In 2018, Yarn Production In The United States Declined, And The United States Sharply Reduced Global Cotton Consumption.

One

market conditions

1, cotton prices remain unchanged.

At the beginning of the month seven (February 11th), some cotton traders began to quote abroad, and cotton prices did not change much before the Spring Festival.

In the seed cotton market, the cotton seed sale was basically in a state of stagnation during the Spring Festival, and most of the new cotton had already been sold. Only a small number of cotton producers were planning to sell again after the market had improved. According to the purchase and sale data released by the national cotton market monitoring system before the end of the year, the national sales rate as of February 1st was 96.8%.

In the spot market, cotton enterprises will start construction in recent days, and mostly after sale. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the national processing rate is 98%. Some cotton traders have begun to offer quotations during the festival. Because of the strong festive atmosphere on the market, the price of the price is still much higher. Xinjiang cotton 3128 level quotation at 15600-16000 yuan / ton, real estate cotton 3128 level quotation 15100 yuan / ton (gross weight, self mention).

2, the adjustment of the first day after the first day of Zhengzhou cotton futures

In the futures market, during the Spring Festival holiday, the ICE main contract shock descended, from the highest price 74.85 cents / pound in January 31st to 72.53 cents / pound in February 8th, a drop of over 3%. Under the stimulation of ICE, the weak adjustment on the first day after Zheng cotton festival in February 11th, dropped slightly after opening.

3, textile enterprises have started in succession, and the market is calm as a whole.

Because textile enterprises generally have a long vacation time, the whole is relatively calm, and at present, they have not started yet, and most enterprises have purchased some raw materials inventory before the Spring Festival. As the textile market is showing signs of weakening demand and fierce competition, the textile market is still unclear and needs to continue to pay close attention to downstream demand.

Two

Industry operation

1, 2018, China's yarn production decreased by 0.2% compared with the same period last year.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, the yarn production in China was 2 million 666 thousand tons in December 2018, down 2.7% from the same period last year. In 2018, the yarn production in China was 29 million 760 thousand tons, down 0.2% from the same period last year.

In 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics announced 40 million 500 thousand tons of yarn production in China, with a gap of 10 million 680 thousand tons. According to statistics released last year, the national yarn production in 2018 decreased by 10 million 740 thousand tons compared with that in 2017, down 26.5% from the same period last year. It is reported that the reason for the decline may be related to the change of statistical caliber and the decline of chemical fiber production.

2, January 2019, manufacturing purchasing managers index slightly rebounded.

In January, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.5%, after a 4 month decline, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The main characteristics of manufacturing PMI this month:

First, the expansion of manufacturing industry has been slightly accelerated. Production index was 50.9%, slightly higher than last month's 0.1 percentage point. The new order index was 49.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month. Among them, the new export orders index reflecting external demand was 46.9%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month.

The two is the narrowing of the main raw material purchase price and the overall level of factory price. The survey results showed that the proportion of enterprises that reflected the high cost of raw materials and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on the production and operation of enterprises was 34.5% and 12.7%, respectively, which decreased by 2.9 and 1.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month. They all fell for three consecutive months, indicating that the pressure on purchasing cost of raw materials has eased recently, and the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation has also been reduced.

3, February global cotton supply and demand forecast report

The US Department of agriculture (USDA) released the February global cotton supply and demand forecast report: The total output of the world's cotton in 2018/19 was 25 million 791 thousand tons, 62 thousand tons less than that of last month, compared with 1 million 140 thousand tons in 2017/18, a decrease of 4.2%. Global consumption of 26 million 921 thousand tons, down by 432 thousand tons, a 233 thousand increase over 2017/18, an increase of 0.9%; import and export volume of about 9 million 210 thousand tons, an increase of 129 thousand tons from the previous month. The end of the world inventory of 16 million 437 thousand tons, an increase of 502 thousand tons, compared with 2017/18 reduction of 1 million 210 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.9%; global inventory consumption 61.06%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year.

In this month's adjustment, global cotton production decreased by 130 thousand tons from Turkey last month, China increased by 108 thousand tons, India reduced by 108 thousand tons, Brazil increased by 87 thousand tons, the United States reduced 43 thousand tons, consumption of China was reduced by 218 thousand tons, India reduced 108 thousand tons, and export volume increased by 87 thousand tons in Brazil. The final inventory increased by 436 thousand tons in China, India increased by 98 thousand tons, and the US slightly reduced. Among them, the reason for the sharp increase in China's final inventory was mainly due to the USDA's increase in production expectations and a sharp reduction in consumption.

4, 2018 1-12 month economic operation of the clothing industry

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018 1-12, the apparel industry above designated size enterprises completed 22 billion 274 million apparel products, down 3.37% from the same period last year.

In 2018 1-12, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 380987 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period last year. Among them, the retail sales of clothing products above the quota reached 987 billion 40 million yuan, an increase of 8.5% over the same period last year.

According to the customs statistics of China, in 2018 1-12, China's clothing and accessories exports totaled 157 billion 633 million US dollars, up 0.3% over the same period last year.

