PTA Futures Rose Sharply, And Continued To Produce Good Results.

Since the middle of June, there have been more maintenance and unexpected parking in domestic PTA installations, such as BP, Hon Bang petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and Peng Wei petrochemical.

These overhaul capacity reached a peak in early July, and about 6 million 600 thousand to 7 million 600 thousand tons of equipment were in shutdown inspection, accounting for 18% to 20% of the actual effective production capacity of PTA.

Short term PTA supply pressure eased.

In terms of demand,

Maintaining a high level of start-up support for PTA consumption.

CCFEI data show that last week Zhou Pingjun load of PET plant increased 0.5% to 85.2% (polymer production capacity of 48 million 410 thousand tons).

From the two quarter, the polyester start up rate is better than the same period last year, especially in the late June and early July, a slight increase has been achieved, while the polyester operating rate in 2016 has been slightly weaker.

In addition, polyester stocks began to decline in May, the stock of last week's filament varieties was POY9 days, DTY20.5 days, FDY8.5 days, all lower than last year's inventory level.

As of last Friday, PTA's stock in circulation was 1 million 66 thousand tons, 1 million 800 thousand tons a year ago.

In terms of futures inventories, the total amount of warehouse receipts is about 770 thousand tons, minus about 337 thousand tons of warehouse receipts, and PTA futures stock is about 434 thousand tons.

The total volume of future stock plus inventory is about 1 million 500 thousand tons, lower than that of PTA in the same period last year.

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Therefore, since the two quarter, the effect of PTA inventory has been very obvious.

In particular, the hype of Hengli petrochemical plant's overhaul has provided a force for PTA price uplink.

Hengli petrochemical 3#220 million tons of equipment due to refining the first crystallizer equipment failure, in June 23rd, ahead of the overhaul, the original plan to stop for about 12 days, but because the device failed to recover in the expected time, PTA prices rose sharply.

Although Hengli Petrochemical announced that the production of extended maintenance losses accounted for only about 2.2% of its annual output, but the market speculation has not ended, the short term continuation of a strong pattern.

At present, PTA production and processing fees are still high.

Enter the restart cycle.

In July 14th, the Asian PX valuation in China was 799.33 US dollars / ton CFR China, closing down 0.67 US dollars / ton compared with the 13 day, converting the PTA production cost about 4300 yuan / ton, the disk profit at 1089 yuan / ton high level, later, we should be alert to the rise of the selling pressure of the futures market.

In addition, this week, the Hon Bang petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan plant plans to restart, involving 2 million 900 thousand tons of capacity. If the restart is successful, the favorable supply will be weakened.

In the medium to long term analysis, the reboot of PTA's old device is still a rather partial factor. In the four quarter, the main concern is the Xiang Lu petrochemical plant.

To sum up, in the short term, the constant force events and the tight speculation in the spot are not yet dispersed, coupled with the continuation of the PTA phase of supply and demand, and the short-term PTA price trend is optimistic.

However, with the restart of the maintenance device, the PTA price will have a greater upward pressure in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan / ton.

Today, futures are going down. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, half light chips are buying flat gas. The downstream needs replenishment only. Small single pactions within a few hundred tons, the center of gravity is weakened to 7450 yuan / ton (cash) or slightly lower, high turnover is relatively difficult.

Shandong Changyi pure polyester yarn price is stable, the original white quality excellent 32S offer 13000-15500 yuan / ton short delivery, pure black 32S quoted price 12500 yuan / ton short delivery, paction volume is not much.

The trend of raw materials is weak, polyester staple fiber is mainly on the waiting list, as the downstream replenishment mood is low, and the raw material trend is down, later polyester staple fiber or weak finishing possibility.

Later, we should pay attention to changes in oil prices, after PX price trend, and downstream yarn manufacturers orders.

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