To Bubble, Go Idle, Leveraged Busy A Shares Market Is Not Busy.

China's stock market is already a record high value market for global stock market.

The Chinese should not be so self belittling that they should take out the median price earnings ratio of any other person's house 70 times, or deduct the high price earnings ratio of the financial stocks, and how many times the market share of the price earnings ratio is 100 times.

Bull market, stock market and bear market.

When financial leverage and stock market participants are hard to make money, all kinds of national teachers and insights emerge.

Although the morning stocks fell more or less, but in the near future, whether the Shanghai Composite Index rose 50, the central card fell by 500, or the 500 rise in the card and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 50, there was a plate rising, that is, the concept of state-owned assets reform in Shanghai.

Thanks to the SFC's slowing down the pace of IPO, paying more attention to revitalize the stock and supporting the policy pformation of the reform of state owned assets and merger and reorganization, Shanghai's state-owned assets reform is brewing a new round of more vigorous reform of state assets.

The "three batch" ("innovation and development group, consolidation and consolidation, cleaning up and withdrawal") is a feature of the reform of state owned assets in Shanghai, including the public pfer of the largest shareholder of the state, shell and shell listing, mixing with international emerging industry giants, pformation and upgrading into first-class emerging industries, etc., and will continue to push forward in the second half of the year, instead of being confined to asset injection only.

And the power of examination and approval has fallen into the hands of the provincial and municipal SASAC.

Today, under the leadership of Haili shares and two shares of Huaxin shares, the entire stock market of Shanghai stocks is thriving and thriving.

Recently, the new characteristics of Shanghai's state-owned shares are: after the resumption of trading, the stocks that have continued to decline have been rising steadily after the stabilization of the market, such as ST Xin Mei, Yun Sai Chi Lian, Shanghai electric and so on. The stocks that have been slashed sharply, cut down to 10 yuan or less than 10 yuan have rebounded rapidly, and the stocks that have been pulled up and down have no longer fallen back to their original place, but they have been pulled up again after a small amount of consolidation, such as the faucet, Jinjiang investment, chlor alkali and so on.

It is impossible to predict which Shanghai state capital stock will be trading or which will be suspended.

How to measure the dynamics and progress of financial leverage?

Recalling the reorganization of the securities market, the collapse and reorganization of a number of companies such as the South and Huaxia, and even the enterprises of the radish chapter were safe.

From the market reaction, the stock market fluctuates slightly, but there is no fear of tax dodgers and liquidity. Compared with the stock market and fuses, it is hard to say how severe the market is.

At present, the volume and price of liquidity are appropriate? The SFC has said that it is impossible to make clear the macro prudence of the central bank.

But capital market regulation is certainly not strict.

In many industries, the financial industry and the Internet industry may be more fraudsters.

Over the years, the capital market has also suffered from the inflow of money and money, and the risk of imprisonment for illegal crimes.

The securities and Futures Commission said that since 2017, there has been a record high level of violation of discipline and personnel in the securities industry. However, various undercurrents continue to surge under the influence of interest. Many times, the stock market in China has a sense of ridicule.

Second, there has been some time for financial deleveraging. How do people measure the basic completion of financial leverage?

I guess there are two ways of measuring: first, the expansion of financial institutions' negative pace, which is roughly consistent with the changes in the central bank's negative balance.

Since 2015, China's central bank's negative balance has fluctuated or even been reduced, but financial institutions have continued to expand the scale, resulting in an excessive increase in China's financial industry. The financial idling and financial leverage of the mismatch and risk mismatch are gradually popular.

In the 10 years since the subprime mortgage crisis, the Central Bank of the United States is facing pressure to increase interest rates and reduce the scale. Under this background, it is necessary for financial institutions to reflect and synchronize the changes in the negative balance of central bank funds.

The two is whether China's financial system can withstand external shocks. In a simple way, Sino US relations start smoothly, but as a big country, singing and dancing is a pient process, and a certain degree of controllable frictional conflict is normal.

If Sino US conflicts occur, can China's property market and stock prices withstand external shocks? Financial leverage will force China's financial system to withstand moderate shocks.

Now, the degree of financial deleveraging is not strict. The risk perception and expansion impulse of financial institutions do not stop. Chinese asset prices may not be reliable.

Financial leverage will last for at least two or three years.

Under the background that the central bank strictly adhered to the interest rate corridor, the possibility of external storage loss and stock market weakness is very small, but the overall liquidity is tight and asset prices continue to bear pressure is inevitable.

Third, in the financial leverage, the bull market has not yet come, porcelain who touched the day, who moved who cheese, too complex; porcelain porcelain cost is increasingly low, resulting in porcelain porcelain.

The stock market is a complex ecosystem. Any regulatory policy changes will touch quite a lot of interest groups.

In addition, the Internet big character poster is very rampant now. At a very low cost, we can mobilize a batch of public numbers to do the costing or even splashing pollution beyond the bottom line.

In the current system of public opinion and emotional pmission, it seems that the securities and Futures Commission suddenly becomes the focus.

In addition, officials are not afraid of praise or criticism, and things are becoming more and more lively.

If the network media continues to challenge the bottom line integrity, the possibility of a strong cleaning at the time of the clamor will be too great.

Fourth, touch porcelain needs to be said. The core word is that the SFC failed to control the rhythm of IPO and led to market turbulence. This is very interesting.

