[Authority] "Textile And Garment Industry Should Have The Bottom Line": The Textile Industry Boom Index Picked Up In The First Three Quarters.

Since 2018, the world economy has been on the recovery track, and the market demand is more vigorous.

The supply side reform has continued to push forward, supply and demand relations have improved, sales formats have continued to innovate, and quality of development has been steadily improved.

Looking forward to the whole year, the textile industry is expected to maintain steady operation under the support of domestic demand consumption and pformation. However, a series of external pressures such as cost and environmental protection still need to be overcome. Trade friction needs to be properly dealt with, and the task of speeding up the development of high quality development and enhancing risk tolerance is intensified.

In an interview with CCTV news,

In recent years, the progress of the market along the "one belt and one way" market is also very good. Since last year, the export of our textile and garment industry has entered a positive growth again. As long as we make a rational analysis of the market, we should have the bottom line from the textile and garment industry itself.

Rapid growth in market sales

Consumption of domestic demand is outstanding.

New and old formats are speeding up at the same time.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2018, the per capita disposable income of our residents increased by 6.6% in real terms, and the consumption expenditure increased by 6.3% in real terms, which was faster than the per capita GDP6.2% growth rate. The contribution rate of consumption increased to 78%, which is closely related to the people's livelihood.

Sales of traditional textile and apparel products were better than last year. Retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 8.9% over the same period of 1~9 months, the growth rate increased by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the past three years.

The growth of new formats has maintained rapid growth. The online retail sales of apparel products nationwide increased by 23.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 4.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Fig. 1: domestic sales growth of textile industry

Export markets continue to pick up.

According to the customs express data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China (excluding 94 chapters) in 1~9 months was 207 billion 770 million US dollars, up 4.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year, which is 1.3 percentage points faster than that in the first half of this year.

From the point of view of product mix, textile competitiveness is stable, export volume grew by 10.5% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the proportion of total exports increased to 43%. Clothing was affected by factors such as high manufacturing costs, orders, investment pfer and other factors, and export pressure was greater. 1~9 export volume increased by only 0.6% over the same period last year.

Separately, the export volume of textiles, raw materials and textiles and clothing in the US, EU and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8%, respectively. The export growth rate to the US increased by 9.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The export market of Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia along the "one belt and one road" market grew well, and the exports increased by 30%, 5.7% and 21.6%, respectively.

Figure 2: export growth of textiles and garments

Steady improvement in quality and efficiency

Effectiveness of supply side reform

Economic benefits continued to improve.

In 1~9 months, 36 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 4 trillion and 219 billion 760 million yuan in total business revenue, an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year. The growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, but increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the first half of this year. The total profit reached 198 billion 80 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year, while the growth rate slowed down 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, but it was 4.7 percentage points higher than that in the first half of this year.

From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, the efficiency of the chemical fiber industry is stable at a higher level due to the increase of industrial concentration and the extension of large enterprises to the upstream refining and refining links. The total business revenue and profit of 1~9 increased by 14.4% and 22.3% respectively over the same period, which respectively promoted the 2 and 3.2 percentage points of the textile industry's main business revenue and profit growth.

Fig. 3: main business revenue and profit growth of textile sub sectors

The quality of operation is relatively stable.

In 1~9 months, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, the total assets turnover rate was 1.3 times / year, and the three fee ratio was 6.9%, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

Production keeps slow growth

Investment growth continues to pick up

Production capacity has been maintained at a relatively high level and production growth has slowed down.

1~9 months, textile industry and

Capacity utilization rates were 80.6% and 82%, respectively, which were higher than 76.6% of the national industry.

In 1~9 months, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, 2 percentage points slower than the same period last year, but 0.1 percentage points faster than the first half of this year.

Industrial chain terminal production growth is relatively stable.

The industrial added value of home textiles and industrial textiles increased by 4.6%, 4.9% and 8.4% respectively over the same period last year, and the growth of the capital and technology intensive industries increased rapidly. The added value of the chemical fiber industry increased by 8.2% over the same period last year, up 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The industrial added value of the textile machinery industry increased by 12.5% over the same period last year, reflecting the steady improvement of the competitiveness of the domestic equipment market.

Investment growth rebounded month by month.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total investment in fixed assets in textile industry increased by 5.8% over the same period last month, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, but 9.1 and 4.5 percentage points respectively higher than the first quarter of this year and the first half of this year. 1~9

In terms of industry, the textile industry (including

The growth rate of dyeing and finishing, knitting, home textiles and industrial use increased by 5.1 percentage points to 5.9% compared with the first half of the year, and the chemical fiber industry increased by 31.9% compared with the same period last year, and maintained a rapid growth for 6 consecutive months, while clothing industry investment decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year.

The macro environment is generally stable.

Downside risks should not be ignored

Looking forward to the future, the world economy will still be on the recovery track. However, the negative impact of risk factors on global economic growth, such as the increase in interest rate, liquidity contraction and aggravation of US trade protectionism, will gradually appear. The latest report released in IMF10 will reduce the forecast value of global economic growth in 2019 from 3.9% to 3.7%, and the growth of international market demand is slowing down.

Under the influence of the external environment, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation will increase, but the trend of steady development will not change fundamentally. The state's efforts to stabilize employment, and the income and consumption level of residents will move towards a well-off society in an all-round way. All these will support the continuous growth of the domestic market of textile and clothing, and become the absolute main force for the development of the textile industry.

Sino US trade frictions are escalating. Although the direct negative impact of the US tax increase measures on textile industry is very small at the present stage, the uncertainty of the trade environment has increased, increasing the worries of international buyers and domestic production enterprises.

In addition, factors such as rising factor costs, increasing environmental pressure, financing difficulties and financing will continue to affect the long-term operation of the industry, and textile enterprises still need to strengthen their response.

For the whole year of 2018,

The current smooth running trend will continue, and the main operational indicators will basically maintain the current growth level.

In 2019, the domestic and foreign market environment of China's textile industry has changed steadily. The pressure of the textile industry will increase compared with this year. The uncertainty of export situation is enhanced, and the internal demand of the industry to promote high quality development is more urgent. We must focus on improving production efficiency and wind risk ability, so as to maintain a steady development trend.