How Did "Five Poor, Six Absolutely, Seven Turn Over" In July Explain?

With the index continuing to narrow, the market in the first half of 2017 ended.

Although there had been a clear tone in the market in 4 and May, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded from 3000 points to 3200 points since June.

Looking forward to the market in July, private figures have different expectations for "five poor, six, seven turn over" in July.

Overnight, the surrounding market plummeted. In the past, A shares were scared down, but not this time, the market seemed very tenacious.

It's nice to have a main side.

The new stock market has become the biggest bright spot on Friday. The competition of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries has also guaranteed the red hot of the index. The eight stocks can no longer always stare at two faces. At least, the disk is out of a rare harmony.

A year of great sigh and a sober half year ended in June.

I do not know, at this time, are you complacent about the coming July?

In July, I gave such a judgement that a rare rebound will gradually come to an end in July, so watch out for another phase of the market.

Or, it will usher in a phased adjustment process.

Of course, at this time will not start adjusting immediately, I have talked many times before, because 3200 points have not touched the front line, here is not enough to trigger the absolute interest in following the wind.

Once the process is completed later, there will be more follow ups, and the number of people who hope for 3300 points will increase.

I have reminded many times that the main line in the Shanghai stock index line is located near the 3240 point, where the pressure is very great. If the current amount can be pushed upward, the market will be exhausted after entering the 3200 point.

In fact, the central bank's action should be more concerned, in June.

In fact, it is running water.

In June, the money in the market in the past years was very intense. The central bank released water was to hedge the shortage of funds in June and prevent the shortage of money.

From the actual situation, it should be said that the effect is very good and can be passed smoothly.

It should be said that although the market leverage has been knocked out, some small and medium financial institutions still have certain expectations for easing the central bank's monetary policy. There is still a chance to continue leverage with the opportunity of market adjustment. Deleveraging is not yet in place. The long-term trend of monetary policy keynote should remain robust and neutral.

So, in July, we will see that the central bank will release the action again, at least not as pleasing as June.

Once the policy becomes tighter, it may be another reaction in the stock market.

Several big indexes are the same problem. I suggest that we pay more attention to the Shenzhen composite index, because it exclude many heavy weights, so it can reflect the market situation more truly.

In the June 9th, you can see that a lot of small and medium-sized stocks are gradually rebounding from this time node.

Then the trend has been slowly promoted, and has now been on the main line.

Next, not far away, it will also face more important pressure areas, from the main line to the main line, and then to the shin line, which are basically concentrated in the 1930-1970 point area.

If we can only advance at this point, as long as we enter this area, we will encounter strong resistance, and the possibility of further downfall is enormous.

From the point of view of operation, we should pay attention to the concept of overfall, because this market is very obvious after the overhang, so there are still opportunities for such varieties.

This week, the market trend frequently hit 3200 points and the first line, there was a drop in the market, and then there was the rise of large cap stocks, such as coal, banks, steel and so on played a role like this; and after high inflation, it failed to inspire popularity, the amount could shrink, and diving again, so that a clear trend was observed from the 60 points line.

Yu believes that the core of the current market is rooted in whether it can bring stylistic switching. The market can only push the index, but it can not bring about the money making effect.

It is meaningless; whenever large cap stocks are adjusted, the amount of energy will return to small and medium sized enterprises, so that small and medium enterprises will be strong enough to bring about the general inflation of stocks, thus forming the effect of making money. Once the large cap stocks are active and the funds are insufficient, the money making effect will become worse.

Now in such a cycle, next week's market should have a direction of choice.

Will soon usher in the July market, "seven turns" is frequently mentioned by the market? Is it true? From historical data, it dropped 14 times in July, and the total monthly mean in 26 years is -1.31%, ranking the last in 12 months. Obviously, there are some factors in it are mistaken.

In fact, the real feature of July is the month of balance, small rise and small drop, and hot spots tend to undergo a more obvious pformation.

As a result of the mid day factor, the three quarter market is prone to hot spot pformation, which is similar to that of the Hengda department's stock market in 2016. The market entered the hype market which was completely different from the first half of the year. In 2015, it entered the stock market crash from the three quarter. In 2014, it entered the key bottoming cycle, forming a style switch before the capital leverage market, so this factor is the core of the July market.

Shouting supervision is the core of the stock market's fall in 4-5 months. In the first ten months of July, stocks rose, small and medium-sized rebounded, and small and medium sized boards even hit a new high in the year. They were gradually concerned by funds. With the performance factor of the China Daily report, the large share stocks had already shown the bubble factor. The small and medium sized growth stocks with the same valuation showed more opportunities. Therefore, in the stage of hot pition in July, investors should make clear their research direction.

