China Has Imposed Tariffs On These 781 Categories Of Textiles And Garments Imported From The United States, And Often Spends More Money On Sea Purchases.

In the evening of May 13th, "news broadcast" broadcast the international sharp comment "China has made preparations for comprehensive response"!

Subsequently, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice on increasing the tariff rate on some imported commodities originating in the United States.

In accordance with the laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China foreign trade law and the People's Republic of China import and export tariff Ordinance and the basic principles of international law, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to increase the tariff rate on some imported commodities originating in the United States since 0 June 1, 2019.

For 2493 items of tax items, 25% duty is imposed; 20% duty is imposed on 1078 items of tax items; 10% duty is added to 974 items of tax items.

A tariff of 5% is still imposed on the 595 items of tax items listed.

In addition to 25% of the tariff items, it contains about 562 items of textile and clothing items. In addition to 20% of the tariff items, it contains about 113 items of textile and clothing items. In addition, 10% of the tariff items contain 100 tax items, including 6 tax items.

Haitong Securities analyst Liang Xi believes that China's textile and garment export growth in the short term is still stable or stable.

Data from the first textile network show that in 2019 1-4, China's textile and clothing exports were expected to fall, and textile and clothing exports were 75 billion 764 million US dollars, down 3.69% from the same period last year. The trade data have gradually returned to normal level after experiencing external factors such as looting export and the Spring Festival effect.

Among them, textile exports amounted to $36 billion 672 million, an increase of 0.81% over the same period, and exports of clothing and accessories amounted to $39 billion 92 million, down 7.56% from the same period last year.

Continue to show the strong differentiation of textiles and clothing.

In RMB 1-4, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 515 billion 820 million yuan in 2019, up 1.56% from the same period last year, which is closely related to the significant depreciation of the RMB in April compared with the same period last year.

The 125th Canton Fair, which has just concluded, clinch a turnover of US $29 billion 730 million, down 1.16% from last spring's fair, which shows that exports remain under pressure in the context of slowing global economic and trade.

According to monthly data, China's textile and apparel exports in April were 19 billion 460 million US dollars, down 9.43% from the same period last year, the lowest monthly export volume since April in 2012.

Among them, textile exports amounted to 9 billion 789 million US dollars, down 6.90% compared with the same period last year, and clothing exports were 9 billion 671 million US dollars, down 11.85% compared with the same period last year.

It is worth noting that clothing exports have been below the "abnormal" phenomenon of textiles for second consecutive months.

It is understood that since March 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on China officially entered into force in July 6, 2018, August 23, 2018, September 24, 2018, May 10, 2019, the 4 time that the added time is 21 days, 15 days, 6 days and 4 days respectively.

Haitong Securities analyst Liang Xi said that short-term textile and garment export growth still has certain stability support, mainly based on several aspects:

First, referring to the gap between tariff levy and entry into effect in September 2018 (6 days), and the growth rate of textile and clothing exports in 9 and October (the highest value in 2015 and the same period), the export grab effect has a strong driving effect, but taking into account that the duty time is in the first half of the month, the driving force is weaker or weaker than September.

The two is the process of placing orders to organize production and customs pportation. There is a certain interval between them. It is expected that some of the orders that have been produced will still be exported according to the original rhythm.

This part of the order may be declared for export in June.

The three is to take into account the uncertainty of the 300 billion US dollar tax rate on Chinese goods.

In Liang Xi's view, the 200 billion dollar list has a limited impact on the garment plate.

In the 200 billion US dollar list of China's products, the textile and garment related products include silk, animal hair yarn and its fabrics, cotton, knitted hooks, hat, ornaments and leather products, while China's exports to the United States, such as woven garments, knitted garments and household textile products, are not included in the list.

From the industry level, the total value of the main products exported to the United States in 2018 amounted to 9 billion US dollars, accounting for 8.3% of the total export volume of China, accounting for 3.3% of the total export volume of China's textile and clothing.

Liang Xi analysis shows that Vietnam has a certain substitution effect as a low cost representative of Southeast Asian countries.

We believe that the United States increases the tax rate or pfers some of the orders to the low cost Southeast Asian countries represented by Vietnam, thus analyzing the correlation between the export of goods from Vietnam, Bangladesh and Kampuchea to the United States, and the monthly growth rate of China's goods exports to the United States.

Data show that from June 2018 to February 2019, the correlation coefficients between the three and the monthly growth rate of China's goods exports to the United States were -0.76, -0.24 and 0.38 respectively. The negative correlation between Vietnam and China was obviously stronger than that of other countries. We believe that Vietnam's domestic export orders have been replaced by some domestic manufacturing industry orders in recent years.

Liang Xi further said that China has a significant industrial chain advantage until now.

In the relaxed international trade environment, it will still be the best choice for export destination countries. The main reasons include: first, in 2012-2017 years, China has always been the largest country in the world textile and garment export, which accounted for 35.3% in 2017, up from second EU 27.9pct, and two of Vietnam's textile raw materials mainly rely on imports. USDA data show that 2011-2018 of Vietnam's cotton imports account for more than 80% of its total supply, which may lead to a certain risk in the delivery of products. Three, it is difficult to pfer quickly in the short term production, the negotiations between enterprises and local governments and suppliers, and the agreement on delivery and quality of products will take time to stabilize.

Li Chao, a researcher at Huatai Securities, admitted that due to the difficulty of the pfer of industrial chain in the short term, export enterprises may choose to negotiate with the suppliers and American buyers on the micro level.

The impact of US tariffs on China's exports and GDP is not immediately reflected in the short term, so it will be a slow process.