IMIS Force Majeure Superimposed On Hai Jiang Parking Acrylonitrile Rally Still Available

Since the beginning of March, the price of acrylonitrile market has been rising continuously at home and abroad. The price of the mainstream port outlet in East China has risen from 12400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 13100 yuan / ton at present, up to 700 yuan / ton, and the closing price of CFR Far East has risen from 1630 US dollars / ton to 1750 US dollars / ton, or 120 US dollars / ton.

In March, the performance of acrylonitrile supply and demand side was strong, and the favorable factors mainly came from the parking of the British market and the Hai Jiang device, which made the supply side tight.

Among them, the total capacity of the car is 1 million 125 thousand tons / year, resulting in tight global supply.

In addition, Shandong Hai Jiang chemical industry suddenly stopped in the early March due to failure, and it failed to recover.

Table 13 parking trend of acrylonitrile plant at home and abroad in August

Unit: 10000 tons / year

Source: lung Chung

The global supply of acrylonitrile is tight, especially after the purchase of the lower buyer of the contract, and it has to replenish raw materials from the spot market, which has also stimulated the emergence of domestic export orders.

In March, China's foreign trade orders for acrylonitrile products increased significantly over the same period, with export prices as high as 1720-1750 US dollars per ton, far higher than the domestic price of RMB.

In addition to the tight supply side, the downstream demand for acrylonitrile is generally robust.

Among them, the ABS industry started to stay above 90%, and due to the tight external market, some ABS big factories need to replenish raw materials and acrylonitrile products from the domestic spot market. Acrylamide production profits are considerable, manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is relatively high, and the overall load started to rise near 65% in March. Due to the narrower profit margins, some manufacturers continue to take measures to limit production, and the industry start-up load is maintained at 6-7%, which is also the main factor limiting the increase of acrylonitrile.

Table 2 summary of recent operation rates of acrylonitrile and downstream products

Source: lung Chung

Sinopec's acrylonitrile price settlement price in March was 12800 yuan / ton, up 650 yuan / ton compared with February settlement, which is higher than that of previous industry.

After the settlement, the bullish mentality of the latter is more obvious, mainly based on two points. On the one hand, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the sea river device is not expected to restart in the short term; on the other hand, the whole downstream operation is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to be maintained.

However, as the price of acrylonitrile continues to rise, the cost of downstream shifting will become increasingly difficult, especially when the acrylic fiber is weak and will continue to limit production in the later stage. It will also continue to limit the rise in acrylonitrile.