There Are Still Many Themes In The Cotton Market. The Expected Price Will Be Strong And Weak.

Since April, domestic cotton prices have been stable and strong.

As of last Friday, Xinjiang's "double 28/ double 29" Xinjiang cotton spot price quoted 15600 - 15700 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the previous week.

As of last Friday, Zheng cotton 1905 contract closed at 15395 yuan / ton, 1.55% higher than the previous week, the base price of 250 yuan / ton, and the ginning factory and traders futures delivery advantage, there are still warehouse receipt registration.

As of April 12th, Zheng cotton registered 17402 warehouse receipts, an increase of 532.

Warehouse receipts still have certain restrictions on the futures market.

Spot inventory, as of February, domestic cotton business inventories of 4 million 570 thousand tons, a decrease of 280 thousand tons.

Industrial inventory is 810 thousand tons, and the reduction is 40 thousand tons.

Domestic cotton processing is basically finished, followed by inventory stage, pressure will not continue to increase.

However, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is relatively high. Up to April 12th, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was 146 yuan / ton, and the import advantage remained.

In February, domestic cotton imports 230 thousand tons, an increase of 130% over the same period, and imports in March and April are still relatively strong.

In April 12th, the NDRC added 800 thousand tons of cotton import quotas, and imports still constituted a relative constraint on domestic cotton prices.

However, it is rumoured that domestic dumping may be delayed compared with previous years. If so, domestic supply will be more affected by imports and international markets.

And the rising price of international cotton will also make Zheng cotton relatively resistant.

On the international market, cotton prices are relatively strong supported by export demand.

By the week of April 4th, the US cotton net signed 289 thousand packs this year, down 33 thousand packets from the previous week, rising by 208 thousand packs per week compared with the previous week. As of April 4th, the 380 thousand pack in the current year decreased by 27 thousand bags compared with the previous week, rising 357 thousand packs from the weekly average.

Cotton prices are expected to be strong and weak.

From the year's perspective, 2018/2019's global cotton ending inventory is 76 million 440 thousand packs, down 4 million 610 thousand packets compared with the same period last year, and has been out of stock for 4 years since 2015.

From the monthly forecast change, in April, 2018/2019's global cotton inventory was 76 million 440 thousand packs, an increase of 350 thousand packs, extending the expected increase in stock since January.

In view of this, cotton market has been improving for a long time, but it is still under pressure in the short term.

Sino US spring sowing is approaching, the new year's area has not brought effective variables to supply and demand expectations, and the market attention has weakened. The supply level has gradually turned to pay attention to the weather during spring sowing.

The meteorological bureaus of various countries have increased the probability of El Nino, and this background does not exclude the possibility of bringing upward braking themes to the market.