How Is The Cotton And Textile Market On The Chinese New Year Countdown?

One day, one month, one month, the new year is over.

By the middle of January, the lunar calendar has also entered the countdown.

How is the cotton and textile market now?

How to deal with holidays?

The author investigates cotton and spinning enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other regions, and analyzes them as follows:

First, textile enterprises are running a mixed race with a small amount of pre holiday plan.

Affected by the Sino US trade war, various industries were hit by different degrees in 2018, and textile enterprises with import and export trade had a greater impact. Most textile enterprises reflected that the current operation was mixed.

Part of the textile enterprises are more optimistic, the first half of the second half of business is better in the second half of the year, the product market is also basically according to the cotton market decline, some of the manufacturers have relatively good profit of orders, because the processing period and subsequent procurement, the basic can lock the cost difference; while some products stock and orders are not timely, the manufacturers are not profit, and follow the purchase strategy, to make up for the loss of product price.

The volume of raw material supply is relatively large this year, and the larger manufacturers choose larger space, with domestic cotton and imported cotton on the source.

Domestic cotton reserve cotton, new year's Xinjiang cotton and real estate cotton are purchased and self raised. They can purchase lint of different grades and prices according to the order of products.

A company with a scale of 50 thousand spindles in Shandong has advanced equipment and low labor cost. At present, the textile business is profitable, raw material stocks are generally 7-15 days, and 500-700 tons of lint are purchased monthly. According to the order situation, the number of purchased lint and the quantity of stock are adjusted. The current purchase of lint is mostly three, and the factory price is around 15200 yuan / ton.

The price of 21, 32 and 60 items in the plant is 20000 yuan / ton, 24000 yuan / ton, 30000 yuan / ton respectively.

The head of the company said: "the pre holiday plan is to purchase 300 tons in stock, which will keep the inventory for half a month, and the yarn should be kept for half a month. At present, it is sold as far as possible."

For the current lint and yarn quotes, manufacturers believe that stability is the keynote, and do not rule out a slight rebound due to the centralized preparation before the festival.

The smaller spinning mills are relatively pessimistic, with the price of 21 of the 10 thousand ingot manufacturers priced at 20000 yuan / tonne, which is negotiable.

Because the product is relatively single, the equipment is obsolete, the labor cost is high, and the profit is not good.

At present, the factory mainly purchases four grade lint, and the factory price is 14700 yuan / ton line. Because the market is unstable and the lint resources are more abundant, the manufacturers basically follow suit to avoid the risks brought by the market.

Before the festival, replenishment will be made according to the order situation, and the purchase quantity is uncertain.

Two, cotton processing industry rises and falls, and more temperate water market continues longer.

Compared to the textile industry, the cotton processing industry can be quite fierce this year.

In this era of cotton color change, the textile industry is in a better position than the cotton processing industry.

Limited seed cotton resources, difficult to cut prices to restrict profit margins.

Restricted by the poor cotton yield in recent years, the cotton planting area in the mainland has been decreasing year after year, and the amount of seed cotton resources is limited.

Among them, the quality of Hebei area is better, seed cotton purchase price is 3.30-3.40 yuan / jin (lint 38-40%, moisture 10-15%), in some areas, the price is lower at 3.10-3.20 yuan / Jin; the seed cotton purchase price in Shandong area is 3.30-3.60 yuan / jin (lint 38-40%, moisture 7-13%).

Due to the fact that seed cotton has been purchased late, the quality of seed cotton is uneven, and the purchase price is quite different.

If we buy at this price, the ginning plant will still be difficult to make profits, but the price reduction will be difficult.

Because cotton farmers do not have enough cotton in their hands, they sell at low prices.

In recent years, the seed cotton resources in the mainland have dropped significantly, and there are few trade differences. Many cotton middlemen have stopped or pferred to other trade sectors. Xinjiang seed cotton has lost the advantage of pporting to the mainland because of high freight rates.

From the choice of resources, the advantage of textile enterprises is obviously higher than that of cotton processing industry.

Lint rose less and more, but the market was postponed for a long time.

Affected by many unfavorable external factors, lint quotations this year can be seen as rising or falling, and the market will continue for a long time.

With the arrival of the replenishment period before the holiday, the lint market has been steadily recovering, but the actual paction price is negotiable.

Among them, the price of three grade lint factory in Hebei area is 14900-15000 yuan / ton (gross weight and ticket). The four grade lint factory price in Shandong area is 14600 yuan / ton (gross weight and ticket), and the three level lint price is 14800-14900 yuan / ton (gross weight and ticket).

Compared with the beginning of the scale, they all dropped by 2000 yuan / ton.

On Thursday (January 18th), Zheng cotton futures closed down and rebounded, of which the CF1905 main contract closed at 15300 yuan / ton, still down 2300 yuan / ton compared with the closing price of 17500 yuan / ton in August 31st.

Because cotton seed price is also weak adjustment operation, of which Hebei cottonseed factory price in 1.00-1.03 yuan / Jin, Shandong cottonseed factory price in 0.98-1.04 yuan / Jin, according to the spot lint and cottonseed price calculation, local cotton ginning factory Book loss amount in 10-200 yuan / ton, can only rely on the order and seed cotton purchase price or other way to reduce losses, business difficulties can be seen.

With the coming of the Spring Festival, most cotton processing industry is short of seed cotton stocks, and the lint stock is limited.

Most manufacturers have been trying to deal with the market intermittently. Some manufacturers plan to take early leave to avoid risks. For example, the lint market is not improving very much. It is expected that the twenty lunar calendar will be shut down and shut down before and after the lunar new year.

The Sino US trade war has brought a certain profit to the market, but the substantive content needs to be further clarified. The actual turnover date is less than half a month before the start of the festival, and the lint market is expected to be warmer under the stimulus of the last rotation library, but the actual increase still needs to stimulate downstream demand.

Cotton and textile industry still need to strengthen their own "training" to resist winter and tide over the waves, believing that "living" has their reasons and principles for existence.