A Shares' "Rub In Effect" Has Stabilized Market Confidence To A Certain Extent.

In the near future, Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 hit a new high, while the Shanghai stock index remained at the front of the 3200 point. What is the reason behind it? Will this situation continue? The reason for this phenomenon is: on the one hand, the peripheral stock market is down. This week, the major stock markets in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have all fallen, which has a negative impact on the Asia Pacific region and has inhibited the enthusiasm of investors.

On the other hand, the degree of recognition of the leading effect of financial stocks is lower, and investors' willingness to catch up is not strong.

The Shanghai Stock Index 50 has risen to a new high since December 2015, and there are more profit making schemes, and upward pressure on cash flow has gradually increased.

The high dividend yield of financial stocks, due to the sharp rise in share prices, resulting in a large dividend yield, institutions gradually show willingness to reduce.

In addition, in the two quarter, under a series of intensified supervision measures of "one line, three meetings", the off balance sheet assets caused by deleveraging and outsourcing were reduced, or the performance of financial institutions in the semi annual report was affected.

This week, A shares performed better than other major markets.

The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen sharply to the highest level since the beginning of November, and the "bond pass" is ready to come out. A shares' "rub in effect" has stabilized market confidence to a certain extent.

Recently, the differentiation of Shanghai stock index and Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index mainly stem from the difference of constituent stocks.

Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are mainly dominated by traditional industries such as finance, real estate, manufacturing and so on. For example, when the financial industry is strictly regulated and orderly deleveraging is gradually digested by the market, the expected marginal turning point will appear, and the share price will be bottomed out ahead of schedule.

In the traditional industries such as manufacturing industry, the leading role of the traditional industries is the weakening of the physical demand and the production capacity, showing that the denominator shrinks larger than the shrinkage of the molecule, and the profitability of the micro economy rises, and the valuation center will also rise.

The Shanghai composite index includes the large and small cap stocks in the whole market. In the first half of the year, the interest rate center is rising and the extension of mergers and acquisitions is becoming stricter. The small cap stocks and the traditional industries are not the most leading enterprises. First, the decline of risk preference will reduce the valuation center of the corresponding industries. Two, the tightness of supervision will suppress the expectation of shell value and extension merger. Three, the profitability of many non leading companies is hurt in the process of improving the concentration of industries.

This economic environment driven by fundamental differentiation is tendencies, like the liquidity driven small cap premium in 2014 and 2015, which will be repeated over and over again, but the probability of continuation is very large.

Since the beginning of this year, the market has been moving towards consumption.

The blue chips of other sectors are concentrated, and the market shows a clear "28 differentiation" pattern.

The leading companies show obvious excess returns, while the small ones represented by the gem are flat.

Because these outstanding stocks are mostly the leading parts of each sector, the overall market capitalization is relatively large and the valuation is relatively low. Moreover, Shanghai and Shanghai 300 share a higher proportion in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, so Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have seen a new high this year, and the performance of Shanghai stock index is relatively dull.

Hot spots may spread, but we still believe that even if the second tier blue chips are rising, their gains and profits will be weaker than that of blue chips and white horse stocks.

An important logic of this round of blue chips is the upgrading of the profitability of the leading stocks under the concentration of the industry.

Whether from corporate profits or stock prices, the leading companies will be strong and strong, and short-term stagflation will not change their long-term trend.

Therefore, despite the proliferation of hot spots, the second tier white horse stocks may be on the rise, but the first is still the leading line.

Since June, there is a strong underlying logic behind the spread of hot spots in the market.

Under the background of strong supervision, the choice of funds for the hot spots is more important to the certainty of profitability, for example, the strong strength of insurance stocks is based on the interest rate rise under the background of debt stability.

The performance certainty and margin of valuation of blue chips are equivalent to put options in the downside of risk preference. The more pessimistic institutional capital for A shares, the more the allocation of such varieties will increase.

When the interest rate uplink of market worried in June did not materialize, some of the funds would be out of the speculative hot stage of the game when the risk preference rebounded.

