Trade Frictions Intensified. To Avoid Tax, At Least 10 Freighters Accelerate To China.
The Sino US trade war was heating up. On Monday night, China announced that it would raise tariffs on US $60 billion from June 1st. It is reported that at least 10 bulk carriers are going to China's ports.
Fiji, a bulk carrier, queued for a week before entering Dalian Port, and landed 67113 tons of American soybeans on Sunday. According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA), the amount of soybeans that China has purchased but has not yet arrived is about 7 million 400 thousand tons. Another 468 thousand tons of American corn, 103 thousand tons of pork and 704 thousand bales of cotton have been sold to China, but they haven't arrived yet.
Ken Morrison, an independent analyst at St. Louis, said: "the sales of registered accounts have been slow lately. The chance of cancellation has increased. " The NCCA is also worried about docking with cotton orders. Campic, vice president of the organization's economic policy analysis department, said: "we are worried that they will not sell what we sell to Jody Campiche".
In the energy sector, a LNG freighter is still on the way. Liquefied natural gas is also locked in China's tariff list. According to information, Iberica Knutsen left the Sabine Pass receiving station of Cheniere energy in April 10th and is now heading for Taizhou, Zhejiang.
The super tanker Alsace also moved at full speed to Qingdao port, which previously carried us crude oil in the Caribbean. The oil carrying about 2 million barrels of oil is scheduled to arrive at its final destination on May 21st.
In July last year, a cargo ship carrying us soybeans flew to China at the maximum speed, hoping to catch up with the arrival of Dalian Port before the new tariff came into effect. However, it eventually failed to catch up, making tens of thousands of Chinese networks panic.
Tight trade relations have severely hit the US petrochemical industry: 8000 or unemployed.
The US Chemical Industry Council (ACC) has said that since the shale gas revolution in the United States, 325 new chemical projects have been announced in the United States, with a total investment of more than 194 billion US dollars, of which 63% are foreign direct investment or foreign partners. It is estimated that the trade surplus of us chemicals will soar to 72 billion US dollars from about 33 billion US dollars in 2017, but the escalation of trade wars between China and the United States will probably make the expected figure empty. In 2023, China's counter measures will also affect the US chemical industry, and the increase in tariffs caused by export to China will lead to higher costs, which may lead to some special polymer producers in the United States reducing or terminating their production in the us so as to maintain their competitiveness in the Chinese market. After all, no enterprise is willing to lose the Chinese market.
According to the Houston chronicle, the tense trade relationship with China has already struck the petrochemical industry along the Gulf of Mexico. Now the Trump administration is going to levy a new round of tariffs. Enterprises will face rising costs, shrinking profits and more difficult access to the market. If the trade frictions with China are escalating, thousands of jobs and billions of investment in the US will be put into danger.
Because natural gas production is abundant and economical, many energy and chemical enterprises have invested billions of dollars in the Gulf of Mexico to build chemical plants, and exported products to the international market through the Houston channel. Many investments are based on the growing demand for chemical products in China. However, now these chemical enterprises have to face the possibility of the decline of China's market demand, resulting in global supply and price declines.
According to the Houston chronicle, all of this has weakened the return on investment of $140 billion worth of petrochemical projects along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, which may cause companies to be hesitant to expand production or build new plants.
According to the US chemical Council, China's increase in tariffs on American exports may lead to more than 8000 workers in the U.S. chemical industry. The Trade Organization says that up to 46000 people in the companies that provide goods and services for these chemical companies will be negatively affected by tariff increases.
In response to the US tariff policy, China has a total of 110 billion US dollars, including $10 billion 800 million in chemical and plastic products, which have been implemented and will soon be implemented. Two major polyethylene products are seriously affected, while polyethylene plays an important role in chemical products exported from the Gulf of Mexico. China also levied 25% tariffs on LPG and exported the same lot from the Gulf of Mexico.
Houston based Phillips 66 executives said this week that trade frictions are cutting margins on chemicals and LPG. Phillips 66, vice president of investor relations Jeff Dietert, said the trade dispute "is impeding the overall economic growth of the United States and the demand for us chemical products, especially some refined products."
Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross said recently that the tariff increase brought about by trade frictions will have a widespread impact in the whole country. The high proportion of natural gas and oil industry in the economic structure made Texas the center of trade friction. At the moment, there is no sign of ending.
Data show that there are nearly 5000 energy companies in Houston alone, of which 250 thousand employees account for nearly 10% of the local workforce. The oil and gas industry has provided millions of jobs to the United States. No wonder there are comments that when the industry is affected by the government's erroneous policies, the consequences will ultimately be borne by the American people.
Although crude oil has not been included in the tariff list of the two countries, the US crude oil export to China has been affected. In the first 6 months of March, China imported only 1 million 640 thousand barrels of US crude oil, much less than 60 million 500 thousand barrels in the previous 6 months. In the past 4 months, China has never imported crude oil from the United States.
