[Authoritative Release] China Keqiao Fashion Index 2018 First Quarter Analysis Report

China Light Textile City is located in Shaoxing, Zhejiang. Since its establishment, the market has expanded to 3 million 900 thousand square meters, and there are more than 2.6 business rooms and more than 4 kinds of business. There are more than 4 kinds of business, more than 2.9 households, and nearly 5500 buyers in the country.

Textile industry and specialized market are the traditional advantageous industries in Keqiao District of Shaoxing. 1/4 of the fabrics are sold here every year, and the production and sales relationship with nearly half of the textile enterprises in the whole country has been firmly occupied in the leading position of the domestic industry.

In October 15, 2016, the fashion week of Keqiao was officially opened in 2016 with the theme of "new fashion and new heights".

At the launching ceremony of the fashion week, under the joint guidance of the people's Government of Keqiao District of Shaoxing, under the joint guidance of the China Textile Industry Federation and the China Light Textile City Construction Management Committee of Keqiao District, Shaoxing, the "China Keqiao Keqiao index" was completed by the Hangzhou bright Polytron Technologies Inc. The Keqiao fashion textile industry has entered a new stage.

As the first textile fashion index in China, "China Keqiao fashion index" reflects comprehensively the achievements of the development of China Textile City from the perspective of input, output and production and sales structure of fashion industry, and sets up weathervane and barometer for textile industry in the field of fashion.

At present, the Keqiao index has covered every link of textile R & D, production, marketing, sales and promotion, and established a three-dimensional, multi-dimensional and comprehensive index system to map the development of textile and textile industry in the whole country and even the whole world.

"China Keqiao fashion index" is a soft index. Besides fashion elements, it also covers many factors such as research and development, brand and so on. It integrates cultural and creative, technological innovation, Internet big data and other aspects. It has great prospects for development. It is very important for China Textile City to be a trading center or to become a Chinese fashion Branch Center.

The textile industry is the foundation of the fashion industry chain. At present, the textile industry in Keqiao is in the critical stage of pformation and upgrading. The release of Keqiao fashion index has made Keqiao's fashionable atmosphere more and more popular, and its fashion pattern has become clearer. Keqiao's local enterprises and industrial gathering areas with fashionable guidance ability have sprung up continuously and driven the development of the city's economy and fashion industry. Keqiao's position in the fashion industry and the right to speak of the industry are rising.

"China Keqiao fashion index" (hereinafter referred to as "Keqiao fashion index") follows the modern statistical index scientific principle, index compilation method and comprehensive evaluation theory. Combined with the current development of Keqiao fashion textile industry, based on the reasonable selection of relevant indexes of Keqiao fashion index, the comprehensive index is designed and compiled after scientifically determining the weight of categories.

Keqiao

The index includes four modules, namely the fashion creativity index, the fashion activity index, the fashion promotion index and the fashion evaluation index (the weight of each module index is shown in Figure 1). It takes the fourth quarter of 2015 as the index base, updates the index value every quarter, and studies and releases the analysis report according to the performance of all levels of indicators.

The 2018 quarterly analysis report is the ninth phase of the series report.

In the first quarter of 2018, Keqiao's fashion index fell by 129.13 points, down by 13.26% compared with the first quarter of 2017. However, after excluding seasonal factors, Keqiao's fashion index rose 12.05% in the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2017.

This shows that, in general, the development of Keqiao's fashion textile industry is still good.

Figure 2 trend of China Keqiao fashion index

(1) the fashion creativity index is growing against the trend.

The index of fashion creativity is gained through the comprehensive weighting of the number of new flower types, the number of fashion designers, the number of creative products and the number of creative industries, so that people can objectively and intuitively understand the current situation of the development of creative enterprises in Keqiao fashion textile industry.

Weights between four subdivision indices

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Figure 3 weight ratio of fashion creativity index

In the first quarter of 2018, the Keqiao fashion creativity index broke through the curse of the first quarter's cyclical decline, rising against the trend and closing at 136.89 points, a slight increase of about 0.61% compared with the previous quarter.

Compared with the first quarter of 2017, it rose 21.83 percentage points, or 18.98%.

