5月財新中國服務業PMI降至52.7
6月5日公布的5月財新中國通用服務業經營活動指數(服務業PMI)錄得52.7,較4月回落1.8個百分點,為三個月以來最低,但增速仍然強勁。
此前公布的5月財新中國制造業PMI持平于50.2,兩大行業一平一落,導致5月財新中國綜合PMI錄得51.5,低于4月1.2個百分點。
財新中國服務業和綜合PMI走勢與統計局PMI并不完全一致。國家統計局公布的5月服務業商務活動指數為53.5,上升0.2個百分點;綜合PMI錄得53.3,比4月回落0.1個百分點。
5月服務業新訂單總量繼續上升,但增速放緩至三個月低點。受訪企業反映,新產品發布、促銷活動,帶動新訂單總量回升。制造業新訂單總量也加速增長,但整體水平仍屬溫和,二者綜合,5月新訂單溫和增長,增速為三個月以來最低。
5月制造業與服務業的新出口訂單量均小幅上升。其中服務業新出口訂單較4月明顯回落,僅出現微漲。部分企業反映,國際市場需求轉弱。制造業新出口訂單則重返擴張區間。兩大行業用工呈現分化。服務業用工規模繼續小幅上升,連續八個月保持擴張,企業反映,這與訂單需求增長有關。制造業用工則小幅下降。兩者綜合,5月用工規模出現三個月來首次下降,但收縮幅度極微。
5月服務業投入成本繼續上升,漲幅較上月有所放緩。受訪廠商反映,成本上升主要與原材料價格和薪酬上漲有關。制造業投入成本則僅溫和上漲。兩大行業綜合,投入成本繼續小幅上漲,漲幅繼續低于長期均值。
為了保持競爭力、吸引新訂單,5月中國企業定價能力受到限制,服務業收費價格僅略有上升,盈利空間進一步受到擠壓。與此同時,制造業出廠價格則與上月持平,終止了此前連續三個月的上升趨勢。
5月制造業信心度降至2012年4月有數據以來的最低點,服務業樂觀度也降至2018年7月以來最低。兩大行業企業對未來12個月的生產與經營前景信心度,降至2012年有數據以來最低。企業預期偏低,普遍與中美貿易爭端持續、全球需求偏弱有關。
財新智庫莫尼塔研究董事長、首席經濟學家鐘正生表示,5月中國經濟增長呈現一定放緩跡象,就業和企業信心問題尤其值得政策關注。
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