Zheng Cotton Rebound Rise Why Warehouse Receipts Growth Slowed Down?

Since mid February, Zheng cotton has rebounded. The main CF1905 contract broke through the 15300 yuan / ton integer mark, leading the domestic Xinjiang cotton spot price to rise by 100-200 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, as of February 20th, Zheng cotton warehouse receipt 17094 sheets (-121 Zhang), effectively forecast 2107 warehouse receipts, and the two combined total of about 768 thousand tons of cotton (2 thousand tons less than February 19th), which is slower than the growth rate before the Spring Festival. Why did Zheng cotton increase the enthusiasm of cotton processing enterprises, traders' hedging and arbitrage did not increase significantly?

The author makes a brief analysis as follows:

First of all, Zheng cotton main contract is still in the 15000-15500 yuan / ton body consolidation, not now broken, the price of the new market cotton attraction is not enough.

From the survey, at present, the actual comprehensive cost of 3128/3129 class cotton picking up in Shihezi, Urumqi, Kuitun and other regulatory libraries in Northern Xinjiang has reached 15000-15200 yuan / ton (gross weight, including financial costs, warehousing, insurance and so on). If the CF1905 contract is delivered, even if the guarantee rate is not guaranteed, the comprehensive cost of cotton in the warehouse will not be less than 15600 yuan / ton (gross weight) in May, but the gross price of the corresponding standard level 15300 yuan / ton (public) is only 15600-15800 yuan / ton.

Second, in the past month, the difficulty in reporting, warehousing and generating warehouse receipts has led to a decline in the growth rate of "warehouse receipts + effective forecasts".

On the one hand, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, from late January to mid February, the number of Xinjiang cotton road pportation has been greatly reduced, and the progress of the warehousing and protection of the cotton enterprises has to slow down. On the other hand, due to the large number of loading and unloading, public inspection and other personnel taking turns, and the pressure on the storage and pportation of the inland pportation, the measures to limit the daily storage and the amount of warehouse receipts have been taken.

In addition, the continuous increase in the cost of cotton road pport after the Spring Festival has also increased the difficulty of enterprises moving to the warehouse.

Finally, part of the cotton business 2/3 month cash flow pressure, hope to take advantage of zhengmian cotton, spot prices rebounded tight shipment, return the funds.

According to several cotton ginning plants in Akesu and Bachu, according to the credit contract, as at the end of March, the repayment schedule of agricultural development loans should be no less than 50% (no less than 70% of individual enterprises). If the CF1905 contract is insured and delivered, the settlement will be too late to meet the demand for repayment.