This shows that creative enterprises in Keqiao's fashion textile industry are booming and in good shape.

Figure 4 trend of fashion creativity index

01 the number of new flower models is increasing again.

In the first quarter of 2018, the "new flower launch index" index hit a new high at 174.91 points, up 13.49% from the previous quarter, compared with the first quarter of 2017, up 47.31 percentage points, or 37.08%.

This shows that the enthusiasm of research and development of creative enterprises is constantly being stimulated, and the vitality of creative enterprises in Keqiao fashion textile industry is still decreasing.

At the same time, the contribution rate of the "new flower launch index" to the total index of fashion creativity is also up to 60.92%, which is the main factor driving the overall index to go up.

Figure 5 trend index of new flower launch

Figure 6 trend index of fashion designers

The number of fashion talents continued to maintain a good momentum at the beginning of this year.

In the first quarter of 2018, the number of fashion talents increased by 119.59 points, up 2.33 percentage points.

Compared with the same period in 2017, the number of new fashion designers in Keqiao district was 229, and the number of fashion talents increased by 5.69% over the same period last year.

This shows that the employment atmosphere of Keqiao's fashion textile industry is good, and it can attract fashion talents continuously.

03, creative products trading index to rebound

In the first quarter of 2018, the "creative products deal" index ended a 4 consecutive decline, with a slight increase of 2.16 percentage points, closing at 106.03 points, rising 2.07%.

This indicates that the cyclical adjustment of creative product sales may soon be over, and the "cold winter" will soon be over. "Spring" is coming.

However, compared with the first quarter of 2017, the "creative products deal" index still fell by about 8.55% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the creative product market is still at a low temperature.

Figure 7 trend index of creative product turnover

04, the number of creative enterprises index high callback

In the first quarter of 2018, the number of creative enterprises fell to 130.96 points, down by 13.82%. However, compared with historical data, the number of creative enterprises is still running at a high level, which is about 26.15% higher than that in the first quarter of 2017.

Details, as the number of creative enterprises in Keqiao district continues to increase, the number of enterprises entering the creative garden continues to rise, rising to 161.91 points, an increase of 11.98 percentage points, an increase of 34.56% over the same period last year, while the speed of newly introduced enterprises has slowed down compared with the previous quarter, making the "introduction of creative garden enterprises" classification index dropped to 100 points, a 35.05% drop in the chain, which is the main reason for the decline of the number of "creative enterprises" index.

However, compared with the same period last year, the "introduction of creative park enterprises" classification index still increased 12.70 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the overall introduction of creative enterprises is still good.

Figure 8 trend index of creative enterprises

(two) fashion activity index rose significantly compared with the same period last year.

Fashion activity is the basis for maintaining the vitality and creativity of a region. The fashion activity index focuses on the market performance of the brand. From the five dimensions of the sales volume of new products, the number of fashion platforms, the cost of brand communication, the number of electricity suppliers and the proportion of business cooperation, it reflects the creative ability and creative thinking of Keqiao textile fashion industry in the establishment of enterprise brand and innovative operation mode.

The weights between the five subdivision indices are shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10 fashion activity index category weight weight ratio

In the first quarter of 2018, the Keqiao fashion activity index was affected by seasonal factors, which closed at 128.63 points, down 19.27% from the ring. However, compared with the same period last year, the Keqiao fashion activity index still rose 20.17 percentage points, or 18.60%, and the rally was significant.

This shows that after excluding seasonal factors, the activity of Keqiao textile fashion industry is steadily rising, and the market vitality of fashion enterprises is constantly being stimulated.

Chart 11 fashion activity index trend

01, new product sales accounted for fluctuating rise

The "new product sales share" index shows the innovation and R & D intensity of Keqiao textile products, and is a key indicator to reflect the fashion activity in Keqiao.

In the first quarter of 2018, the "new product sales share" index rose to 115.20 points, up 6.07%, up 14.70 percentage points from the same period last year.

According to the fitting results of the existing index data, the "new product sales volume ratio" index is experiencing a strong rising stage after experiencing a wave peak and a trough.

