The Curtain On The Increase Of Equity Assets Is Gradually Opening Up The Market And Becoming Steady.

In terms of trend, this year's A stock tone is "steady progress". The three types of stocks, such as big consumption concept stocks, value growth stocks and undervalued blue chips, have a strong allocation value. Especially in the context of low market risk preference, some growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise market have been greatly adjusted. Re examining these growth stocks' valuation and growth matching degree is one of the core elements of future investment.

In the first quarter of 2017, public funds and blue chips returned to a sweet honeymoon period.

In the context of A stock market IPO normalization, new supply of new shares, and growth stock valuation bubble backlash, on the one hand, most of the equity funds actively increased the allocation of blue chips on the main board, substantially reducing the "small and medium-sized votes"; on the other hand, with the increase in the redemption of the money fund, the shake up of the bond market and the change of market liquidity, the curtain of the increase of equity assets is slowly beginning to open.

QDII fund performance eye-catching

The quarterly report of the public offering fund in 2017 showed that the overall performance of public fund products was not satisfactory in the first quarter of this year, and all kinds of products achieved positive returns.

Shanghai securities fund evaluation center statistics show that the QDII fund has strong performance. In the first quarter of 2017, the yield was the leading, the average net yield was 5.70%; the stock type, the mixed type and the index fund were in the right place, the average net return was 4.12%, 2.25% and 2.95% respectively; the bond fund performance was mediocre, and the average net income rate in the first quarter was 0.28%.

Statistics show that in the absolute return rate, 195 of the equity funds included in the statistics, 8 of the funds get positive returns.

The yield distribution range is -6.14% to 16.91%.

Among them, the net value rose more than 10% of the fund's share of 23.

The performance of bond funds is far less than that of equity products.

In the first quarter of this year, 1027 of the 1391 debt based products achieved positive returns. The overall performance was better than the previous stage, and the yield distribution ranges from -3.21% to 45.78%.

The top ranking bond funds are ICBC Credit Suisse credit B, Bank of China convertible bonds, enhanced A and Bank of China debt enhancement B, with yields of -2.99%, -3.09% and -3.21%.

From the perspective of asset allocation, the fund's large asset position also supports the change of performance list.

Compared with the end of 2016, in the first quarter of 2017, the share and cash share of the fund shifted from a decline to a rise, and the proportion of bonds continued to rise. The proportion of other assets rose from a rise to a decline, of which the share assets rose from negative to 12.6%, indicating that the "favored" level of equity assets is far greater than that of bonds.

Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Center analyst Gao Yunpeng believes that the first quarter of 2017, the overall shocks of A shares upward, after the beginning of the year, the market was promoted under the "belt and road", "state owned enterprises reform" and other sectors. In March, the A shares were insufficient to maintain the range of shocks.

Overall, the market trend is divided.

Index performance is better than small and medium-sized plates.

The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen stock index rose 3.83% and 2.47% respectively in the first quarter, and the performance of the growth enterprise market was weak, down 2.51%.

In the bond market, due to the weakness of the overall performance of the bond market in the first quarter, the bond market experienced another wave of callbacks after the fourth quarter of 2016, and then the market maintained a narrow oscillation, which posed a challenge to the debt based income.

According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities, the two main industries in the first quarter of 2017 were the household appliances, beverages, household light industrial food, electronic manufacturing components and other partial consumer industries. The reduction was mainly based on mergers and acquisitions and the valuation of higher TMT segments.

In addition, industries such as chemical industry, livestock breeding, automobile industry and so on were also reduced slightly by the fund.

Among them, computer applications and communications equipment altogether reduced the warehouse margin by more than 2%, before this "favored" Internet media industry is also reducing the list.

For a longer time axis, the trend of public funds raised from high valuation small cap stocks to blue chips is more obvious.

Since the fourth quarter of 2015, public funds have continued to build computers in the computer industry, and the proportion of positions has dropped from 15% to about 5%.

Over the same period, the location of the media industry and communications industry dropped to 3% and 2%.

