Import Cotton Sliding Quasi Tax Quota, Pressure Cotton Market Is Still Lack Of Reinforcements.

Spring has gone 2/3, and the spring sowing boom in Xinjiang has been opened. Sino US economic and trade consultations have made important progress, and macro expectations have gradually improved. Recently, Zheng cotton chief explored sixteen thousand important juncture, like a seed struggling unceasingly to break the shell, and the long silence of cotton city will usher in a big market.

In April 8th, Zheng cotton company changed its monthly contract to 09 contract, as of April 12th, 17402 pieces of zhengmian warehouse receipt, which effectively forecast 4861 warehouse receipts and 891 thousand tons of cotton discount.

05 the contract will be faced with the final delivery time. How can we deal with the huge quantity of warehouse receipts?

As shown in the chart, the closing price difference between the 05 and 09 contracts after the Spring Festival holiday is widening. The price difference in April 12th is 510 yuan / ton. It is expected that some warehouse receipts will be released in the market, and most of the resources will be pferred to 09 contracts.

According to my agricultural product network, because of the slow pace of goods pportation, some cotton enterprises and trading land in the territory continue to pfer the lint to the mainland delivery warehouse to prepare warehouse receipts. In the short term, the number of warehouse receipts is still an important factor for the increase in the price of the restricted period.

Deepening the value-added tax reform, starting in April 1st, China's manufacturing industry and other industries value-added tax rate from 16% to 13%, and pportation industry and other industries, the current 10% tax rate dropped to 9%.

The implementation of the new policy has greatly reduced the cost of raw material procurement funds and the tax burden of product sales in the downstream cotton mills, which has a great positive effect on its operation and profits, and the number of Xinjiang cotton has increased greatly.

According to part of the textile enterprises reflect the decline in value-added tax, downstream enterprises have asked them to reduce the sale price of cotton yarn and grey cloth, and gradually reduce prices from bottom to top, and ultimately to the price of lint.

According to my agricultural product network, downstream textile enterprises have more short lists, and the pressure of conventional varieties is too large. Due to the high price of domestic cotton, we wait and wait for the news of the national cotton store.

At present, there is no official news about the national cotton store. There is an endless stream of market information about the timing of the launch. But it is certain that the public inspection work of the national cotton warehouse has been carried out step by step since March. At present, the number of state cotton stocks is below the warning line, and the proportion of real estate cotton is larger than that of the general cotton store.

With the stock consumption of reserve cotton, the future market will gradually enter the stage of social inventory digestion. This year, if we throw away the stock, it will be good in the long run, and the short-term impact on the spot market will mainly depend on the price and quantity of the national cotton store.

In order to guarantee the needs of textile enterprises to use cotton, the relevant departments have decided to issue a certain amount of import quotas for cotton tariff quotas this year.

The amount of sliding quasi tax quotas issued for imported cotton is consistent with that of last year, which is 800 thousand tons. The difference is the time when the policy was introduced. Last June, when the weather was short of production, the cotton production went through the bull market. According to the data released by various agencies, the cotton production in 2018/19 increased from the previous year. At present, the planting of three major cotton producing areas started in succession. At the same time, the announcement of the import slip tax quota message played a strong role in stabilizing prices.

Generally speaking, the market pessimism is weakening, and the cotton market is still in demand. The demand side: the linen consumption of the downstream textile enterprises is gradually decreasing, and the majority of enterprises will also basically end the first round of replenishment after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the key to raising the downstream demand is whether the Sino US economic and trade consultation can reach an agreement at an early date.

Supply side: the domestic stock of lint cotton is huge and the digestion time is still needed. Moreover, the national cotton reserves and the imported cotton in the quota are ready to enter the domestic market at any time. According to my agricultural product network, due to the policy of "water restriction" in Xinjiang area, some cooperatives reflect that their cotton planting area will decrease by 3%~10% from the previous year. The specific value needs to be answered at the end of April, and at the same time, we should pay close attention to the weather conditions in the cotton producing area.