First, in order to maintain the stock index, stopping or reducing the issue of new shares has proved undesirable in the past 10 years.

Two, the queuing of IPO is so huge. When accelerating the pace of listing, there are few listed companies that can withdraw the listing application. This reflects that even when issued at a faster pace, the shareholders of the company are still satisfied with the issue price. If they think that they are selling cheap, shareholders will naturally not sell, and do not flatten the risk return of the one or two market, which is the long pain of the two tier market.

Three, even now, many large shareholders and executives are still trying to reduce their shareholdings. This shows that this special group is very clear that the stock price is not right for their company now.

Four, in essence, IPO is an administrative license, which will naturally have licence value, that is, shell resource value.

If the new issue can persist in normalization, a rotten company will not be miraculously reborn. If the share price is lower than the cost that the company keeps listing, it is higher than the value of the shell resources of the company.

In the US stock market, companies choose to take the initiative to withdraw from the market because of the pressure of stock splitting and the high cost of regulation.

Therefore, we hope that the SFC will slow down or even suspend IPO because of the current stock market index. I am afraid it is not a foresight but a retrogression.

It looks as if IPO will continue, and the liquidity of the stock market is generally normal, and the stock market will not be pushed back.

The fifth, first dramatic thing is that if the porcelain is not successful, the bull market is bound to fail. This remains to be seen.

In 2017, the overall economic performance was high and low. However, the macro and stock markets were not just like the shadow, but the relationship between people and dogs. The dog was probably behind the macro man. When the dog ran forward, the market could drag on. Therefore, in the short term, it was difficult to determine whether a person was in front of a dog or not, but in the long run, it was a man who led a dog away.

In the first half of this year, a better macro didn't get a better stock market bond market. But if the macro policy is soft in the second half of the year, the IPO policy has not changed, and the stock market bond market has picked up again. Is it not necessary for chairman Liu to steal joy and let the chairman have some awkwardness in his work dinner? Now it seems that the interest rate level in the debt market has been much higher than that in the same period. This means that there are two levels of credit debt in the market, and there is no liquidity in the two tier market. How long can it last?

Similarly, it is foreseeable that China's inflation pressure is not great in the second half of the year. Before and after November, CPI and PPI may fall to less than 1%. How long will the interest rate of interest rate keep up? So the second half of the bond market will be worse or better. The same confusion lies in the stock market. Some say that the funds that have entered the property market and Hong Kong stock are all considering and trying to enter A shares. After all, from the price to earnings ratio and the market rate, the US stocks are more expensive, while the difference between A shares and H shares tends to disappear.

If market opportunities are not just 50 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, who can say that in the context of financial leverage and IPO, the trend of the stock market must fall in the second half? It looks like the real estate market in the second half of the year is more clear, and the trend of stock market bond market needs to be treated cautiously. It is likely that there is an opportunity or at least not too bad.

Recently, President Liu is advising brokers not to focus solely on underwriting sponsors, but also to make an inventory of mergers and acquisitions and revitalize the stock market.

It also emphasized that capital market should provide more professional services to help state-owned enterprises reform, and to catalyze innovation in order to go to capacity and go to zombie enterprises.

These are all right. After reading, we know why we must sigh today.

Before the stock market turmoil, I wrote a little article about "deep V or dew point", which is very simple. The stock market problem has been very obvious at that time. This gave the Chinese government a rare opportunity, the merger of the South car and the north car and its support from the capital market, reflecting the deep expectation of investors for the mixed reform. Relying on the capital market, the Chinese government has the opportunity to rapidly promote the mixed reform. You can define which industries should hold 66% or more than 51%, which need the first largest shareholder or the "gold share" one vote veto status, which state-owned enterprises can fully release the state-owned shares and even which can exit, which are suitable for executive incentives and ESOP, and which can be combined together. In 2015

There is a large number of central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises with high government shareholdings. China's central car has received an unprecedented enthusiastic support, indicating that investors will be willing to pay high prices if they really touch on the reform of the soul and destiny.

It is a pity that the share price of the car case will soon become a deep V. What President Liu called today is exactly what the market expected two years ago.

And then, the market did not usher in deep reform of state owned enterprises, no merger and reorganization, no revitalize stock, no farewell zombies.

The stock market quickly "dew point".

To a large extent, the stock market turbulence is a heartbreak for the name of reform, and then let go of the false reform.

Up to now, the SFC has expressed similar meanings again, which means little in the market reaction.

Financial deleveraging has led to the meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Supervision is not moving, but the market has been knocked down by the porcelain traders and even touched opportunities. I dare not assert that the uncertainty of the market is often beyond our imagination.

Under the stock market dispute, the SFC always wants to replace the shareholders as a whole. Investors want to replace the SFC entirely.

What we can suggest is that since we have chosen the orientation of financial deleveraging and the marketization of stock market after deliberation, the authorities should insist on promoting such top-level design instead of shouting pain on the part of stakeholders. At the same time, we should keep the bottom line of risk and stability of liquidity, and avoid measures which are too eager to lead to risks.

But more importantly, the authorities do not need to ask too much about the people, nor do they need to be too rigid in the so-called public opinion.

The national debate on the reduction of state-owned shares has no end. At present, Internet public opinion is not necessarily the mainstream public opinion.

What the SFC needs to do is to have the patience and patience to rationalize and establish rules instead of responding to and dodging porcelain.

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