This shows that with the increasing development of fashion textile industry in Keqiao, the fashionable new products developed are becoming more and more popular in the market.

Figure 12 changes in sales volume index of new products and their trend

02, fashion platform expansion index steady trend

The number of fashion talents continued to maintain a good momentum at the beginning of this year.

In the first quarter of 2018, the number of "fashion talents" index increased by 119.59 points, and the ring rose by 2.33 percentage points.

Compared with the same period in 2017, the number of new fashion designers in Keqiao was 229, and the number of "fashion talents" rose by 5.69% over the same period.

This shows that the Keqiao fashion textile industry has a good employment atmosphere and can continuously attract fashionable talents to join.

Figure 13 trend index of fashion platform expansion

03, brand communication cost index regression average

Brand communication is the main way for enterprises to become famous and shape brand value.

The brand communication cost index is used to reflect the strength of enterprises' brand creation. It is an integral part of the Keqiao fashion activity index.

In the first quarter of 2018, the "brand communication cost" index dropped to 124.46 points, down 18%, up 16.21 percentage points from the same period last year, which is similar to the historical average of 126.41 points.

Because there were no large-scale exhibitions or related activities in the first quarter, the brand publicity expenses of enterprises had returned to normal level in the first quarter.

04, electricity supplier operation index cycle down adjustment

The trend of the "electricity supplier running number" index presents obvious cyclical characteristics: the first quarter of each year is the beginning of the new cycle; the fourth quarter is the end of a cycle; in each cycle, the trend is low and high.

The first quarter to fourth quarter of 2016 is the first cycle of index operation, with the index developing from 100.66 points to 214.68 points, or up to 113.27%. The first quarter of 2017 is the beginning of the second cycle, so the index first fell to 122.53 points, and the ring ratio decreased by 42.93%. Then, in the four quarter of 2017, when the cycle ended, it rose sharply to 319.10 points, or 160.43%.

In the first quarter of 2018, the index entered a new round of cycle, so the "electricity supplier running number" index has been callback, closing at 190.04 points, a decrease of 40.44%.

Compared with the previous two years, the cyclical starting point of the index is higher this year (up 55.10% over the same period last year), which will further push up the index value.

According to historical data, the fourth quarter index will rise to more than 400 points this year.

These signs indicate that Keqiao's electricity supplier industry is growing rapidly and is becoming a new engine for Keqiao's economic pformation and a new form of Keqiao fashion.

FIG. 15 comparison of electricity supplier operation index and its classification index

Judging from the index of subdivision index, the number of "electric business enterprises" increased steadily, and increased to 116.54 points in the first quarter of 2018, a slight increase of 0.60% in the first quarter, up 3.88 percentage points over the same period last year. The "electricity supplier sales" index also showed a cyclical adjustment, and the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 255.22 points, a decrease of 48.89%, which is the main reason for the cyclical callback of the "electricity supplier running number" index.

05, the proportion of corporate cooperation index fell slightly.

The "enterprise cooperation ratio" index contains two classification index indexes, that is, "brand product sales volume ratio" index and "brand enterprise ratio" index, which is used to reflect the recognition degree of brand enterprises to Keqiao fashion textile products.

In the first quarter of 2018, the "enterprise cooperation ratio" index closed at 107.53 points, a slight decrease of 1.67%, and the "brand product sales volume ratio" index fell to 109.84 points, a decrease of 1.90 percentage points, while the "brand enterprise ratio" index dropped slightly at 104.59 points, and the ring ratio decreased 1.64%.

Both the "brand sales volume ratio" index and the "brand enterprise ratio" index both fell, leading to a slight decline in the "enterprise cooperation ratio" index.

However, compared with the same period last year, the index of "enterprise cooperation ratio" still rose slightly (about 1.07%).

This shows that Keqiao's fashion products are still being recognized as a whole.

FIG. 16 comparison of enterprise cooperation index and its classification index

(three) fashion promotion index cyclical decline

The Keqiao fashion promotion index reflects the promotion of Keqiao's government and enterprises to the fashion industry from the aspects of international exchange and cooperation, exhibitors' participation and the situation of foreign businessmen stationed.