The industry is mainly located in banks, pportation, non-ferrous metals, food and beverages.

Among them, food and beverage and architectural decoration were increased to 6% and 4% respectively.

According to the specific companies, compared with the 2015 annual report, only 48 companies whose shareholding ratio increased by more than 10% had 80 companies whose shareholding ratio dropped by more than 10%.

Among them, Dongfang Tong, Sanlian Hong Pu, Ding Jie software, Mike biology and Fuchun share and other "public offering old love" GEM companies has become the main reduction object in the past 1 years.

In the general stock fund 2016 stock market value of the top ten stocks, only Xinwei communications, a gem stock, the rest of mixed equity funds, balanced mixed funds and other types of equity products, the top ten stocks are not GEM stocks.

From the perspective of holdings, the 2016 annual report shows that the highest market capitalization of all types of public funds is Guizhou Moutai, GREE electric and the United States group. The market capitalization is 8 billion 600 million yuan, 7 billion 500 million yuan, and 5 billion 900 million yuan respectively.

In the active fund, the top three stocks with the highest market value are 44.56%, 30.92% and 30.27% respectively.

"In the first quarter of 2017, the trend of fund pfer reflects that rational investors, especially institutional investors, attach more importance to the long-term performance of listed companies. A shares have entered the era of" performance is king "and value investment era.

From the perspective of domestic asset allocation, institutional investors prefer A blue chips and white horse stocks.

For the small cap stocks with high valuation and strong speculation, it is difficult to see the systemic opportunities in the first half of 2015, and the market style has quietly shifted to blue chip and value investing.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund.

From 2012 to 2013, before the first half of the year, the blue chips were allocated to the growth stocks of the growth enterprise market, and then gradually returned to the undervalued blue chips in the second half of 2015.

"Style change is not only a change of market risk preference, but also a feedback of stock selection and timing strategy, and also a consideration of a significant pullback of growth stocks with high valuations under the background of increased supply of new shares and sub shares."

Cai Jianjun, the fund manager of the mixed fund, believes that the three major factors that determine the stock price are liquidity, corporate profitability and market risk preference.

The current market situation is similar to that of 2012, and systemic risk is accelerating.

In terms of trend, this year's A shares are basically "steady progress". The three types of stocks, such as big consumption concept stocks, value growth stocks and undervalued blue chips, have a strong allocation value. Especially in the context of low market risk preference, some growth stocks represented by the growth enterprise market have been substantially adjusted. Re examining the valuation and growth matching of these growth stocks is one of the core elements of future stock selection.

As the liquidity pressure on asset allocation increases, the demand for blue chips is undervalued again.

Statistics show that as of now, there are about 180 open-ended funds on the market, excluding more than 10 monetary funds and more than 60 bond funds. Among the remaining 100 equity funds, only 61 funds are hybrid funds with flexible allocation strategy. Quite a few of them are medical theme funds, Shanghai Hong Kong Theme fund and quantitative fund.

Liu Yiqian, an analyst at Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Research Center, thinks that since 2017, the investment style of A shares in blue chips and partial cycles is still continuing. The persistence of the market for blue chips has made the short-term performance of big blue chip funds very eye-catching.

Considering the valuation advantages of the A shares blue chips in the vertical comparison between domestic and foreign assets, combined with the performance of blue chips in the mild inflation economic environment, the large blue chip fund still has the allocation value.

"Choose the big blue chip fund to pay attention to three aspects: first, the investment style must be continuous, and there is no style drift in the past 3 years; two, the industry chooses to take into account the new and old economy, and the blue chip fund which is heavily involved in infrastructure, manufacturing and consumer industries can focus on it; three, the scale of the fund is appropriate. In the long run, the medium-sized fund is relatively high in terms of the flexibility of the industry allocation, the degree of change in the location control, and the efficiency of cash utilization; four, it requires the long-term performance of the fund to be stable, and the exchange efficiency of the income risk is high.

Liu Yiqian said.

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