Trend Of Polyester Staple Fiber: Short Term Small Rise, Long Term Fall Still Mainly

As of June 18th, the domestic average price of 1.4D polyester staple fiber was 7445 yuan / ton, down 13.71%, or 1183 yuan / ton, down 17.85%, or 1618 yuan / ton. Dachang quotes are generally concentrated in the range of 7300-7650 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation is about 50-100 yuan / ton.

The US crude oil inventories decreased by 812 thousand barrels to 482 million barrels last week, estimated to be 2 million 33 thousand barrels lower and Cushing inventories increased by 519 thousand barrels, the API said. If the OPEC+ continues to limit production in the second half of the year, the global crude oil inventories will be reduced by 500 thousand barrels per day, the OPEC Economic Commission said.

The international crude oil rose yesterday. In the extreme pessimism of market sentiment, the market ushered in the Sino US trade easing news. The long suppressed bulls once again started counterattack at the integer point. On the 18 day, the heads of state of China and the United States exchanged telephone calls. Trump said that he hoped to meet with the Chinese side during the G20 Osaka summit and further communicate bilateral relations and economic and trade cooperation. This news has boosted crude oil prices. In addition, Saudi Arabia has further reduced production and has taken practical action to set an example for extending production cuts. It will also pressure OPEC and other oil producers to help extend production cuts. This will also boost the market.

PTA was affected by the positive effects of the macroeconomic environment. It continued to rebound for several days. Yesterday's closing price was 5362 yuan / ton, up 76 yuan / ton. The operating rate of PTA is maintained at around 88.57%, while the supply side of PTA is relatively stable. However, there are still signs of expansion in the near future. Hon Bang Petrochemical 1 million 100 thousand tons / year equipment for troubleshooting in June 13th for two days; Hua Bin Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year installed in June 14th to stop production and maintenance; Yisheng Dalian in 1 million 125 thousand tons / year installed in June 11th for maintenance; Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment in mid June maintenance, maintenance for half a month. The operating rate of polyester has increased, and 88.56%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms have a 74% boot rate. Polyester production and sales in general 85%, polyester and short production and marketing 60%-180%. The terminal fabric links are getting worse, the inventory of gray cloth has accumulated to a historical high level, and the number of discontinued enterprises has increased. Terminal conduction to polyester terminal takes time. June PTA raw material terminal cost support, there is still a chance to rebound small probability.

The average price of downstream yarn 32S polyester yarn in Shandong area is 15380 yuan / ton, down 3.63%, or 580 yuan / ton, down 0.32%, or 50 yuan / ton, basically flat with the same period last year. According to the survey of cotton net, there are only 2-3 households in Heze, Shandong. Spin The factory had to start work for various reasons. Most other textile factories were on vacation and the vacation time was extended. Because of market sentiment is not optimistic, coupled with downstream demand downward, cotton mill, compensation inventory high. Some of the cotton yarn inventory reached one and a half months of production. Because there is no foreign trade order, textile and clothing consumption has to turn back to the domestic market, and the domestic market can not hold down, resulting in the decline of cotton yarn prices and the backlog of goods. It is expected that yarn prices will continue to fall due to cash flow problems in late cotton mills.

To sum up, business analysts believe that the trend of crude oil needs to be concerned with OPEC and the non OPEC joint conference which planned to be held in Vienna in late June. On the other hand, the latest trend of geopolitics, according to Reuters, Britain, Germany and Germany have drawn up a new plan to help Iran continue to abide by the 2015 version of the Iran nuclear agreement. The G20 summit is coming soon, and the market is expected to ease the Sino US stage easing. But if crude oil can be stabilized, more signals need to be confirmed. The increase in the OPEC yield reduction agreement and the decline in API stocks will also boost oil prices in the short term.

PTA short-term memory in multiple maintenance plans, may change the pattern of supply and demand in the past two months, but from the downstream yarn and grey fabric market, inventory is at a high level this year, the situation is not optimistic. In addition, the maintenance time of PTA is shorter in the near future. futures The market can be timely reflected, the impact of spot is limited, and there will be no substantial drop in prices until the next round of new maintenance plan is implemented. The driving force of PTA rise is not expected, and the price of yarn will be weak or down. Polyester staple fiber prices may rebound slightly in the past two weeks, in the long run, still fall.