Tang Zhen: Cotton City Steady Pregnancy, Patience Is More Important Than Ambition.

The recent trend of cotton futures has gradually entered a stable state after an increase of 80 thousand and 8 thousand hands in February, and a wave of Mavericks after the new spring seems to be at the end of the new year.

However, ICE cotton futures has been on the rise for a period of time after a significant increase of about 70 cents per pound.

How will the next market go?

The author believes that many uncertain factors are still pregnant, but there is still time for the outbreak.

Patience is more important than ambition. Making the right strategy combined with reality is still the focus of the moment.

The best way to control the cotton market is still macro and policy.

First of all, look at the trend of Sino US trade negotiations, and have experienced several rounds of high-level negotiations and visits. Trump has given a commitment to maintain the 10% tariff without increasing the indefinite period. The two countries' negotiations are still continuing. It should have been a good buffer period for China's real economy. The total body is a good result. Next, we continue to pay attention to the progress of the end of the month and the latest trend.

Judging from the current situation, the situation is still good. Although it is not known for a long time, we can see that in the past few months, the US economic data show that the United States is stirring up trade disputes. It is hard to say that it is not "killing ten thousand of the enemy, but losing eight thousand".

The Trump administration still needs to have more patience while gaining more benefits. At the same time, the Chinese government is also patient enough to win the promise of not upgrading the trade war.

In addition, we look at the news about the policy. Recently, I participated in the annual meeting of the national cotton trading market. At the meeting, I got some policy direction. The state is in the direction of stabilizing the cotton price and reducing the domestic and foreign cotton price difference in the cotton industry policy.

At present, the current situation of insufficient cotton production in China still exists. To solve this problem, it is mainly through imports. The increase in imports will be realized through the issuance of quotas. There will be more movements behind the quotas, but we must seize the opportunity.

Through these messages, we can see the policy direction of the country. At present, we can think that the state should not deliberately increase the supply of the market in a relatively stable market. We should pay attention to the cotton price and grasp the rhythm. At the same time, it is mentioned that the state will consider the round out system and change the current one way round.

For the latter part of the quota issuance, I think it should also be a timely and appropriate way to meet the needs of downstream enterprises.

In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the US Department of agriculture's report data in March can be said to be relatively small, with a small increase in global output and end inventory.

Slightly empty data, failed to block the upward trend of US cotton futures, the main reason should be a larger price difference between inside and outside, the domestic 1% tariff quotas issued after the concentrated purchase of domestic textile enterprises caused by the market.

Later, we should pay attention to whether Sino US negotiations have any action on the purchase of American cotton and whether it will be carried out in a round way. If this is achieved, it will be a great benefit for ICE cotton.

From the domestic point of view, in February, 4 million 565 thousand and 200 tons of commercial inventories were reduced by 283 thousand and 400 tons, down 5.8% from the previous month, 809 thousand and 300 tons of industrial stocks, 44 thousand and 300 tons less than the previous month, and the inventory consumption was not too fast, and the impact of April 1st tax reduction and tax reduction on the spot market was concerned.

Through market research in the past few weeks, we know that domestic cotton spot sales are not warm, but the downstream textile enterprises have been improved for some time after the Spring Festival, but they are not stable, and the domestic downstream market is also quite different. The wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong.

It can be said that in the short term, there is no big bullish factor to stimulate the cotton market.

But as time is about to enter the planting season, the deepening of Sino US negotiations, policy guidance gradually clear, market silence for a long time may also have unexpected development.

In view of the present situation, because cotton options have been listed, it is suggested that spot enterprises should learn more and improve, and make more flexible use of futures and options tools, so as to win small market returns, seize the opportunity and rhythm, and consider long term contracts in the long term.

Upstream cotton producers and downstream textile firms can choose to sell short value bullish or put options to win short period royalty income.

In addition, enterprises with a heavy backlog of goods should also have risk prevention awareness and choose some guaranteed stocks. Before May, they should consider digestion and inventory.

Speculative buying can be bought at low positions in the far month contract, and can be operated in band and light.