From The Sky To The Sky, Can We Fry After The Boom Of Cotton?

From June Xinjiang's production and hype, the price is flying, the weather is like a rainbow. Up to now In November, production and marketing were sluggish, and cotton prices were sluggish. This year cotton The price is like roller coaster. It's really an eye opener. What is the following trend?

　　 Cheng is also "cyclical".

The business cycle is closely related to the commodities, and is back to the second round of the business cycle. At the beginning of March 2016, under the background of the three supply side reform, with the familiar real estate investment demand stimulation, China's economy has ushered in a period of 3 years of recovery. Real estate investment plays an extremely important role in it: real estate sales data continue to go up to a new level, and stock alarm is everywhere, especially the three line, four line or even five lines of urban volume and price rise so that millions of people hope to "housing". But as the saying goes, the tide always recedes. In September 2018, Vanke raised the slogan of "going on" to start the first shot of the real estate enterprises to go to stock prices. Then the market expectations of the major brand housing companies followed up quickly. The house was hot from the previous hot to the present lack of people's interest, and wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Once the real estate sales data begin to show an unexpected decline, it is bound to drive the overall real estate investment data downwards, thus suppressing the domestic fixed assets investment. Therefore, it can be predicted that the fourth quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, the data performance of the investment side will show a steady downward trend, and the trend of bad commodities.

　　 Under the general trend, how can cotton be "independent"?

As the main consumer of cotton, the textile enterprises in the lower reaches of China have gone through a long period of benign development since 2016. The overall stable prices of cotton raw materials and economic recovery have led to a pick-up in cotton consumption, which has made the textile enterprises get more lucrative profits and steady overall consumption.

But the latter two factors can not be ignored, first of all, the Sino US trade frictions. Textile enterprises In 2017 and even in the first half of 2018 textile Export data as a whole saw a slight increase in the year-on-year growth. In the second half of 2018, the export of textiles began to be affected by trade friction, mainly because of the list of sanctions in the United States. Overseas buyers prefer to go to Vietnam, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries in order to avoid risks. The export orders of domestic textile enterprises have dropped sharply. In addition, Turkey, as a big importer of cotton and textiles, is also affected by trade friction, and the economy is failing, which will suppress domestic cotton consumption. Next is the transmission of the industrial chain, the next round of cotton prices. Spun The price increases have encountered the problem of poor transmission of the industrial chain. The upstream raw materials have started to rise in price, but the downstream fabric suppliers are hard to bear. The stock level is increasing and the pressure is increasing step by step.

Looking forward to cotton in the future Price trend The economic steady and slightly downward cyclical overlay trade friction effect, cotton consumption will drop slightly, and is expected to return to the level near 8 million 500 thousand tons. Combined with this year's production data and early commercial market which has been ignored by the market, the overall supply and demand of cotton is slightly loose, and prices are expected to stabilize steadily.