One of the prerequisites is that the liquidity in the capital market should not be too tight.

Recently, a AA level development interest rate has risen to more than 7%, while the interest rate of a credit bond has exceeded 9%.

Overnight lending rates in the interbank bond market continue to exceed the one-year benchmark lending rate of banks.

This shows that the current capital structure is very tight, and the capital side is not supported.

There is a continuous market.

In the near future, no matter 28 or 82, two cities continue to maintain the volume of land, still in the state of the game of stock funds, liquidity will be very difficult to improve. From this perspective, investors can not only see the new high and high volatility of the index, but also pay attention to the effect of money making and subsequent changes in the market.

China's paper market posted a steady rise in interest rates this week, but there was little market turnover at the end of the month.

Traders said that the majority of the institutions close to the end of the month were already full, so the demand for tickets decreased, which was slightly higher than the demand, but the price of paper tickets remained stable.

The Shanghai Composite Index of China's stock market rose more than two months after the week's concussion.

Driven by futures prices, the cyclical stocks represented by coal are all stronger. However, the blue chips, such as banks and real estate, which have been driving the index all the way up, will be faced with greater pressure of profit taking as a result of a larger cumulative increase in this round.

This week, the central bank suspended the reverse repurchase, indicating that the central bank has recovered slightly liquidity at the end of the month, but the market has not changed much as a whole.

Our A share market has experienced a decline in 4 and May. After the baptism, the overall valuation of the market (mainly small and medium sized businesses) has declined.

Even some stocks began to appear "bubble", such as some "divine liquor", "magic medicine", "God household appliances" and so on. Therefore, when a plate or concept is widely praised and promoted by the mass media, we should learn to go backward instead of "herding" to catch up with the "plate man".

Some time ago, the so-called "MSCI" concept stock was the situation, and the securities companies and the media were hyped up in the "herd effect".

Judging from the market trend in June, the market rebound is earlier than we expected, so the market will have a concussion in July. However, the stock market proverb "five poor, six must seven turn over" is still very reasonable, and we do not expect the market to turn over immediately in July. After all, the market rebounded in June, and the possibility of inflation in July is not high. However, if we look forward to the market, especially if the small and medium sized market that has been adjusted for 2 years has turned over in the second half of the year, the probability is still very high.

Therefore, we need to prepare "bullets" and stock pools now. Recently, the market began to have capital inflow, and some good stocks with obvious signs of repeated shocks at the bottom of the market need us to continue to follow the observation and analysis in the future market. Once the big market opportunities appear, then we will continue to invest in the "force" market.

And we now hold the stock, the best half warehouse operation, at the same time repeatedly make the difference, the low share holding costs.

Now it seems that the investment style in the first half of the market should be biased towards white horse blue chips and weight blue chips, such as Guizhou, Moutai, Wuliangye, Heng Rui medicine, Huadong medicine, GREE electric appliances, the United States group and other stocks, as well as four major lines and insurance stocks and sub bank shares. But in the second half of this year, the probability that these stocks will increase substantially will be small. After all, they have risen in the first half of the year.

After the operation of China's stock market in the first half of 2017, the investment pattern has entered the "white horse era". IPO's speeding issue not only dilutes the value of shell resources, but also reduces the heat of a number of asset regrouping stocks, and the theme of ST shares and performance shares are discolored. At the same time, a group of blue chip white horse stocks become a scarce variety and become a leading variety.

In the first half of this year, 50 of the beautiful stocks such as Guizhou, Moutai, Wuliangye, Yunnan Baiyao, Dong'e donkey hide gelatin, GREE electric appliances, Gome and so on, eat wine, drink drugs and create a new high consumption. This is the beginning of the white horse era.

The inclusion of MSCI will further boost the value investment philosophy of overseas institutions. This momentum will continue in the second half of the year, and the gem needs a return of value. However, enterprises with real growth, strong industry boom and high technology content will stand out.

Therefore, in the second half of the year, we hope that the market investment style should be based on the theme stocks of small and medium sized market and some small and medium sized stock investments. Of course, some undervalued blue chips still have the opportunity to excavate, but we suggest that the focus of investment in the second half of this year is on small cap stocks.

Of course, in this market, after all, everyone's investment style is different. There is a tendency to invest in sound value. There is a tendency to make radical speculation. No matter how, it can make money. Therefore, we also suggest that you find the most suitable investment methods and profit models in the market.

At present, the market's mid market performance has been on the rise, and we have also observed some stocks in the market gradually rising this week. Therefore, according to this hype, we will try to find some related stocks at the weekend, such as the pharmaceutical and technology stocks of some non-performing assets, such as the Tin shares, the health of the Tang Dynasty, and the news of the company.

Of course, for your investment stocks, you need to go deep into your own analysis.

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