Cotton Prices 2019 Trend Signals: The National Cotton Planting Area Decreased By 2.7%

Cotton planting area decreased by 2.7% in 2019.

In December 2018, the cotton growers association of China Cotton Association conducted the first cotton planting intention survey in 2019 for 2799 farmers in 12 provinces and 2799 autonomous regions in Xinjiang.

The survey results showed that the cotton planting area in China was 47 million 718 thousand mu, a decrease of 2.7% over the same period last year.

Among them: Xinjiang cotton farmers' planting intention decreased by 2.1%, the the Yellow River Valley decreased by 4.8%, and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 3.6%.

In 2018, the cotton market remained stable, and output increased steadily. However, the uncertainty factors increased, and the purchase price declined. Cotton growers had a big divergence in the market outlook, and cotton planting intention declined.

On the 8-14 day of January, the import of cotton stocks in the Zhangjiagang bonded area decreased by 481 tons to 37195 tons a week, of which Brazil cotton increased by 1987 tons, cotton cotton increased by 1429 tons, India cotton increased 694 tons, Australian cotton stocks reduced 2347 tons, Cameroon cotton reduced 1576 tons, and cotton stocks in other countries did not adjust very much.

According to statistics, Brazil cotton 11791 tons, Australia cotton inventory 9562 tons, India cotton 6957 tons, cotton 4923 tons, Cameroon cotton 1471 tons, Uzbekistan cotton 927 tons, Mexico cotton 438 tons, Greek cotton 505 tons, and Israel cotton 392 tons this week.

One

To be careful

With the existence of the national storage cotton bank in 2019 (excluding the rotation), the domestic cotton quotas will increase significantly, and the proportion of imported cotton in the total domestic cotton consumption will continue to increase.

With the total consumption of 8 million 500 thousand tons in 2018 and the import volume of 1 million 500 thousand tons (1-11 months' import volume 1 million 360 thousand tons), the proportion of imported cotton is 17.6%.

Assuming that the quota in 2019 is still unchanged at 894 thousand tons, plus the remaining 800 thousand tons of quasi tax surplus in 2018, the remaining 660 thousand tons (estimated) will lead to an import volume of 1 million 860 thousand tons (120+66) in 2019 and an import cotton ratio of 21.8%.

In 2020, the imports of cotton will reach more than 2 million 500 thousand tons, and the proportion of imported cotton will be more than 28%. With the rising proportion of foreign cotton, the trend of international cotton prices will have an increasing impact on domestic cotton prices, and the international rebound will help domestic bottoming out.

Two

To be careful

According to CAI forecast, India's cotton export volume is expected to be reduced to 900 thousand tons this year, down from 1 million 100 thousand tons in the previous year. However, due to reduced production, if export reaches this level, domestic and imported cotton prices will be very strong.

Consumption is expected to be 5 million 500 thousand tonnes this year, basically unchanged from the same period last year.

CAI believes that even if India's cotton exports drop to 900 thousand tons, imports will accelerate in the next few months and set a record high.

Three

To be careful

Changshu Market: Recently, the trading volume of polyester filament has been enlarged and the price has been temporarily stable.

The purchasing power of DTY75D/144F and 120D/192F is acceptable.

At present, polyester raw materials shake adjustment, it is expected that polyester filament market will be moderately adjusted in the short term.

Morizawa Yoshiki: Recently, sales of nylon yarn are still good, prices are stable, and 40D/24F and 70D/24F nylon -6FDY are all dull.

The adjustment of raw materials in the upstream indicates that there will be a moderate adjustment trend in the future.

Changxin Market: the price of polyester POY, DTY and FDY is stable, and there is no fluctuation.

This week, part of the polyester plant will enter the shutdown phase of the Spring Festival before entering the Spring Festival. According to statistics, as of last Friday, the enterprises that have introduced maintenance plans have accumulated to 8 million 90 thousand tons and have accumulated to 2 million 980 thousand tons in the maintenance phase.

As the Spring Festival draws near, there will be an increase in maintenance enterprises.

It also reminds the downstream enterprises to pay more attention to the startup and shutdown of suppliers and grasp the progress of raw material procurement.