Throwing And Storing Will Continue The Structural Tightening Of Xinjiang Cotton Supply.

Since the dumping in March, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic cotton has eased. There is no strong driving factor in the market, and the spot remains stable. There is a big hedging pressure in the Zhengzhou cotton market, with a bit of price support and an overall interval oscillation.

Entering the June, throwing storage will continue, Xinjiang cotton supply structure is tight, stock is strong.

Recently, due to the increase of the discount rate, the Zheng cotton 1709 contract has fluctuated in a narrow range of 15300 yuan / ton, but due to the increase of the ratio of the resources of the high rise water point, the future

Oscillation interval or down.

In the 3 to May, 1 million 280 thousand tons of dumping and storage were imported, and more than 700 thousand tons were imported. At the beginning of the dumping, there were 2 million 480 thousand tons of commercial stocks, which totaled 4 million 460 thousand tons of cotton, but the actual consumption was less than 2 million tons.

As of the end of May, domestic cotton business inventories reached 1 million 520 thousand tons, much higher than the same period last year.

In the current high inventory, the state reserves continue to come out, and the total supply of cotton in the new cotton market is adequate.

Textile orders weakened, profits declined and cotton demand declined.

In June, the order of textile enterprises decreased significantly. In addition to the coming of the textile off-season, it also related to the decline in the price of long-term printing yarn, and some orders were shifted to outer yarn.

In addition, domestic yarn prices continue to decline, and cotton prices are strong, textile yarn profits are in a downward trend, so the textile enterprises on the high price of cotton bearing capacity, demand for light.

At present,

The proportion of Xinjiang cotton dropped daily from 60% to 40%, and the Xinjiang cotton produced in the market in 2016 is relatively low, especially in Xinjiang.

Due to the requirements of production technology and spinning quality, spinning enterprises are more interested in the use of Xinjiang cotton. Therefore, the structural supply of Xinjiang cotton is tight. The proportion of Xinjiang cotton increased from 60% to 75% in the state store paction, and the difference from the real estate cotton price to nearly 1000 yuan / ton.

Although the futures prices continued to fall, the spot price of the market was stable, and the price of Xinjiang cotton in 2016 was stable between 16100 and 16500 yuan / ton.

According to the author's investigation, raw material inventory of spinning enterprises is higher than that of last year, but the overall level is moderate. The enterprises with relatively tight funds are only on the low side of 20 days, most of which are in 1 to February.

meanwhile

Reflecting, the order has not reached the degree of deterioration, although the downstream consumption has different degrees of light, but not the cliffs downfall, therefore, the buyer's demand in the market still remains.

As of June 7th, Zheng cotton has generated 5764 warehouse receipts and forecasts, mainly Xinjiang cotton, accounting for 37% of the 1709 positions.

At present, futures discount spot is 700 yuan / ton, and spot price increases, so there is a certain support for short-term Zheng cotton price.

Since its dumping in March, Zheng cotton has been oscillating between 15200 and 16200 yuan per ton.

Below the interval, the market price cotton and the Zheng cotton warehouse receipt have the advantage relative to the market price, the spot price increases sharply to pull Zheng cotton to rebound.

400 to 500 yuan / ton of cotton has been rare, and the proportion of cotton that has risen above 800 yuan / ton has increased.

On the basis of stable spot prices, the futures price points are concentrated or downwards.

At present, Zheng cotton has a larger margin of 700 to 800 yuan / ton due to the discount of spot water, and the market point price increases, and it rebounded in the short term.

But in the future, with the reduction of high cost performance resources, the proportion of high price of water resources will increase, and the downward and downward movement of Zheng cotton oscillation interval will not exclude the possibility of moving below 15000 yuan / ton.

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