Market Analysis: Supply And Demand Status And Forecast Of PX In Asia

At the end of 2018, Asia's PX capacity totaled 49 million 352 thousand tons, mainly in China, South Korea, India and Japan, accounting for about 69.79% of the total capacity.

Asian PTA has a total capacity of 81 million 805 thousand tons, of which the first three China, India and South Korea's PTA capacity accounts for 79.34% of the total capacity.

If the production of 1 tons PTA is calculated at 0.655 tons PX, PX capacity in Asia will still be 4 million 230 thousand tons by the end of 2018.

Looking back at China's domestic situation, by the end of 2018, China's PX production capacity was 14 million 210 thousand tons, while the PTA production capacity was as high as 49 million 290 thousand tons, and the domestic PX capacity gap was as high as 18 million 75 thousand tons.

In 2019, China is facing the peak of PX production. What will happen to the domestic and Asian PX supply and demand pattern after the expansion of PX capacity?

In 2019, the new capacity of PX in Asia included Hengli Group Dalian 4 million 500 thousand tons, Sinochem Hongrun 600 thousand tons, Hainan refining and chemical 1 million tons, Hengyi Brunei 1 million 500 thousand tons, Zhejiang Petrochemical 4 million tons, and Liaoyang Petrochemical capacity expansion 230 thousand tons, totaling 11 million 830 thousand tons.

Among them, PX is mainly pported to China to digest itself, so the capacity is calculated in China's capacity.

By the end of 2019, China's PX capacity is expected to reach 26 million 40 thousand tons, and Asian PX capacity will reach 61 million 182 thousand tons.

In 2019, the new capacity of PTA in Asia included 1 million 200 thousand tons of India JBF Petrochemical Industries Co, 2 million 500 thousand tons of Dalian of Hengli Group, 1 million tons of Sichuan energy chemical industry, 2 million tons of new energy Dushan energy, a total of 6 million 700 thousand tons.

By the end of 2019, China's PTA capacity is expected to reach 54 million 790 thousand tons, and Asian PTA capacity will reach 88 million 505 thousand tons.

Through formula calculation, it is estimated that in the end of 2019, the PX capacity gap in Asia will be 3 million 210 thousand tons, a decrease of 1 million 20 thousand tons compared with 2018.

China's PX capacity gap is 9 million 847 thousand and 500 tons, a decrease of 8 million 337 thousand and 500 tons.

Overall, even though China's PX has larger capacity, the PX in Asia is still in short supply.

Domestic PX will continue to maintain a serious imbalance between supply and demand.

Appendix: Asian PX's new capacity in 2019

Asia PTA new capacity in 2019