Crude Oil Prices Are Rising Or Rising At A Higher Level.

On February 21st, global crude oil supply became tight, thus overcoming the pressure on US oil production to continue to rise to oil prices. Crude oil futures reversed the intraday decline trend for the sixth consecutive trading day, and hit a three month closing high. Meanwhile, the international Brent crude oil futures price also rose, reversing yesterday's downtrend.

Saudi Arabia and Russia made positive moves to cut production

Saudi Arabia's crude oil production target was 10 million 311 thousand barrels per day last December when the agreement reached between OPEC and its ally led by Russia reached the end of this year. The international oil price rebounded significantly at the end of 2018. So far, oil prices have risen nearly 25% in 2019, and the strongest performance since the first quarter of 2011.

From Russia's member countries, Moscow Kremlin said Tuesday that Russian President Putin and OPEC's real leader, Saudi Arabia's King Salman, said they support continued cooperation in the global energy market. However, as the largest non OPEC oil producing country in the alliance, Russia's full implementation of the production reduction schedule has been postponed for one month.

Russian energy minister Novak said Russia's target of reducing production will not be realized until May, and stressed that Russia is doing its best to achieve the target of reducing production as soon as possible. Russia's position has eased the doubts about whether Russia will abide by the agreement.

Sino US trade negotiations promote oil prices

The Sino US trade talks have sent positive signals to effectively boost the confidence of crude oil. President Trump said at the weekend that negotiations with China were "extremely smooth" and pointed out that Washington was closer to "reaching a substantive agreement" than before. Trump added that as long as the two sides could reach an agreement, he would cancel the tariff.

Focus on EIA crude oil inventory

It is worth noting that the output of us oil has remained high, which has greatly weakened the role of OPEC+ in reducing production. US oil production increased by about 2000000 barrels per day last year, to a record 11 million 900 thousand barrels / day. EIA expects output to exceed 12 million barrels per day in the year. API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 1 million 260 thousand barrels in the week of February 15th, and expected to increase by 3 million 80 thousand barrels.

In addition, gasoline inventories were reduced by 1 million 550 thousand barrels, and refined oil inventories were reduced by 758 thousand barrels. After the release of the data, the US oil short line rose rapidly.

In summary: The Sino US trade talks sent positive signals, which once again raised risk sentiment; Saudi Arabia plans to further reduce crude oil output to 9 million 800 thousand barrels per day in March; the US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran also restrict supply, Saudi Arabia will overshoot production and the geopolitical situation boost the short-term oil price; API data show that the US crude oil inventories grew less than expected last week, and gasoline refined oil inventories were reduced, focusing on EIA US crude oil inventory weekly. Short term crude oil prices or high volatility trend.