The weight relationship between the three subdivision indices is shown in Figure 17.

Figure 17 weight index of fashion promotion index

In the first quarter of 2018, the Keqiao fashion promotion index continued to decline in the first quarter of the year, with a cyclical drop of 126.49 points, a decrease of 19.09%. However, compared with the same period last year, the Keqiao fashion promotion index still rose 17.22 percentage points over the same period last year.

This shows that, in general, the promotion of Keqiao's government and enterprises to the fashion industry is still increasing.

01, the international exchange and cooperation index intensified.

The number of international exchanges and cooperation has increased significantly since the first quarter of 2017.

In 2016, the index's fluctuation was 33.33%, and by 2017, the index had increased to 66.67%.

In the first quarter of 2018, the index was at the end of the exponential shock, closing at 116.67 points, a decrease of 30% compared to the same period, up 16.67 percentage points over the same period, indicating that the trend of Keqiao's fashion textile industry has risen, and international exchanges and cooperation are still very close.

Fig. 19 international exchange and cooperation index trend

02, foreign stationed index high small adjustment

The index of "foreign stationing quantity change" is reflected by the number of offices, the number of registered companies and the number of people in Keqiao.

In the first quarter of 2018, the index was 149.13 points, down 9.65%, but rose 36.11 percentage points over the same period.

But compared with historical data, the index of "foreign stationing quantity change" in the first quarter of this year is still high, exceeding the average level of more than 25%.

This shows that foreign businessmen still prefer Keqiao's fashion market, which has laid a good foundation for further internationalization of Keqiao's fashion.

Judging from the index of subdivision index, the number of offices increased steadily, rising to 117.26 points in the first quarter of 2018, a slight increase of 0.40 percentage points, an increase of 2.07% over the same period last year. The number of registered companies increased rapidly, closing at 141.67 points, rising 1.85 percentage points, an increase of 15.91% over the same period last year. The number of people entering the country has dropped, falling to 182.78 points, down 21.79% from the same period last year, which is the main reason for the slight adjustment of the "foreign stationed quantity change" index.

FIG. 20 trend of foreign resident quantity change index

Fig. 21 comparison of the trend of index numbers of foreign stationed quantities

03, the number of enterprises participating in the exhibition index cycle downward.

The index of the number of enterprises participating in the exhibition is composed of the index of "local exhibitors frequency" and "number of exhibitors". It reflects the subjective initiative of the enterprise's external publicity and promotion, and is an important part of the Keqiao fashion promotion index.

As can be seen from Figure 22, the cyclical change of the "enterprise participation frequency" index is significant. In the first quarter of 2018, the cyclical behavior of 125 points decreased by 11.76% compared with the previous quarter, but increased 7.14% compared with the same period last year.

This shows that the willingness of enterprises to promote foreign trade has improved to a certain extent.

Subdivision index index, although the "local exhibition frequency" index and the number of "going out to participate in the exhibition" index all showed varying degrees of decline, but due to the "drop in attendance frequency" index of greater decline, the "local exhibition frequency" index for the first time exceeded the "going out exhibition times" index, respectively, respectively, at 133.33 points and 116.67 points.

Fig. 22 comparison of index numbers of enterprises participating in exhibitions

(four) seasonal trend of fashion assessment index

The fashion evaluation index of Keqiao is conducted through a questionnaire survey to a representative number of merchants, business marketing managers and industry experts. Through the compilation of the scoring table, the fashion of Keqiao textile and textiles is comprehensively evaluated from the aspects of popularity, popularity, fashion, creativity, timing, promotion of soft power, the promotion of regional brands, and other aspects of Keqiao textile's popularity.

Figure 23 trend of fashion assessment index

In the first quarter of 2018, the Keqiao fashion assessment index was affected by seasonal factors, down to 115.28 points, down 13.73% from the previous quarter, down 25.20% from the same period last year.

Although the fashion assessment index has continued to decline since 2017, it is still higher than the base point of 100 points, indicating the Keqiao textile industry and textiles in all sectors of the industry.

The overall degree is satisfactory.