In the 1-12 month of 2018, the garment industry above designated size enterprises realized 10 trillion and 710 billion 657 million yuan of main business income, an increase of 4.07% over the same period last year. The total profit was 100 billion 675 million yuan, an increase of 10.84% over the same period last year; the sales profit margin was 5.89%, a 0.36 percentage point increase over the same period in 2017; 15.10% gross sales rate, 0.26 percentage points higher than that in 2017; three fee ratio 9.46%, an increase of three percentage points over the same period in 2017.

5, Hubei textile and garment industry annual profit growth of 29.4%

In February 1st, it was learned from the Hubei provincial trust office that the textile and garment industry in Hubei showed a "acceleration" trend in 2018. The main revenue of the whole year was 326 billion 407 million yuan, an increase of 10.6%, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than the average level of the whole province. The profit was 14 billion 452 million yuan, an increase of 29.4%, an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, the textile industry realized a profit of 9 billion 275 million yuan, an increase of 29.5%, and the garment industry realized a profit of 4 billion 101 million yuan, an increase of 24.7%, respectively, which was 10.1 and 5.7 percentage points higher than the average level of the province.

Three

Industry dynamics

1. Xinjiang's cotton output has reached a new high level, accounting for 83.8% of the country's total output.

Learned from the the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Bureau of statistics, in 2018, Xinjiang's cotton output reached a new high of 5 million 111 thousand tons, an increase of 11.9% over 2017, accounting for 83.8% of the whole country, representing an increase of 9.8 percentage points over the same period last year. The high output is due to the further expansion of planting area. In 2018, Xinjiang cotton sown area reached 37 million 370 thousand mu, an increase of 12.4% over the same period last year. Xinjiang's total cotton production, yield per unit area, planting area and commodity allocation ranked first in the country for 24 consecutive years.

In addition, Xinjiang has implemented a series of measures to support the development of cotton and related industries. In recent years, the whole mechanization has been widely promoted in Xinjiang cotton field. Autonomous Region Agricultural and rural office data show that more than 80% cotton fields in Northern Xinjiang have been fully mechanized, and the mechanization rate in southern Xinjiang is also close to 20%.

2, Huanggang's first billion yuan project put into operation.

Recently, the aggregate production line of the first phase of Huanggang green environmental protection project, which invested 13 billion 500 million yuan, was formally put into operation. As one of the three billion billion yuan projects introduced by Huanggang for the first time, green Yu's environmental protection takes the lead in putting into operation, which is expected to accelerate the revitalization process of the old industrial base with a weak base.

The green environmental protection project, namely, the 1 million year old industrial base for the recycling of waste textiles in the Yangtze River, is invested and built by Zhejiang green environmental protection Limited by Share Ltd. The Hubei Yangtze River economic belt industrial guidance fund supports it. After the completion of the enterprise, the waste textiles, industrial waste chemical fiber scrap and waste PET bottles will be processed and reused. The annual output of 1 million tons of polyester regenerated fiber and 5 billion meters of textile cloth can be widely used in water conservancy facilities, high-speed rail, subway, sponge City, bridge tunnel and other fields, and the market prospect is broad.

3, Shandong Ruyi holdings acquired Lycra LYCRA in the US.

In January 31, 2019, Shandong Ruyi Holding Group announced that it had completed the acquisition of the apparel and advanced fabric business of the company, including the world-renowned Lycra LYCRA brand. This transaction will further consolidate Ruyi's leadership in the global apparel and healthcare products market.

This transaction includes the fiber and brand portfolio of infield clothing and advanced fabric business, including LYCRA, LYCRA HyFit, COOLMAX, THERMOLITE, Elaspan, HyFit, SUPPLEX, and TACTEL TACTEL; TERATHANE TERATHANE poly four methylene glycol (PTMEG), 1,4 butanediol (tetrahydrofuran) and tetrahydrofuran; and includes related production assets, R & D centers, global sales offices, and all relevant technology brands, product patents, and business, operation and administrative personnel all over the world.

Three, Russia's production cuts are difficult and expected oil prices hit the biggest drop.

Crude oil shock fell last week, the biggest weekly decline this year (-4.8%). Although the output of OPEC has been the largest in two months in two months, the US authorities have been cracking down on a series of oil price sanctions against Venezuela, but on the other hand, US officials say they will not provide new sanctions against Iran, and the US oil production and export volume will be higher. The controversy over the reduction of production within Russia and the spread of the European economic slowdown will lead to a big decline in international oil prices last week. Ross said

Four, the dollar is thriving and the renminbi depreciated.

Recent data show that the European economic slowdown is increasing. The euro zone's manufacturing PMI in January hit a new low since November 2014. The European Commission has sharply lowered its growth forecast for the next two years. The British and Australian central banks have also lowered their economic growth forecasts. At the same time, the US economic data remained generally stable. In January, the number of non farm workers in the United States increased by 304 thousand, far ahead of 165 thousand. In January, the US Markit manufacturing PMI also went against the trend, highlighting the US economy's "thriving" and the US dollar index's strongest week since six months ago. Affected by this, last week, the major non US currencies such as the euro and the pound fell, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar spot exchange rate fell 277 basis points throughout the week.