Yesterday, The Sino US Economic And Trade White Paper Was Released. What Signals Did It Reveal?

Yesterday, the Information Office of the State Council published the white paper on China's position on Sino US economic and trade consultations and held a press conference.

The 8300 character white paper introduces the basic situation of Sino US economic and trade consultations, expounds the four major positions of the Chinese side: 1., mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit; 2., consultations should be mutually oriented and faith-based; 3., China will never budge on principle; 4., no challenge can stop China's progress.

Among them, it also showed the three time that the United States had gone back and forth in the process of economic and trade consultations, pointing out that there were many twists and turns in Sino US economic and trade consultations, and the responsibility was entirely in the US side.

China's attitude has always been clear: China will not be afraid of any pressure and ready to meet any challenge.

The door is wide open, and fight to the end.

On the press conference, facing the reporter's question, "the US side said that the damage to the Sino US economic and trade frictions was mainly caused by the Chinese side and little impact on the US side". Wang Shouwen, Vice Minister of Commerce and deputy representative of international trade negotiations, said there was no winner in the trade war.

World Bank quoted CNBC as saying that Deutsche Bank has calculated that the US stock market has lost 5 trillion US dollars in the past 17 months.

In May alone, the value of the US stock market evaporated more than 3 trillion US dollars, which was equivalent to a fall of "Britain" (2018 GDP of the United Kingdom was about $2 trillion and 823 billion).

Of course, for China, the impact of trade friction should not be underestimated, and it will also have a certain impact on the global economy.

So what kind of signal does the white paper convey to the trade friction?

The reporter interviewed several big heads to see their analysis.

One

The core message of this white paper is that China hopes to reach a Sino US agreement in a mutually respectful way, with equality and mutual benefit.

The United States adopts unconventional and irrational measures to compel China to compromise and damage China's national interests.

In the next stage of negotiations, the Chinese side should hope that the US side will adopt a policy of politicizing and securing.

This is very important. After all, China and the United States have chips in their hands.

China's biggest brand is the Chinese market.

By the end of 2017, China has become the largest domestic market in the world, and the scale of the market is still expanding.

How does China respond?

I think two hands must be prepared, both hands must be hard.

On the one hand, China should more vigorously expand reform and opening up. This is not only the requirement of the United States, but also the need for its own economic pformation and upgrading.

Among them, substantial progress should be made in domestic economic reform, especially in the reform and marketization of state-owned enterprises.

In terms of opening up, China's market access to foreign enterprises should comply with the requirements of the new foreign investment law, truly implement the national treatment of foreign-funded enterprises, reduce the tariff level at the same time, reduce the non-tariff barriers, make foreign investment enterprises benefit, reduce the trade imbalance between China and foreign countries, and also benefit the domestic people (603883).

On the other hand, China should also strengthen its precise counter-measures against customs duties and export controls in the United States. It will play a deterrent role in the United States by ingeniously using China's cards in agricultural imports, rare earth, aircraft, automobiles and other industries through similar forms of integrity list.

China's actions will have a greater impact on US stocks.

It is said that Trump will check the fluctuation of American stocks every few hours. He even claimed: "if the Dow fell by more than 1000 points per day, the president should be installed in a huge cannon, and he will be sent to heaven at a very fast speed."

Therefore, we can improve the art of struggle in this area and strengthen our research on the United States, including listening to the views of the international community.

Two

After reading the white paper, I have three impressions:

1., China is very tough, and does not want to fight or fight. It is ready to continue to play. It is no longer the attitude of the past and the high expectations of the negotiations. The major change is estimated to be related to the US side step by step.

2. the responsibility for the failure of the negotiations lies with the US side. Although the US side may not agree with this conclusion, it is a very important political demand at home.

3. China does not intend to compromise. China needs the United States to abolish all tariffs and expect a relatively balanced bilateral negotiation agreement.

Is this the bottom line of China?

It is not very clear, and it is estimated that the United States will not compromise or meet our requirements.

It is estimated that the difficulty is relatively large, so the parties should prepare for the risk response.

From the point of view of the United States and the latest series of measures, it is still a great probability for us to levy tariffs on US $300 billion exports to the US in June, and the white paper has increased this possibility.

Personally, I believe that the Chinese side should remain calm after the talks broke down. The white paper is still released early. It is possible to intensify contradictions and wait until the end of June.

However, compared with Trump's extreme practice and comprehensive attack, China can not be too weak, weak and useless.

Personal judgment, until the two sides of the market and the economy are seriously affected, public opinion will put more pressure on the political and government, things will improve.

The relationship between the two sides can not be deteriorated for a long time, but it needs a process.

Three

The white paper has basically continued the Chinese government's consistent position, that is to say, "open the door to talk, and fight to the end."

This white paper is more comprehensive, systematic and detailed. The purpose is to show the rational position of the Chinese government to the whole world and declare that if any trade war goes on, any damage caused by it should be borne by the United States.

I think the problem lies in two aspects. From the side of the United States, there are great differences between the three main ideas of President Trump, the White House Trade policy-makers and the two parties of the United States Congress.

From the side of China, we can see from the news previously disclosed that China does not want to write some commitments which the United States believes is of vital importance in the open contract terms. Instead, it wants them to be a policy commitment, which is not used to western thinking that is clear and workable.

In my opinion, China should consider and understand Westerners' thinking and behavior patterns more in this respect and adopt targeted measures instead of unilaterally standing on their own side to think about problems and do things.

I have always been a strong supporter of free trade for trade issues.

My view is simple: no matter what the US does, China should increase its opening up to the outside world.

Therefore, China's best response is to unilaterally reduce tariffs and reduce the threshold for foreign investment access, while strengthening domestic economic reform efforts to eliminate all obstacles and drawbacks that do not conform to market economy and economic liberalization.

I think that "tit for tat with tit for tat" is not the right way to deal with trade wars, because economic trade and war are not the same thing. The purpose of economic and trade is not to defeat them, but to strive for the best interests of our country and its people.

Four

The white paper fully expounds the Chinese position of the Chinese government on trade consultation and has a positive and positive effect on eliminating some misunderstandings that may exist in the international community and in China.

At yesterday's press conference, the Ministry of Commerce stressed the "three needs" of Sino US agreement.

I estimate that since the Sino US trade is highly complementary and mutually beneficial, there is no suspense in the final agreement.

The only uncertainty is whether to reach an agreement within the year or to reach an agreement next year.

I think the probability of reaching an agreement within the year is still high.

If the stalemate period is extended, it will have a greater negative impact on the two economies and the global economy, and both China and the United States are likely to cut interest rates.

China can continue to cut interest rates and reduce its accuracy within the year.