PTA Futures Slightly Weak, Downstream Textile Industry Obvious Signs Of Recovery

According to the latest business climate index released by the National Bureau of statistics, the textile industry boom index reached 120.90 in the 2 quarter, the highest in the 2 quarter since 2010.

As of 1-6 months, textile owners' income and net profit accumulated 9.4% and 5.1% respectively, and domestic textile (cloth) output reached 34 billion 600 million meters, an increase of 4.5% over the same period last year.

The textile industry began to decline for a long time from 2013, and the overall recovery in the first half of 2017 was clear.

Demand has improved and exports have increased. The overall profitability of the chemical fiber industry has improved significantly.

Most of the first half of this year

The price of spandex products increased by more than 10% compared with last year. The average price of polyester filament and staple fiber increased by 23.77% and 19.01% respectively in the first half of last year.

Driven by the recovery of downstream demand, the total output of main chemical fiber products increased by 10.71% over the first half of the year, and exports increased by 8.94% over the same period last year. The overall operating rate of the industry continued to be high, and supply and demand had been balanced.

The National Bureau of statistics released the latest 1-6 month chemical fiber industry operating income and net profit respectively 15.1% and 53.1% compared with the same period, with the continuous improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry, the overall profitability of the industry is expected to continue to improve.

Optimistic about polyester and viscose continued prosperity.

The export volume of polyester has been rising steadily from the year on year in February 2016, with the steady increase in the downstream demand, the capacity supply is still in a continuous contraction stage. After many polyester devices entered the maintenance state in May, the industry capacity load rate is limited, resulting in the tension between the supply and demand of polyester fiber, the continued decline of the stock in July, and the rising price of PTA and PX in the raw material end, we expect that the future polyester price will continue to rise, and the industry profit situation is still expected to continue to improve.

Before 2018, the expansion of viscose industry capacity was limited and downstream.

In the case of improvement, the viscose industry is still expected to maintain a long period of prosperity.

Viscose recommendation focuses on Sanyou chemical, the company currently has 500 thousand tons of viscose staple fiber production capacity, domestic first, and the construction of 200 thousand tons of functional, differentiated viscose staple fiber project will be put into operation in the 1 quarter of next year.

Short staple demand is still in the doldrums, prices continue to decline, Shandong area

Down to 4500 yuan / ton, Xinjiang is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

The order of domestic dissolving pulp has been concluded after centralized signing, 7100-7200 yuan / ton of broadleaf pulp and 7300-7400 yuan / ton of needle pulp.

Some of the new quotations are expected to rise again, and the new quotation for sun pulp dissolving pulp is raised by 300 yuan / ton to 7500 yuan / ton.

The quotation for dissolving pulp has been gradually expanded, and the mainstream price of broadleaf dissolving pulp is quoted at 840-860 US dollars / ton.

The higher price of needle dissolving pulp is US $980 / ton.

Viscose factories are mostly homeopathic shipping, and the orders of high-end manufacturers are still stable.

The high-end execution is maintained at 16100-16200 yuan / ton, the middle end is 15800-16000 yuan / ton, and some traders are shipping 15500-15700 yuan / ton lower.

Viscose filament prices continue weak finishing, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still not high, 120D first gear 40500-41000 yuan / ton, second gear 37500-38500 yuan / ton, third gear 36000-36500 yuan / ton.

The cotton yarn order is generally flat, and the shipping resistance is large. Siro spinning 40S cotton yarn cash negotiation at the level of 21800-22000 yuan / ton, some 22000-22500 yuan / ton quotation is difficult to have real single deal.

The overall price of viscose is temporarily stable, and some manufacturers have more pre orders, which can be extended to the end of 8.

PTA futures are slightly weaker in recent years, while MEG is highly collate. In the short term, the cost side support of Dacron staple fibers is still strong, making the Dacron staple fiber fall relatively limited, and the downstream cotton mills and traders have slightly improved their enquiry intention.

Later, we should pay attention to changes in oil prices, after PX price trend, and downstream yarn manufacturers orders.

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