More Than Half Of The April 2019 Polyester Bottle Market Situation Is Difficult To Exceed Last Year'S Brilliant.

2018 is a year worth remembering in the period of great development of PET bottles. In the two quarter, the price broke 5 years high, breaking through ten thousand yuan mark, the profit is as high as 2000 yuan, and the export volume and average price have reached a new height.

However, in the first quarter of this year, the bottle film market has gradually entered the peak season, but it is difficult to surpass the glory of last year.

In 2018, the first part of the month was replenishment before the festival, and the bottle market was in a consolidation state before and after the Spring Festival. After entering the March, the atmosphere of the spot market was cool, and the demand for the stock market continued to consume before the Spring Festival.

However, in April, the manufacturers concentrated on the overhaul period, and the output decreased, and the stock went on continuously. With the weather getting warmer, the downstream terminals gradually resumed operation, and the supply of bottles and chips was in short supply, resulting in a sharp increase in the quotations of manufacturers and even suspension of quotations.

In 2019, the bottle bottomed market rebounded in January, the replenishment before the lower reaches of the festival, and the consolidation before and after the Spring Festival. In March, the Sino US trade war brought a good news. In addition, the state was about to introduce a new policy of reducing taxes and reducing taxes. The downstream sentiment was more positive, and the shipments were tight. After entering April, the price of the flakes rose, and some manufacturers were in a tight spot.

On the whole, there is not much difference and change in the market rule. In April, the market price is quite different from that of the same period last year. Why is that?

Let's analyze the relationship between cost and supply and demand.

Cost end:

PX Hengli a set of 450 tons of refining and chemical equipment in late March this year, the process has just been opened, is expected to be released in May; PTA added Tong Kun Jiaxing 2 million 200 thousand tons / year installation, upstream raw materials supply increased, the recent decline in PX driven PTA prices decline, cost side support weakened, dragging bottle market.

Supply side:

Compared with the large number of exports caused by the shutdown of two factories abroad last year, the export of bottle bottles decreased this year, and two sets of 600 thousand tons of new equipment were added to Chenggao, and two sets of PET installations were put into operation in the second half of 19 years.

Coupled with the late maintenance of the PTA device, there is not much news at present, and the bottle market is running narrowly.

Demand side:

Last April, in response to the coming of the peak season, the market price of PET bottle chips surged along with the import and export demand and the high cost of upstream raw materials, and the cash flow level reached a new high of ten years.

The pressure of factory supply is large, and the order is started later, and the warehouse has certain stock business, pushing the spot price to more than ten thousand yuan.

This year, with reference from last year, the lower reaches of the March were stocked up ahead of schedule, and the hype of raw materials and bottles were reduced.

And the recent cost support is insufficient, dragging down the bottle piece, the downstream demand is not good, wait-and-see sentiment is thick.

As we all know, the profit of bottle film is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. To date, the bottle spot market is more intense, but there will not be much change in the market. Before the May 1 holiday, there will be an upsurge of stock preparation, but it is also difficult to balance yesterday's heat.

It is worth noting that all kinds of quotations from the last month to the far month have appeared since last year, including contracts and shipments, which are very similar to futures. At present, Zheng Shang is also conducting research. So it seems that the futures market will be available for a long time, so let's wait and see.