This round of rebound process can not always be magnified, indicating that the diffusion of hot spots will be relatively weak, the recent round of movement is more part of the stock fund game behavior, it is difficult to form a trend.

From the recent active hot spots such as coal and hand travel, although there is some basic logic, but the certainty is relatively limited, so the recent hot spots are mainly based on the game rebound, and there is no obvious trend.

The overall performance of listed companies has achieved positive growth for the first time since the first quarter of 2015.

Taking into account the low base performance of the semi annual report in 2016, the weighted average earnings per share will increase further in 2017.

The formation of the newspaper performance in half a year has the basis of financial data.

In addition, data show that in June 2017, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, the highest point in the year. In June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.9%, higher than last month's 0.4 percentage points, rising for the two consecutive month, the highest point in the year.

The economic prosperity of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries has become stronger and stronger, forming a systemic positive effect.

The hot spot of the market is expected to be pferred from the accumulative heavyweight shares to the promising industry.

Affected by fiscal expenditure, the end of the month

Spend in a relaxed environment.

The interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai continues to be fully downwards.

The fiscal expenditure has put the underlying currency into the market, improving the liquidity level of the whole market.

Stock market funds will gradually improve, the paction is expected to gradually enlarge, laying the foundation for hot spots proliferation.

Whether investors can buy white horse stocks at present? How to choose stocks? It is difficult for A shares to show systemic opportunities or risks this year. Baima shares continue to outperform the market in a big probability event under the environment of performance certainty and risk preference.

Unlike the hype mode of theme and event driven, Baima shares are hard to get rid of the valuation center and fundamentals, and the uplink slope will be relatively gentle.

Behind the pformation of A share style is the pformation of macroeconomic factors such as liquidity expectation and economic structure, and its impact is relatively long. It is similar to the "Five Golden Flower" market in the A industry bear market in 2003 -2005, so it is still the core strategy to configure white horse stocks and excavate white horse stocks.

Stock selection, because liquor, white electricity and other consumer varieties are expected to play more full, this location on the car may not be the best choice.

And the white horse stocks with different performance have greater probability of exceeding expected performance, such as finance, new materials, medical treatment, and resource leading enterprises that can benefit from production capacity.

In the long run

From the point of view, investors can still configure white horse stocks. Even if the adjustment or shock is too high in the short term, it is difficult to change their long-term upward trend.

Stock selection, performance is the most important assessment index, leading is an important mainline, it is recommended to choose from all sectors of the leading performance in the selection of robust, valuations in a reasonable range of stock allocation.

If it is a white horse growth stock, it is even more necessary to consider whether its endogenous growth is stable or not.

At present, investors should catch up the opportunity of second tier blue chips, and the industry configuration can draw on the June economic data.

Chinese medicine manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing industry PMI are located in the higher economic range of more than 54%, the industry has strong driving force.

In terms of non manufacturing sector, business activities index of air pport, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting and television and satellite pmission services, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries are all above the high economic level of over 60%.

Excluding the cumulative increase in financial stocks, other industries still have larger room for inflation.

In particular, under the influence of "6.18" and other e-commerce promotion activities in the year, business activity index related to Internet consumption related to postal express and Internet and software information technology services were 72.2% and 61.8%, respectively, higher than last month's 7.5 and 3 percentage points, and the total business volume grew rapidly.

In addition, the construction industry has increased to a high level.

In addition, the NDRC has cut oil prices for the six time in a year.

The cost of pportation industry is expected to decline significantly.

In the first half of 2016, the industry boom of industrial raw materials and energy industries was at a low level, and the performance of related industries in 2017 was larger than that in half a year.

Recently, Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 hit a new high, while the Shanghai stock index was holding back before the 3200 point.

In this regard, market participants believe that differentiation will still be staged, market funds to the second tier blue chips proliferation market is still mainly based on Bo rebound, white horse stocks and line blue chips are still the main layout worthy of the current layout.

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