Gem Quarterly Look Ahead! More Than 60% Achieved Growth, And Textile And Garment Grew Faster.

At present, gem quarterly disclosure notice has been basically completed.

It is estimated that the growth rate of gem and gem is -1.4% and -3.2% respectively, and the decline is narrowing sharply.

From the performance forecast situation, 486 listed companies predicted net profit ceiling growth, accounting for 65%.

Among them, Julong technology forecast net profit growth is the largest, the company expects net profit of 17 million yuan to 22 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 51459.52% to 66565.26% over the same period last year.

The company said that the above prediction is based on the following reasons: the net profit growth attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2019 was obvious because the sales revenue in the first quarter of 2019 increased by about 10% compared with the same period last year. It is estimated that the impact of non recurring gains and losses on the net profit of the parent company is about 13 million yuan, an increase of 1 million 511 thousand yuan over the same period of last year.

According to Tianfeng securities statistics, gem and GEM mean 19Q1 forecast net profit growth is -1.4% and -3.2% respectively, the decline is narrowing sharply. The growth enterprise board refers to the median growth rate of 19Q1 15%, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than that of 18Q4, and gradually returns to the endogenous growth rate.

Tianfeng Securities said that the credit environment, composition structure, and policy background decided that GEM (19Q1) "profit first sight" was different from 18Q1's "return to light".

Tianfeng Securities believes that the 19Q1 growth rate is significantly improved compared with the 18 year annual report, which provides a significant reference to the impact of impairment.

Due to the sharp decline in the growth of net profit of gem on the 18 annual report, a large number of unconventional factors such as impairment of goodwill, bad debt losses and stock price fall have been greatly impacted by a large number of stocks.

However, if the amount of impairment of goodwill in the 18 annual report is returned to net profit, the growth rate of gem and gem will still be 35.8 and 10.8 percentage points higher than that of 18Q4, indicating that there is also a signal of fundamental warming for the growth of 19Q1.

In addition, the credit environment, policy background and composition structure determine the "early dawn" of 19Q1, which is different from that of 18Q1.

The biggest worry for the market is that the gem will come down again after the first quarter performance pulse, just like 18Q1.

We do not think this will happen again this year.

The first is the difference of credit environment.

The 19 year is a double loose credit market, which is different from the tight environment in 18 years. The expansion of macro liquidity will bring about a steady upward trend in corporate earnings.

The two is the difference of policy background.

The growth plate has benefited from the policy friendly environment launched by the founder board, which is different from the 18 years of strict financial supervision.

The three is the difference of component structure.

Gem refers to a four year adjustment of constituent stocks (19 years after February, the rule is changed to two times a year, consistent with the index of the CSI), and the index self optimization ability is strong. At present, most of the index stocks are dominated by subdivision, which is different from last year's stock market's serious drag on the plate.

According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2019, the growth rate of net profit growth in the first quarter was textile, clothing, automobile, light industry manufacturing and medicine. The industries that contributed much to the growth of the board were medicine, communications and automobiles.

In the first quarter of 2018, the growth rate of the basic chemical industry and media industry, which contributed more to the growth of the sector, declined somewhat, showing a negative growth.