Depth Analysis: The Price Of Polyester Filament Will Increase Slightly In The Near Future.

There is hope for price increases. The market price of polyester filament will probably rise moderately in the near future.

1 crude oil rise

The recent international oil price rate has risen, continuing the current trend of warming.

The bottom support provided by the production reduction still exists, and the pressure of economic downturn can never break the underlying support.

With the easing of monetary policy by major central banks, concerns about the economic downturn are gradually being digested by the market.

On the contrary, with the announcement of follow up OPEC monthly report, the reduction of production is expected to continue, and supply reduction will boost oil prices.

In addition, the drop in crude oil output in Venezuela and Iran also boosted oil prices.

2 polyester cash flow is in good condition.

Recently, polyester plant started resumption. As of last week, five polyester load was 88.5%, slightly lower than we had expected, but also close to the peak season start.

After March, the production and sale of polyester products quickly recovered, and production and sales reached 200% last Sunday.

POY had a cash flow deficit, and after a week's early inventory, the pressure was raised and the cash flow turned into a profit.

As of last Friday, the cash flow of polyester POY150/48, FDY150/96 and DTY150/48 low bombs was 250.1 yuan / ton, 415.1 yuan / ton, 215 yuan / ton respectively. In terms of polyester and short, the cash flow was between 300 and 400 yuan / ton, and the cash flow in the bottle trade was 100 to 150 yuan / ton, and the export cash flow was 200 yuan / ton.

This also means that the overall cash flow situation of polyester terminal is relatively good.

3 polyester filament supply and demand balance

Polyester filament market supply and demand rebalance.

After the recent concentrated volume trading, the overall inventory level of the industry declined.

Recently, polyester POY and FDY mainstream stocks for 10-20 days, individual higher 25-30 days, individual lower 5-10 days; polyester DTY mainstream stock 15-25 days, individual higher 25 days to the upper level, individual low 7-10 days.

4 good atmosphere for weaving Market.

At present, weaving operation rate is generally getting warmer.

Recently, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms have a comprehensive starting rate of 84%, a rise of 9 percentage points.

Specific to the production base, Shengze water loom operation rate of 80%-90%, Changxin water loom operating rate of 90% near the level, Shaw round machine operating rate of 80% near the level.

In terms of warp knitting, the overall operating rate of Haining is 70%-90%, and the overall operating rate of Changshu is 70%-90%.

In the current stage, compared with weak demand, the reduction of output to the international oil price is obviously more effective.

Moreover, after last week's concentrated volume trading, the stock level of polyester filament industry has generally declined, which is conducive to the operation of the market. Therefore, although the enthusiasm of the downstream market has dropped, it is expected that the latter market will form a steady upward trend.

Besides the polyester filament, the printing and dyeing enterprises also have the trend of increasing prices. The following is the notice of adjusting the dye charges of some printing and dyeing enterprises:

1 Huizhou dye up regular cloth.

The increase in fees is generally divided into several categories, basically adjusted according to the weight of cloth seeds. The increase is basically a small cloth category.

According to the notice,

More than 1.140 grams of conventional cloth dyeing fees

Light color 12.5 yuan /KG, medium color 14 yuan /KG, dark color 16 yuan /KG, average price 15 yuan /KG

2.100-140 grams of conventional cloth dyeing fees

Light color 14 yuan /KG, medium color 16 yuan /KG, dark color 18 yuan /KG, average price 17 yuan /KG

Below 3.100 grams, each is less than 20 grams plus two yuan /KG (16 yuan /KG).

Other processing costs will be improved at the same time, including special requirements for small bills, color fastness and fluorescent colors.

Learned from Ming Rui textile in Huizhou, the implementation date of the dye price adjustment starts in March 15th, and the standard is based on the production and operation card date.

Second, the middle mountain restricted shipment period pushed back.

Another focus of printing and dyeing in Guangdong: Zhongshan.

Due to the peak of production, sewage has been restricted since the beginning of March. For the dyeing factories in the peak season, production can not be carried out normally, and the cargo period has been pushed back.

Zhongshan overseas hair washing garden park water and steam, basically is 12 hours of class, stop 24 hours.

3 Zhejiang's dye charges continue to rise

In March 10th, Zhejiang's famous printing and dyeing enterprise, Hangzhou Zhuo Da dyeing and finishing, issued the "official letter on the price adjustment of dye charges". Since March 16, 2019, all dyeing and dyeing products have been adjusted to 0.20 yuan / meter on the basis of the original price.

According to Hangzhou Zhuo Da dyeing and finishing business manager Zhang Xiaodong: now Zhuo Da company's production has expanded, all products daily shipments of finished products can reach 600 thousand meters per day, now every day into the factory is about 500 thousand meters of white, now subdivision products each workshop production orderly operation, the first cylinder delivery date is 6-8 days to complete.

Some other dyeing factories in other parts of Zhejiang also have this situation: the date of suspension is extended to No. 20, please do not arrange white embryo storage before 20.

Otherwise, pport loss is conceited!

The delivery date is 15 to 20 days after the order.

4 suspension of printing and dyeing in Fujian

Fujian is busy like the beginning of the year. After three consecutive rises, there is no notification of the fee adjustment. However, the number of embryos in the dyeing plant is increasing, and the embryo storage can not be stored. Some printing and dyeing enterprises have issued a notice to suspend the embryo collection.

The reason for the increase of dye fee is that the cost is rising, and the production cost of water, electricity, steam and dyeing auxiliaries is increasing.

Another reason is that environmental protection is becoming more stringent.

Printing and dyeing enterprises have always been very cautious in their cost adjustment, and their bargaining power to customers is not high. On the one hand, they are worried about customer churn, and the other reason may not be adjusted, so they can no longer maintain normal production costs.

Price increases have to be done.

But on the other hand, both polyester and printing and dyeing enterprises have the intention to raise prices, which indicates that the market is rising. If the market is relatively bad, there is no room for price rise.

Recently, the business of some dyeing factories in Shengze has been very popular. Huang Sheng dyeing factory said: "at present, the order is acceptable. Compared with last week, the order volume has been enlarged by 10%-15%, mainly in T400, imitation memory, high density polyester Taff, etc."

Ming Tak printing and dyeing Wang also said that the current flat cylinder products are busy, and the queuing cycle is also elongated, about a month or so.

Affected by this, the recent tight delivery period, some enterprises have issued a notice of advance order, we can see that "gold three" is in sight, now is also the "golden three silver four" critical time point, environmental impact, customer demand will have a great effect on the market, polyester and dye and so on.

(source: printing and dyeing, chemical fiber top)