Buyers Are In A "Vacation" State, Cotton Continues To Be Weak.

According to the cotton monitoring database in Shihezi, Kuitun, Akesu, Korla and other places, the shipment volume of cotton highway and railway has declined since July, and the number of foreign and mainland traders has been reduced.

Because of the relatively few vehicles returning from the border and entering the Xinjiang, and the price of oil has not been further reduced, the pportation cost of the highways has not fluctuated very much. From Akesu to Zhengzhou, Akesu to Jiangsu Nantong or Yancheng, the pportation cost is about 680-700 yuan / ton, 750-780 yuan / ton (including tax tickets, not return vehicles).

The reasons for the continuous reduction of cotton output are: first, at the end of June, the amount of cotton stored in the supervision cotton store in the territory has dropped to 30-40 tons, plus the high quality raw materials in the centralized replenishment of Xinjiang textile enterprises, so that Xinjiang cotton can be moved to the elbow. "Two" since the middle of June, traders have "gone to stock" more vigorously, and the operation of "flat air and single sale" is very common. Hedging makes arbitrage. Three is the off-season demand for cotton and civilian cotton in 6-8 months, and buyers in Sichuan, Chongqing, Henan, Zhejiang and Hubei are in a "vacation" state, and demand is half stagnant.

Into July, within borders

After entering the repair equipment, investigating the surrounding cotton resources, making purchase plans and applying for loan qualification, the mainland cotton enterprises with the package factory plan and the leasing processing line mostly entered the final investigation and consultation stage.

The lease price of hand picked cotton gin plant in southern Xinjiang is basically the same as that of the previous year, with a relatively good location, relatively abundant peripheral resources, and a cotton processing enterprise that can provide loans to the Agricultural Development Bank, credit cooperatives or other commercial banks. Most of the contract fees are 80-120 yuan (two or more processing lines or about 1 million 500 thousand yuan).

Cotton acquisition processing enterprises to 2017/18 annual cotton market is judged "high and low", a little careless cotton enterprises have become high seed cotton, high cost "plate man", whether the solution to May 2018 after the policy.

In 2017, the cotton growing area in the northern hemisphere increased significantly (the US increased by 14%, and the growth in India was even more impressive). In the case of the continued expansion of domestic and foreign cotton prices and the sharp decline in export competitiveness of cotton yarn cotton mills, the import quota policy of cotton in 2018 is facing great adjustment pressure.

From policy orientation, market consumption,

On the increase, cotton demand in China is weak in the past 2017-2019 years.

During the ICE period, cotton prices rose sharply.

At home, with the turn of the reserve cotton, the pressure of throwing and storing is larger, but the spot price is still rising at the price. This reflects the shortage of high-quality cotton resources, leading to the supply structure. In general, the demand for high-quality cotton sources, and the small amount of cotton in Xinjiang, there is a cost support for cotton below.

The underlying trend is strong.

Technically, Zheng cotton K-line is in the middle of the brin track. MACD's fast and slow moving average leads to the slow development of the golden fork, and the radical's short term and long term contract can be more light.

Operation, the upper test of 15380 yuan / ton near the pressure, within 15000-15380 days recommended interval pactions.

Domestic cotton demand will remain relatively stable in the year, and the turnover rate of cotton reserves will be improved. The new year's global cotton production is expected to continue to strengthen, and the supply from outside China will be relatively loose. Cotton prices will be strong and weak, and the pattern will continue to be strong and weak. The main cotton producing countries in the northern hemisphere have entered the period of severe convective weather. The weather changes must be closely watched; the global economy is showing signs of improvement and uncertainties remain; the new tax system will help accelerate the development of India's textile industry, and the global cotton supply and demand situation or variables in the new year.

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