Polyester industry chain has become a mess
Last Friday, the US imposed a tariff of $200 billion on products. China also quickly made counter measures. The price of exchange rate, stock market and commodity almost fluctuated in a short time, and the polyester industry chain was not spared.
As a "PTA", it can be said to be the first to bear the brunt. In May 14th, Zheng Shang also issued a risk warning letter to remind the recent fluctuations in cotton, cotton yarn and PTA and other futures, hoping that investors can do a good job of risk prevention and rational investment.
Polyester industry chain has become a mess.
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PX prices drop again and again.
PX is actually quite miserable. Since March, when Hengli's PX plant was put into operation, it was hard to live. How to say it was also a "profit making king" in the past? How could it be mixed up now?
No, after entering this week, the price of PX dropped again. In May 13th, the price of PX outer market (FOB Korea) was still 888 US dollars / ton, in May 14th it turned into 874 US dollars / ton, compared with 845 US dollars per ton in May 15th.
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PTA large fluctuations
On the first three days of this week, PTA futures all closed down, with the main 1909 contracts falling 2.2%, 4.4% and 1.62% respectively for three consecutive days.
The 1907 contract on the 14 day is the intraday limit, the 15 day's decline is still larger, the final plunge 4.2%. But by May 16th (Thursday), PTA futures began to rebound.
The original "stable mount" PTA spot price also started diving, and the 15 day fell by nearly 500 yuan per ton.
It can only be said that such ups and downs are really exciting.
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Polyester restarting downstream channel
As the downstream of polyester industry chain, polyester filament can not be spared. Since mid April, the price of polyester filament has been falling, falling by nearly 1000 yuan, due to poor production and marketing and large inventory.
By the end of last week, the polyester plant launched a wave of price promotions, cleaned up the inventory and added some polyester factories to stop production and maintenance, and the production capacity also dropped a lot.
Originally thought that this inventory pressure is small, always able to stabilize the price, a few days to live a safe life, I never imagined that the whole polyester industry chain collapsed again, what else can we do? Continue to fall in price.
Why is there such a situation?
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Sino US trade friction is the fuse.
The recent most intensified Sino US trade friction is the most direct fuse.
On Friday, the $200 billion tax increase in the HS50-60 chapter on US exports in 2017 is as follows:
Polyester products involve filament and staple fibers in chemical fibers. According to China's export volume in 2018, 1 million 30 thousand tons of direct spun polyester and short exports and 2 million 270 thousand tons of polyester exports were exported, of which 40 thousand tons were exported to the United States and 70 thousand tons of polyester filament, totaling 110 thousand tons.
In addition to the direct export of polyester raw materials, our total exports of textiles and clothing totaled US $276 billion 700 million in 2018, of which US $45 billion was exported to the United States. The tax increase included in the list is about 10 billion dollars, accounting for 3.6%. According to the 2018 polyester production of 34 million 500 thousand tons, of which 20% of the downstream textile and garment exports, and 3.6% of exports to the United States, the demand for converted polyester is expected to be around 250 thousand tons.
Compared with the absolute volume of 45 million tons of polyester in China, this data is not big, but it has played a driving role.
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Terminal weaving overall downturn
Compared with the recent Sino US trade friction that attracted most people's eyeballs, the depression of terminal weaving Market is the most fundamental reason for the overall downturn of polyester.
After mid April, the situation of weaving enterprises began to shrink greatly. Some enterprises said that the number of orders received in April this year was only 1/3-1/2 in previous years, while the inventory of grey fabrics increased by half a month compared with the same period last year.
The market is so sluggish, resulting in polyester factory produced polyester can not be well digested, stock has been accumulated, and PX and MEG end is oversupply, long-term in a downturn. In the whole polyester industry chain, only PTA supply and demand balance is basically balanced, and profits are almost eaten by PTA.
Polyester factory "grab class to seize power"
PTA occupies most of the profits, and other links in the industrial chain will naturally not be reconciled.
The Sino US trade frictions intensified, commodity futures began to fluctuate violently, and profit distribution seemed to have changed. PX and MEG are "powerless" because of their own reasons, but for polyester filament, this is not the case.
In recent years, the production capacity of polyester filament has become more and more concentrated in China.
In 2019, Tong Kun, Heng Yi, Xin Fengming, Sheng Hong, Hengli, Rongsheng six enterprises had more than half of the total capacity, which made polyester leading enterprises have a strong voice in the pricing of polyester.
Production pattern of polyester fiber in China in 2019
Recently, polyester factories have opened production and maintenance. Last week, the polyester operating rate dropped by 1.6%, while the PTA operating rate almost unchanged. The supply and demand relationship has been slightly reversed.
Even if the price has dropped a little, PTA still occupies most of the profits in the polyester industry chain, which is not unacceptable to PTA enterprises.
Conclusion: the Sino US trade friction may become an opportunity. In the future, the profit distribution of the polyester industry chain will probably change from PTA to "PTA" and "polyester two".
But how to develop it will take time to test.
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