PTA Futures Finally Came To The End Of The Day.

This week, PTA futures ushered in a strong upward trend, the main 1709 contract continued to break 5000, 5100, 5200, 5300 yuan / ton four integer pass.

Analysts said that low inventory, better performance of polyester links, concentrated outbreak of device problems, and capital market entry were all giving PTA price rebounding power.

Against this background, the short-term price is expected to continue to rebound inertia, but in the medium to long term, the price rise is limited or limited.

Huang Liqiang said that due to the decline in the operating rate of PTA enterprises, the demand for downstream polyester was good, resulting in a low inventory of PTA and a sharp decline in warehouse receipts.

At the same time, Hengli petrochemical, which was stopped at the end of June, delayed the restart, resulting in a shortage of market supply and aggravated the market's worries.

In addition, crude oil prices continued to rebound, the futures discount spot and the promotion of funds prompted the PTA futures to rebound strongly this week.

Specifically, in terms of inventory, the PTA futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange totaled about 160 thousand, representing a drop of nearly 100 thousand from the year's high point, or about 500 thousand tons of PTA spot.

Zhuo Chuang estimates that the current PTA spot stock is about 1 million 200 thousand tons, at a low level.

"PTA enterprise inventory is low, downstream filament and staple inventory is at an extremely low level.

The market as a whole is in short supply stage.

Huang Liqiang said.

Since April of this year, domestic PTA installations have been overhauled and repaired in the domestic market.

The operating rate of the plant is below 70%.

At present, the start-up load of PTA is 64.43%, which is at a low level, and the start-up load of polyester is 85.38%, at a normal level.

"Polyester industry inventory is at a low level, leading to panic in the lower reaches of the stock market, resulting in an increase in stocking and a boost to the PTA price rebound."

Pang Chunyan, an analyst of China investment and Anshun futures, said.

On the spot side, according to Pang Chunyan, due to tight spot, PTA spot prices continued to rise, CCFEI spot price rose from 4700 yuan / ton line at the end of June to 5200 yuan / ton, which rose significantly this week.

The trading atmosphere in the spot market is still available, the price of futures is narrowed, and even the situation of spot rising.

In the short term, the tight situation in the spot market is expected to continue.

It is indicated that the low inventory in the PTA market may lead to a certain price increase. At present, the polyester industry performs better, and it can also support the moderate rise of PTA price.

But in the long run, as an overcapacity industry, the price of PTA is also not optimistic.

In addition, the downstream polyester sales are hot, but it does not mean that the terminal consumption is excellent.

Therefore, the short-term PTA price rebound is expected to continue, but with the return of the market calm, outflow of funds, the pace of price rebound will gradually slow down.

Huang Liqiang also believes that due to the recent PTA overall market climate is better, the market sees more enthusiasm, so do not rule out the PTA price will rise inertia.

But in the long run, first of all, the overall profit level of PTA enterprises is at a very low level. When the cost has not changed significantly, the time and space of PTA price rise are limited.

For this round of rise, the external cause is the enterprise.

The delayed supply of phased supply is insufficient, and the internal reason is the undervalued value due to the rising cost and the current price difference.

But these are short-term factors. The problem of overcapacity in the PTA industry has not been changed. Therefore, in the long run, PTA prices will remain near the cost line so as to achieve capacity clearing.

In addition, from the cost point of view, although the price of crude oil has stabilized and stabilized, the problem of oversupply of crude oil has not changed, so the cost side is difficult to rise sharply.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.