Market Prospect: The Probability Of High Cotton Yield In Xinjiang Increases

Recently, cotton farmers in Aksu, Kashgar and Korla regions introduced that cotton is growing well and expected to have a high yield. At present, the local cotton plants are luxuriant with thick stems and peaches. An Aksu cotton farmer introduced that the recent weather is favorable, and cotton is sitting on peaches. The bottom peaches are large and plump, and some have turned red. It is expected that the middle of this month can be used to open bolls. Most cotton farmers are optimistic about this year's output. On the same day, a cotton farmer said that this year's per unit yield of seed cotton may be in the 400 kg line. If the weather is still strong in the later period, the per unit yield of 450 kg/mu will not be a problem.

In August, most of the local ginning plants in Xinjiang have completed machine maintenance, loan application and other preparations. As a ginning factory owner said, everything is ready for the cotton market. However, many enterprises from the mainland who come to Xinjiang to contract factories are slightly slower. Some enterprise contracts have been signed, but the site inspection, machine maintenance and purchase of other auxiliary equipment have not been completed. It is expected that these works will be completed by the end of this month; Many other enterprises have reported that the bank loan limit has been reduced, and the outsourcing enterprises from other places are not familiar with the place, so they are at a certain disadvantage in terms of financing loans. However, most enterprises believe that the problem of Kaiweihe acquisition in September is not serious. However, after paying the rent of 1.8-2 million yuan/year, some mainland contracting enterprises are worried about whether they can make a profit this year.

On the spot market, the spot price of "Double 28" hand picked cotton in Aksu, Kashgar and other places is 15700-15800 yuan/ton, and the price of 3128 grade hand picked cotton is 15600 yuan/ton; The price of long staple cotton is relatively stable. The sales quotation of 137 and 237 long staple cotton of a factory in Aksu is 21700 yuan/ton and 20800 yuan/ton. According to the enterprise, there are few inquiries and goods recently, and the enterprise is under great pressure to destock, but considering the cost factor, it is unwilling to sell at a low price. This year, the probability of high cotton yield in Xinjiang has increased. Due to serious aphids and insect pests in some areas, cotton farmers have increased their management costs. They expect the opening price to be more than 7 yuan/kg. Cotton enterprises are more cautious. There is a lot of reserve cotton in the spot market, but the quality of reserve cotton is obviously different from Xinjiang cotton in the hands of enterprises. Enterprises are still sticking to the price.

August is a critical period for weather, cotton growth and field management. The continuous high temperature in northern Xinjiang has had an impact on the peach trees. The overall growth of cotton in Xinjiang is relatively good, especially in Aksu, Kashi and Korla, the three major cotton producing areas in southern Xinjiang, which can be described as "promising harvest". Unlike the exultation and prosperity of large growers and farmers, cotton processing enterprises and ginning plants are generally not optimistic - contracting fees and rental prices of ginning plants have increased to varying degrees, and only by expanding the purchase volume can the cost be reduced. The good quality of cotton this year will inevitably lead to panic buying by cotton enterprises and textile mills. It is not ruled out that "flour is more expensive than bread". However, farmers' expectations on the selling price of seed cotton are relatively high. It is expected that the opening price will not be lower than 7.50 yuan/kg. The stalemate and clinging of buyers and sellers will hurt people's health.

the near future Pure cotton yarn The sales declined slightly, and the transaction was average. Most merchants mainly inquired about prices. On the one hand, it is off-season, on the other hand, high temperature, cost and other factors lead to shrinking demand. The trading atmosphere of pure polyester yarn was general, the price declined slightly, the trading volume of T45S was good, and the transactions of other specifications were relatively stable. The price of rayon yarn is stable, and the trading volume is larger than R30S. The turnover of polyester cotton yarn is average. The trading volume of polyester viscose yarn 40S/2 is slightly better, and the price is basically stable.

Due to poor delivery of goods, some yarn mills partially lowered their prices. A factory in Shandong OEC21S quoted 17300 yuan/ton cash, which was actually negotiated as a discount. The overall delivery of rotor spinning was slightly better than others. Current part Yarn mill We are studying the minimum cotton blending that meets the delivery index of cotton yarn futures of Zheng Merchants Institute. The price of Renmian yarn is roughly stable. The price of Xiaoshan ring spinning 30S is 20000-20200 yuan/ton. Most of the yarn mills ship according to the trend, and the order is general. Due to the decline of the center of gravity of polyester staple fiber, the price of Shengze pure polyester yarn was slightly adjusted. 32S quoted 12100 yuan/ton, 45S quoted 13200 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was average. Polyester staple fiber market is dim recently, Shandong Changyi Pure polyester yarn was partially lowered, the original white quality optimization 32S was quoted 13000-15200 yuan/ton for short delivery, and the pure black 32S was quoted 12500 yuan/ton for short delivery.

In July, grey fabric enterprises stopped production and had more holidays, and the demand was weakened. The yarn market generally continued the slack season characteristics, and orders declined. Especially for cotton yarn enterprises, according to many manufacturers of conventional yarn and high count yarn, orders were scarce this week, and everyone scrambled for orders, even competing to lower the offer to gain the right to continue production. The price was generally weak, with obvious decline in some regions. As of August 4, the domestic market price of 21S cotton yarn was 23637 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the beginning of July. It is expected that the increase in Xinjiang's cotton rotation output will help ease the current contradiction in the quality structure of cotton supply and improve the tight supply of high-quality cotton in China. Downstream yarn is weak, cotton yarn has a significant decline, and there are few orders from all regions; Polyester line stagnates in the whole line and falls in some areas. There are rumors in the market that the substitution competition is too fierce and the cotton yarn price is falling back. It is expected that the lint will remain stable and weak in August, and the price will run between 15700-15800 yuan/ton.

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