PTA Industry Chain Is Gloomy, Downstream Good, Hard To Change Market Decline.

Under the gloomy PTA industry chain, the downstream polyester filament is booming, and the market has been running for 3 consecutive days with high production and marketing.

However, the industry believes that in the supply of abundant supply, raw material prices downward and other negative impact, the downstream polyester filament "short-lived" market is difficult to sustain, the PTA market has not formed a continuous rebound of kinetic energy, the decline is still difficult to change.

Li Hong, the marketing manager of the Shandong Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd., said that the recent PTA mainstream suppliers have bought back the spot, while the supply surface is abundant, and the market price has fallen about 1000 yuan per ton.

It is understood that the recent Sichuan can invest 1 million tons / year PTA new plant put into operation, Ningbo Taiwan 1 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA device restart.

Although Shanghai Petrochemical 400 thousand tons / year PTA plant began to repair, but the domestic PTA load increased to 86.5%, is still at a high level.

PTA futures market has also declined sharply.

Although the trade war has weakened, the supply has been negative, and the commodity market has been falling down. The 1909 price of the main contract has fallen sharply, reaching a new low of 5352 yuan / ton last week.

Analysis of the industry, due to poor market turnover, PTA prices fell sharply, production profits fell, but the current PTA tons of products still earn about 550 yuan, so manufacturers will lower load willingness.

In addition, when the Shengda plant was put into operation, and the upstart device was restarted, the expected supply increased, and the PTA market is expected to remain weak.

From the perspective of PTA raw material PX, Hengli PX plant has been put into operation this year. The supply of goods is increasing and the price is down. It is difficult to form a cost support for the PTA market.

It is understood that in March 24th, Hengli first set of 2 million 500 thousand tons / year PX plant put into operation; in early May, another 2 million 250 thousand ton / year PX production line was also put into production, with a total capacity of 4 million 500 thousand tons / year.

Li Hong said that at present, Hengli petrochemical PX accounts for 24.3% of China's total capacity, and its daily output is 8000~9000 tons, and its PX is downstream of its own supply and directly enters the PTA plant through pipelines.

Hengli's PTA production capacity is 6 million 600 thousand tons / year, theoretically PX demand is 4 million 356 thousand tons. After the PX plant load increases, it will fully realize self-sufficiency. Before the new plant is put into operation, about half of its raw material PX will purchase domestic PX, and the other half will be obtained through imported shipments.

This means that Hengli will stop purchasing PX in the future. Asia's PX is turning direct to oversupply, and PX exporting countries such as Japan, Korea and India are facing tremendous pressure. The era of PX high profits will never return, opening up profits and competing price competition mode.

According to the statistics of Jin LIAN, the domestic PX operation rate is at 81.78%. With the Hengli Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand ton / year PX plant running at full capacity, the Luoyang Petrochemical 225 thousand ton / annual inspection and repair PX device has been restarted, and the supply of goods has increased.

Analysis of the industry, with the continuous increase in domestic supply, especially in Dalian Hengli PX self confession, the demand for PX cargo few, Japan and South Korea supply pressure increased, some enterprises have lowered the intention to start, short-term PX market is expected to be weak and volatile, it is difficult to form a strong support for PTA on the cost side.

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of chemical industry, said that the market price of polyester filament in the lower reaches of PTA has dropped to nearly 2 years in recent years, and in the face of production losses for a long time, the market has started to rebound, and there has been 3 consecutive days of high production and marketing.

However, as the downstream inventory remains high, pickup is still prudent, and it is difficult to drive PTA prices up.

It is understood that by the end of May, there will be about 40 days of terminal billet storage.

"Loom start load fell to about 75%, if the inventory is not smooth, the loom load will continue to decline.

After the phased replenishment of terminal factories, it takes time to digest polyester stocks, and the market lacks sustained good support. The situation of high production and marketing of polyester is difficult to maintain.

In the first half of June, the production and sale of polyester will be re entered into a downturn.

Meng Xianxing said.

From the macro environment, the Sino US trade war has entered a stalemate. The two sides are tough and have no latest news. The RMB exchange rate has a "7" pressure.

The macro environment is not good, or accelerate the pfer of textile and garment industry and order to Vietnam oriented Southeast Asian countries.

In May, the domestic textile market was not prosperous, and in June it was also difficult to make any substantial improvement. Textile factories did not have many new orders, and the demand for raw materials decreased, thus reducing the PTA market.

On the whole, under the premise of high inventory of grey fabrics, the high production and marketing of polyester is a flash in the pan Market. Under the high price of polyester raw materials, polyester is under the cost line, and the running price of polyester factories is also a helpless move.

Short term polyester market is hard to predict, so PTA will not have the power to continue to rebound.