Cotton Market: Futures Futures Callback Spot Price Strong (4.15-4.19)

Last week (April 15-19), the news was relatively calm, internal and external futures callback arrangement, due to the uplift of Zheng cotton bottom, the spot price in the spot price prevailing market is relatively strong, and the turnover is light.

The sale of cotton yarn is slow and the price is down.

The price of imported cotton is lower than that of Xinjiang cotton and sales are relatively good.

Cotton price B index 15590 yuan / ton, weekly rise of 15 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1905 contract, spot premium 225 yuan / ton, expand 35 yuan / ton.

Futures.

Last week, an external fund launched the rally, and did not get much follow suit fund response, but it attracted many physical arbitrage, the disk callback arrangement, the contract CF1905 closed on 15365 yuan / ton on Friday, weekly fell 30 yuan / ton, traded 447314 hands, reduced 105492 hands, reduced 19.1%, held 186358 hands, reduced 71088 hands, reduced 27.6%, CF1905 close to delivery, capital gradually shift warehouse waiting for opportunities in September.

CF1909 closed at 15845 yuan / ton on Friday, fell 60 yuan / ton weekly, traded 2369046 hands, an increase of 843640 hands, an increase of 55.3%, holding 665772 hands, an increase of 121820 hands, an increase of 22.4%, the disk amplitude increased, turnover, holdings increased.

By the end of April 19th, the top 20 seats in the position were more than 273690 hands, an increase of 14687 hands, 360980 hands empty, 33708 more hands, 87290 hands empty, 19021 hands higher, higher spot price, higher spot price, larger stock spot spot arbitrage, net clearance increased.

As of the end of April 19th, buying 50633 sets of holdings, increased 33154 hands, sold 95164 insurance policies, an increase of 33978 hands, trading increased significantly, more frequent differences.

One cycle turns 8636 hands, week increases 2428 hands, 17 year warehouse receipt speeded up outflows.

As of April 19th, there were 18430 registered warehouse receipts and 1028 additional weeks.

The warehouse receipt effective forecast 4534, week reduces 327, still has the massive forecast, reflected on the spot the spot sale difficulty has not improved, on the other hand, the plate rises the warehouse receipt sales profit obviously is better than the spot sale.

There are only 110 forecasting warehouses.

The forecast is mainly in the mainland sales database, 1975 in Jiangsu, 687 in Henan, 525 in Hubei, and 603 in Shandong.

On the basic side, consumption is weak, supply is adequate, cotton yarn sales are difficult, prices are sluggish, cotton prices can not be effectively passed back, and will further reduce consumption. After the 800 thousand tons sliding quota is issued, according to the existing international cotton prices, domestic cotton prices will drop, and domestic cotton prices will be bad.

Us disk: Fundamentals export data is not good, the surrounding agricultural products soybeans, corn, wheat fell, technology last week K line is facing 40 week average and 80 integer suppression, the disk slightly callback.

The May contract closed at 77.39 cents / pound on Friday, down 62 points, and there is still room for callbacks.

Continue to pay attention to the latest results of Sino US negotiations.

On the spot.

It is not suitable to register the warehouse receipts and lower the cotton prices. The price of the cotton is very low, and the price is close to or slightly lower than the 17 year old cotton.

In the import cotton of customs clearance, India cotton quotes at 15200-15600 yuan / ton, sales are better, low grade Brazil cotton quotation is 15400-15600, there is also a certain market, high grade Brazil cotton 16000-16200 yuan / ton, part of the substitution of American cotton, West African cotton generally in 15700-15900 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton length 28, strong 26 quoted price in 15700-15900 yuan / ton (inland bank), "double 28" Xinjiang cotton in 16000 yuan / ton above, general cargo, generally point price.

Viscose and polyester prices are at a low level and have a "swallowing" effect on cotton consumption.

After the late slide quota issued, the sale of New Territories cotton.

Operation suggestion.

The basic and technical aspects are short of clear and short term factors, and the probability of interval oscillation is relatively large in the near future. Weather and policy factors are easy to induce capital speculation, and pay close attention to trade war and national policy information.