supply and demand, 2017 1-4 PX supply and demand data show that the domestic PX overall supply is adequate.

This year, the domestic PX plant operating rate has risen, and the output has also shown a good performance over the same period.

In the first 4 months, domestic PX output totaled 3 million 570 thousand tons, an increase of 15.57% over the same period, while the total volume of imports during the same period totaled 4 million 553 thousand and 100 tons, up 11.31% over the same period last year.

According to the calculation of PTA production, the demand for PX in 1-4 months is about 7 million 720 thousand tons, so the total supply of PX is still surplus.

In May, the domestic PX utilization rate was 71.69%.

The capacity base is 13 million 920 thousand tons, the domestic output is about 830 thousand tons, basically equal to the output of 846 thousand tons in April, and domestic supply will maintain a relatively good growth trend compared to the same period.

In June, the PX seasonal overhaul ended, and the influence of maintenance gradually declined, and the operating rate of the industry would rise significantly.

Therefore, the supply of PX will continue to be sufficient.

The price of short staple is basically down, and the lower part is low concentration.

Xiajin area

Individual quotations are 4800-5000 yuan / ton, and actual turnover is slightly lower.

The atmosphere of domestic dissolving pulp remains slack, and the focus of discussion is 7000-7100 yuan / ton.

Due to the greater resistance of the whole shipment, the concentration and reduction operations of pulp factories increased. This week, the mainstream pulp plant of East China was going to produce pulp. The Anhui pulp factory also planned to stop the overhaul of the dissolving pulp production line for 1 months in July.

But the Rizhao new dissolving pulp project is currently being actively debugged. If the factory forecasts smooth progress, it will produce qualified products next week.

In the early stage of the dissolving pulp, the focus of the negotiations was 820-840 US dollars / ton, and the downstream part was mainly purchased, and the overall turnover was not large.

Some of the new quotations this month are expected to be released early next week.

Viscose filament is weak finishing, the trading atmosphere is light, purchasing enthusiasm is not high, the viscose factory shipments are difficult, inventory has risen, the overall price changes little, but the preferential strength is bigger.

At present, the spot price of PX:CFR in Taiwan remains near $800 per ton. If crude oil prices keep near $50, the price of PX will not rise or fall.

Affected by this, PTA cost support may move downward.

In the calculation of PX790 US dollars / ton, the cost of PTA production is near 4270 yuan / ton, calculated at the closing price of PTA in June 2nd, the disk profit is 459 yuan / ton, and the spot profit is around 380 yuan / ton.

There is still room for the compression of PTA disk profits.

Therefore, in the short term, at the cost side price is weak, as well as the basic lack of bright spots, PTA still has the possibility of continuing to find the bottom.

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