Why Is It Difficult For The Stock Market To Expand And Innovate?

After the 3295 point of April, the stock market crash occurred on the 4 board. After experiencing "five poverty", 3016 points and 3022 points, the overwhelming majority of people worried that the "money shortage" and the superposition effect of financial deleveraging at the end of June would lead to "six absolutely".

However, in June, the stock market turned out to be "absolutely counter" (Jedi counterattack).

The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Shenzhen Branch, small and medium sized board and gem were not only closed out in the last week of June, but also received the monthly line.

The Shanghai Composite Index also conquered the 60 antenna and half line of the 2 and a half months, and all short, medium and long term averages, and the market turned into a fully meaningful long market.

What is particularly noteworthy is that in the latter half of this week, the market climbed 3193 points for 3 consecutive days, half of the 3196 point left in April 19th - 3189 point gap, and only one step away from the 3200 point integer.

When it comes to the June A shares, we can not help but blame Han Zhiguo's aggressive attack on the big and the non big reduction and the great leap forward of IPO, which has touched the three major policies of management: pushing the new policy of reducing the size and reducing the IPO rhythm, paying more attention to the reform of state-owned assets and the merger and reorganization, and revitalize the stock.

No matter how people evaluate Han Zhi Guo's views and the sharpness of language, he is brave enough to defend the "three principles", for the healthy development of the stock market, and for the voice of the hundreds of millions of investors. It is worthy of praise from all sides in the market, and is more close to the market and the public, so that the regulatory policy is more in line with the reality of the stock market.

I think it is difficult to recover the 3295 point lost in April.

But filling the gap is the proper meaning of the problem, that is, breaking through the 3200 point integer, and making up 3189 points - 3196 points and 3229 points - 3238 points two vacancy gaps.

Judging from the valuation, the weighted average price earnings ratio of the Shanghai composite index is only 17 times, which is lower than that of 998 points in 2005 and 21 times at 1664 in 2008.

If compared with the valuation of the international mature stock market, it will be more advantageous.

The US Dow Jones index of the 30 sample stocks is 18 times earnings, and the Hongkong Heng Sheng index, which is based on 34 sample stocks, is 16 times the price earnings ratio, while the similar sample reference system and the Shanghai Composite Index 50 have a 11.5 P / E ratio. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have only 13.5 times earnings.

Last week, MSCI took the initiative to include A shares and chose 222 large cap stocks in advance. The 195 medium cap stocks in the medium term indicate that the international stock market has fully recognized A shares as a global valuation depression.

From the technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Shenzhen index, small and medium sized board, and gem have been firmly on the five week moving average and are in the bull market trend.

In addition to the gem and small and medium-sized boards are still under pressure on the half line and the annual line, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Shenzhen index have recovered all the moving average and entered the slow bull market.

In particular, the Shanghai Composite Index, the 5 day moving average has been on the 120 day moving average, the 20 antenna has also been worn on the 60 day line, and the 60 antenna is expected to be flat after 10 days.

The Shanghai Composite Index 50 is also thriving, spreading to more value growth stocks.

Many people believe that in the whole June, the "beautiful 50" stock is still beautiful, and the "fatal 3000" stock continues to suffer.

In fact, this is based on the conclusion of the impression, here may wish to use data to speak.

Judging from the weekly gains this week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, small and medium sized board, gem, China card 500 and five index rose by 1.1%, 1.57%, 1.5%, 1% and 2.13%, which is already larger than the 0.83% and 1.21% gains of Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.

From the monthly growth rate in June, the above five indexes rose by 2.4%, 6.7%, 5.49%, 3.1% and 5.39%, which were also larger than the 2.86% and 4.98% gains of Shanghai Composite Index 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.

In June, the 50 increase in SSE was actually very small, far less than the three index in Shenzhen, while the Shenzhen index, the small and medium sized board and the CSI 500 index were the top.

This has given a lot of warning to many people who are misled by public opinion to prepare small cap stocks to replace the large stock index of the 50 index.

Why, then, will it be difficult for us to expand and innovate on top of the two gap in July?

On the one hand, the 3250 point - the 3295 point is the early intensive detention zone.

The single strand is at least 200 billion capital locked, and the new shares are also stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars, and it is unrealistic to expect rapid breakthroughs.

On the other hand, the number of days closing on the platform closed from 2016, that is, the turnover rate: the 3000 point platform closed for 71 days, the 3100 point platform closed for 97 days, while the 3200 point platform closed only 64 days, the turnover was not enough, and the profit and disintegration disk had double pressure.

Therefore, I think that the main task of the July market is to make up lessons at 3200 points and 3250 points, to shake the dishes repeatedly, and to move back and forth, so as to provide more time and space for expanding stock prices on a relatively low index.

From the economic fundamentals, the trend of stability and prosperity is obvious.

According to some authoritative media forecasts, GDP is expected to reach 6.9% in the first half of this year, far exceeding 6.5% of people's expectations.

Moreover, this is achieved by strong stimulation without flood irrigation.

Especially in the traditional "three carriages" that drive the economy, investment, export and consumption account for 60% of the investment in the past. Now it has become consumption, accounting for 60%, and the proportion of third industries and service industries has risen sharply, which shows that the mode and quality of economic growth have been obviously raised.

June

The PMI is 51.7%, and it is located on the upper part of the 11 consecutive months on the withered line, which makes people still have good expectations for China's economy in the second half of the year.

From the RMB exchange rate, it is obviously better than expected.

In the fourth quarter of last year, many people had a pessimistic prediction that the RMB exchange rate must be broken at 7 yuan at the end of the year.

