Bad Mood Spreads PTA Or Hard To Be Independent.

Recently, the price of PTA spot is still strong under the repurchase of mainstream suppliers. With the restart of Yisheng device, the start-up has also risen.

However, as the downstream demand is weak, polyester load reduction and cost support are insufficient, PTA has more bad news. It is expected that supply will gradually increase in May, and empty sentiment will increase.

PX supply and demand is weak, prices continue to fall.

In the context of Hengli PX new equipment put into operation, Asia PX continues to be weak, and the supply of PX will continue to be loose in the future.

But the PX- naphtha oil price dropped to near $320 / ton, close to the cost line of PX plant, the willingness of manufacturers to raise prices was stronger, and the possibility of future price differentials continued to shrink.

At present, crude oil prices are hard to fall sharply. The price of PX is mainly centered or concussion, estimated at 850-950 US dollars / ton.

The PTA plant has been started in succession, with ample supply.

The recent PTA processing error continues to maintain at around 2000 highs, and a number of devices have been restarted. It is estimated that the operation load of PTA devices will continue to rise in mid 5 months, and the supply will be ample.

According to the principle of supply and demand, supply exceeding demand will lead to a downward trend in prices, and the subsequent rise in PTA prices will be limited.

Polyester production and sales rate is low, inventory is high.

Recently, the polyester profit has been squeezed heavily by raw material PTA profit. In the past, the polyester market will generally advance and retreat with the raw materials. But this year, although PTA support is acceptable, the downstream terminal textile market operation rate has been declining, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The national loom starts at 73.56%, and the ring ratio slipped by 0.63% again. Especially this year, the overall opening rate of the loom loom is only kept at a low level near 46.3%, and some small round machine factories in Keqiao are closed.

In addition, the deterioration of the external environment, such as Sino US trade war, will probably exacerbate the textile industry which has already been less prosperous. Under the influence of many bad factors, the polyester factory has finally released the expected notice of overhaul and production reduction, but it seems that the downstream terminals are still performing poorly, and polyester production and marketing remain flat.

What is the trend of PTA in the short run?

At present, the contradiction of PTA is changing. With Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 250 thousand tons / year PX production line has been gradually put into production, the market is worried about the supply side of PX. However, the price difference of PX- naphtha has dropped to near the cost level. The willingness of manufacturers to raise prices is stronger, and the possibility of continued decline is smaller. The approximate rate will remain weak.

At present, PTA maintains high processing error, but the cash flow of polyester enterprises is exhausted, and the contradiction of profit distribution becomes the main contradiction.

In the future, polyester enterprises begin to reduce production under the pressure of high inventory and low cash flow. The pressure of industrial chain is continuously upward. The contradiction will continue to intensify. It is expected that PTA futures will have a downside risk in May. At the same time, the market is worried that spot prices will fall, and there will be a lack of positive factors in the short term, and PTA will be weak.