In January, Caixin China'S Manufacturing PMI Dropped To 48.3, The Lowest Since March 2016.

In February 1st, Caixin China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released in January was 48.3, lower than 1.4 percentage points in December 2018, a new low since March 2016, indicating a further slowdown in the manufacturing industry.

This trend is not consistent with the PMI of the National Bureau of statistics.

The PMI released by the National Bureau of statistics in January recorded a 49.5 increase of 0.1 percentage points.

In January, the manufacturing output index failed to continue to rise slightly at the end of 2018 and fell into the contraction zone.

The manufacturers surveyed showed that demand weakened, leading manufacturers to adjust production plans.

In terms of demand, the total amount of new orders fell for two consecutive months, and the rate of decline has increased.

The downturn in domestic demand is the main reason for the decline in new orders.

In January, the new export orders index fell nine months to the expansion zone, the highest since April 2018.

Respondents generally reflected increased demand from abroad.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of the new capital think-tank, said that the new export orders index has rebounded sharply, reflecting that after the Sino US trade truce, the export orders of enterprises have been obviously restored.

Affected by the scale and efficiency of the enterprises, the employment index continued to shrink, but the contraction rate was the lowest in nine months.

The cost of manufacturing industry fell for two consecutive months, and the decline in January was slightly faster than in December 2018, but the whole is still moderate.

The manufacturers surveyed showed that the price of raw materials decreased and the cost burden was lightened.

In the context of a general decline in market prices and a downturn in demand, manufacturers have been reducing product sales prices for three consecutive months.

In January, the volume of purchases declined for the first time in 20 months, though the total volume of new orders slowed down and production demand declined.

Finished inventory also ended two months in a row, slightly down.

The survey shows that most manufacturers choose to reduce finished goods inventory due to the reduction of new orders.

Confidence in the industry has improved slightly.

The industry's confidence in the business outlook for the next 12 months has risen to its highest level in eight months.

Some manufacturers expect new products to come out and companies plan to expand, which will boost output in the coming year.

But the industry is concerned about weak demand.

Zhong Zhengsheng said that the counter cyclical control policy represented by capital construction in January has not yet achieved significant results, and domestic demand for manufacturing industry has contracted sharply. However, Sino US trade consultation has been progressing positively, and external demand turning to positive has become a bright spot.

Enterprises will increase their willingness to stock, and output will go down. The downward pressure on China's economy will be highlighted.

Fiscal and monetary policies will increase or accelerate, but the keynote of stable leverage and strong regulation remains unchanged, and the weakening trend of China's economy will continue.