After the new year's day, many people insist that the RMB exchange rate must be broken 7.3 yuan in the first half of the year, on the grounds that the United States needs to raise interest rates.

However, after raising interest rates in the United States, the yuan did not depreciate significantly, but it rose to 6.75 yuan on Friday, a 7 month high.

The introduction of countercyclical factors in the three quarter is expected.

Under the influence of extreme changes in the financial base area, the RMB is expected to continue to moderate rebound and remain stable.

Correspondingly, foreign exchange reserves in June are expected to increase by 5.

This has enabled investors to further realize the great improvement of China's comprehensive national strength, and no longer fear the Fed's interest rate increase, so that its self-confidence is greatly enhanced.

From the perspective of monetary policy, Yi Gang, vice president of the central bank, said: "financial leverage is a preliminary achievement".

This news is more important.

The 4 edition of the stock market crash, which began in April, appears to be the result of a continuous decline in the size of non crazy holdings, male security shares, sub shares, and GEM stocks. However, the initiator was the panic that the chairman of the CBRC sent out 25 documents dealing with financial risks in the first week of office, that is, the risks caused by disposing of risks.

Now, the formulation of "preliminary results of deleveraging" can at least stabilize the mood of the market.

although

The tone is still neutral, not tight, but from the earlier neutral to tight, to the three quarter neutral slightly loose, which is beneficial to the stock market.

There was no shortage of money at the end of June, indicating that the central bank promptly adjusted the policy.

From the perspective of stock market policies, the SFC's new regulations on refinancing, the new regulation of non reduction in size, slowing down the pace of IPO, supporting and strengthening mergers and acquisitions have shown the four major policy changes of the SFC.

Judging from the reform policy of state owned assets, the central restructuring conference said that the reform of state-owned enterprise system was completed before the end of the year.

Xiao Yaqing, director of the SASAC, has visited the state-owned assets reform of state-owned enterprises for the 8 time in the past few months.

The SASAC also listed the timetable for 20 pilot projects of mixed reform in the three quarter.

According to the SASAC's reform ideas, the central enterprises will be divided into three categories in the future, namely, entity industry group, investment company and operation company. The reform of central enterprises in the three quarter will be climax.

Judging from the policy of mergers and acquisitions, since the chairman Liu Shiyu made a speech on "to make more contributions to the reform of state-owned assets, mergers and acquisitions, revitalizing the stock", the SFC has frequently voicing encouragement and merger and reorganization in recent years, making the market of mergers and acquisitions in June showing a warming trend.

Since June, the frequency of the meeting of the SFC's M & a committee has increased significantly, and 10 meetings have been arranged, of which 7 working meetings have been held.

In May, the number of working meetings of the merger and reorganization committee was only 4 times.

Judging from the single month audit of mergers and acquisitions during the year, the number of enterprises on a single month in 1-5 months is 10, 6, 14, 11 and 11, 52.

Among them, except for all the meetings in April, one of the remaining months failed to pass the audit. A total of 48 projects passed, and the overall pass rate was 92.3%.

In June, there were 18 meetings, 2 were not approved, and the pass rate was 88.9%. In addition, the SFC announced that the 5 items will be meeting in the last week of June, and the June meeting will reach 23, which is more than two times the total number of the first 5 months.

This is a clear signal from the government's policy tilt on mergers and acquisitions.

Therefore, there is reason to believe that in the three quarter, there will be a large number of national reform stocks and restructured stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboards.

Over the past two weeks, many people have repeatedly predicted that Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have reached the top and can no longer rise. They should be adjusted so that small and medium cap stocks will rise.

It is too early to expect the two indices to peak.

Since the A share index is included in the MSCI index in June next year, the first 222 sample stocks will include all the Shanghai Stock Index 50 index and the bulk of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.

In addition to the national team, the public funds, private equity funds and institutional investors will inevitably carry out the allocation of positions ahead of schedule.

At the same time, SSE 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have changed from the fast rising stage to slow rising and lateral shock finishing, but they have not yet fallen below the five week EMA, so they can not be lightly exposed.

What's more, their valuation is only 11.5 and 13.5 times.

In the medium term, there should be about 10% more room for growth.

When SSE 50 took the lead in creating 2545 points and 2560 points, it led Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to hit 3635 points and 3676 points respectively.

This shows that the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index of 50 has not killed other stocks, but the value investment effect is spreading.

Accordingly, it can be considered that in eight or nine months, when the second tier blue chips, state-owned assets reform stocks, mergers and acquisitions restructured stocks and military industry stocks have strengthened, the Shanghai Composite Index will break through 3300 points and hit a new high.

At present, although the most stringent investor protection measures in history have been implemented to give investors a certain degree of protection, whether investors can earn money in the capital market can avoid unnecessary losses, but also need to see the degree of control of investors themselves.

If we take a step back, if investors have higher share swap rates and shorter shareholding periods and stronger speculation, then the significance of the measures will be greatly reduced, and the key must depend on investors themselves.

But in my opinion, for the A share market, although the market is gradually improving and gradually standardizing, the implementation of the most stringent investor protection measures in history is not enough.

Throughout the stock market, the number of compulsory delisting cases has increased gradually, and the risk of investors trapping investment traps has also increased. During this period, if there is no perfect claim mechanism or the claim efficiency is too low, the investors' vital interests will still be affected to a greater extent.

At the same time, the problem of capital, cost and information asymmetry in the market still can not be solved in real terms. For investors who lack long-term capital advantage, cost advantage and information advantage, it is necessary to create a three trading environment. Only then can we reduce the unreasonable risk of the stock market's wealth re distribution, and protect the vital interests of investors to a certain extent.

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